We are presently in the midst of what is by a broad range of measures the most severe economic recession that this country has seen since WWII. It is also the most pervasively global recession that the world has seen since it recovered from WWII. This is the kind of event that naturally causes people to ask questions about what has caused it and to attempt to chart a steadier course for the future.
America was born in a debate between the Jeffersonian Democrats who saw the future as an agrarian nation buttressed by free and independent yeoman farmers and the federalists who looked to a future of international commerce and participation in the industrial revolution that was just getting under way. This basic polarity has been woven into out economic and political history.
We certainly ceased to be an agrarian nation and became an industrial one some time ago. In the past generation we have become fully enmeshed into a global industrial economy. All of these transitions have meant opportunities for some people and difficulties and disruptions for others. The family farm exist mostly in history and the small family business is well on the same road.
The great depression of the 1930s was a time when the society was overwhelmed by the effects of economic and social change. The new deal program was an effort to find a safe and steady course in this storm. From the perspective of history it is easy to see it as a more orderly plan than it really was. They were faced with unprecedented problems and tried numerous experiments. Some were fundamentally failures and even those that were basically successful had unanticipated consequences. However in sum they made America a more equitable society and a more stable economy.
It doesn’t seem particularly far fetched to view America in 2009 as being at a cross roads not unlike that of 1933. Our economic institutions are under severe strain. This is particularly apparent in the financial sector and the manufacturing sector. Trends that have been apparent for 30 years have come to a head. The nation must face questions about whether we are going to prop up existing companies such as auto manufactures and financial conglomerates with tax funded bailouts or embarking on a basic restructuring of these industries. These are legitimate and necessary questions that don’t have cut and dried answers.
The most fundamental question is what is the real nature of this crisis. It does appear to be different than any other post war recession. Can we realistically hope that the cliff diving slide that began last Summer will soon bottom out and that we will see a light at the end of the tunnel sometime this year? Many people would of course like to believe that. However, as of today I don’t think that there is much more than hope on which to hang that. There really aren’t any empirical signs pointing to recovery in the immediate future.
It seems probable that our economic institutions are going to change more substantially over the next two or three years than they have since WWII. That change can come about as a result of a public consensus that supports government programs to build a new economy or it can come about because things just collapse. The only thing that seems highly unlikely is that things will just go back to being the way they were in 2005-2006. Change in this situation is inevitable.
It doesn’t seem reasonable to me to view everybody who wants to discuss the direction of change as an anarchist who is attempting to pull down the entire fabric of corporate America. I have seen accusations along these lines on Daily Kos. It doesn’t seem reasonable to me to view anyone who thinks that government needs to assume a more active and aggressive role in this process as being a radical socialist.
I for one am relieved that we have a Democratic administration led by a man that I admire to lead us during such a difficult period. That does not mean that I am prepared to blindly follow anything they do without raising questions and criticisms. In my mind to do so would be to abrogate my duty as a responsible citizen and good sense as a reasonably intelligent adult.
Americans have been having these debates through out the history of our nation. They once flared into bloody war. We have always found a way to survive them as a nation and find a way forward. I expect that we will again this time. However that will not come about by avoiding the debate.