Will it be Governor Sarah Palin, how about former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich or even Governor Bobby Jindal? You know former Governor Mitt Romney and Governor Mike Huckabee are still in the running too. So who will it be? Who will be the one to try and take on President Barack Obama in 2012?
That's almost 3 years from now, why do we care, you say. Well, because they have already started running their campaigns. Whoever has a dream of being president is currently working every day of their lives trying to convince those of power to 'pick' them as the person next to run as the Republican nominee for president.
Let's fast forward ahead to the year of 2011.
Let's assume that the economy's recession (close to a depression) has gone away and jobs are being found aplenty. Let us also assume that our infrastructure has improved because of the many roads and bridges that were either built or repaired over the past 3 years. Let us also assume that our energy needs (demand for oil) have decreased because millions of Americans bought new cars with more miles per gallon ability instead of keeping their gas guzzling cars with the new Cost for Clunkers plan. Let's also assume that millions of Americans began buying new green long lasting light bulbs and took advantage of the federal governments tax breaks for making their homes more energy efficient. We should also assume that our electric grids across the country have been upgraded to the latest state of the art equipment and federal buildings across America are saving millions of dollars with new green technology in their buildings.
Let's also notice that we now have Universal health care. Just like former President George W Bush's prescription drug plan, Americans seem to be overall satisfied with their health care plans. Those that never had health insurance now have some, those that had some with their employers have seen no major changes in their plans, in fact, and they may have already seen a decrease in their monthly premiums. Most of American's medical records have now been moved into electronic databases where they can be access by any medical facility across America. Veterans especially begin seeing an immediate change in the way they get approved for health care and disability benefits because of the new record system. Let's also assume there's not been enough time to compare and learn all the effects of the new health care system; but at the moment, things are looking good, especially to those that never had the secure feeling of having health insurance for their family.
Let's take a look at education. New schools have been built and/or repaired across the country. Children have state of the art computers to improve their skills with. Teachers have been given more time to teach the children instead of teaching to the test as in the past. Millions more kids will be attending the newly created head start schools. Low income parents will be given the ability to go out and work while using the affordable child care plan that was created. Millions of parents will be reimbursed up to $4,000 for their kid's college's expenses with the new opportunity tax credit that was created. Teachers will have been rewarded for good teaching. Those applying for college grants will have it easier than before by just check marking their tax returns authorizing their tax information to be used, instead of having to fill out or make copies of everything repeatedly.
Foreign policy - what will it look like? That's a bit harder to predict, not knowing what other nations are doing or what they are planning; but let us assume because of the way they accepted President Obama and seemed to like him and his non-arrogance attitude that things calm down at least. The distrust in America goes away and the ability to negotiate improves across the world. Let's assume that we're for the most part out of Iraq by the end of 2011 as planned and as reported by the General in command today. Afghanistan's violence will have dropped by then and things are back to the way they were there in say 2003. Let's also assume that Israel and the Palestine have agreed to a peace treaty, which may be a weak one but at least things are calm at the moment.
Let us also assume that we have not been attacked in such a way as 9/11 at the WTC.
Which Republican would have the best chance of taking on President Barack Obama, the most successful president since Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan?
That's a hard one. The only thing that a Republican could possibly run on would be social policies like abortion, gay rights or gun laws. Perhaps they could also run on cutting the deficit; because by the mid 2012 Obama's administration won't have had time to cut it enough of it to really show improvement yet. However, if the economy, energy, health care, education and even our foreign policy seems to be running smoothly - most won't care (like now) about the deficit, they'll just be happy things are 'ok' now.
How about the likable factor; who can take on a man that is so well 'liked' as Obama and his family are?
As for Palin, Huckabee, Jindal, Romney and Gingrich - they are all out of the running; because each and every one of them would have voted no for the Recovery and Reinvestment Act in 2009 or refused to take money from the stimulus package. Each and everyone ridiculed Obama for wanting to get out of Iraq and talk more with other heads of state.
In my humble opinion, at this time, the person that would have even half a chance of beating Barack Obama in 2012 would have to be a very well liked, down to earth speaking, calm when debating, not arrogant, trusted and possibly someone that supported the Obama administration when it wasn't popular to do so. I know of only two men that could possibly pass all those criteria; Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger of California and Governor Charlie Crist of Florida. Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota could possibly pass the first part of the criteria.
Schwarzenegger is out unless the law is changed about being born in America. That leaves Crist and Pawlenty.
Governor Pawlenty is a likable character. He's friendly, willing to talk to liberal talk show hosts like Rachel Maddow about the things he cares about and he can be interesting to listen to. He doesn't try to attack the other guy; instead he tries to explain his own views more deeply. He's willing to take on some of his conservative friends. When asked if he agreed with Rush Limbaugh that he wishes the President would 'fail', Pawlenty said, "It would be a sad day if all the conservatives had to offer was a wish or a hope that the president would fail so that we could benefit". For these reasons, I think Pawlenty has a gathering chance to take on Obama in 2012.
Charlie Crist on the other hand was one of the first to come out in support of Obama's stimulus package. Albeit because his state was currently hurting because of loss of jobs which dropped his poll ratings. Crist went overboard with his support for the stimulus bill. He personally got on a stage and introduced President Obama to his voters; A man from the opposite party. He also went on talk shows in support of the bill.
If my predictions are correct about the economy, education, energy and foreign policies, Governor Charlie Crist will be looking pretty good in his own State by 2011. Jobs will be aplenty, homes will be more energy efficient, new cars will be on the road (new or repaired roads) and children will be attending state of the art schools. Millions of new college graduates will be getting those newly created jobs in America. It will be a hard choice for Floridians to choose from, Obama or Crist for President.
For Americans across the nation however, the choice will be simple. Barack H. Obama, 'Four More Years'.