The term "Nuclear Renaissance" brings to mind in many people's mind, the overtly transparent marketing sight-gag of "Clean Coal". Like "Clean Dirt" only...cleaner.
However, fortunately, the "Renaissance" was not of marketing origin nor was it a term to get people to believe nuclear is something it's not. "Nuclear Renaissance" is a *descriptive" term for 'what is' or the status of something, a process...
I just thought I share my view on that. Call it 'trolling' but I think it's good to examine terms we make assumptions about, often, as human beings. For example "nuclear waste". . .But that has been covered enough, I think, on the DK.
So, as to the State of the Real Live Take-No-Other-Generation Nuclear Renaissance, let's do the numbers...
The term "Nuclear Renaissance" brings to mind in many people's mind, the overtly transparent marketing sight-gag of "Clean Coal". Like "Clean Dirt" only...cleaner.
However, fortunately, the "Renaissance" was not of marketing origin nor was is a way to get people to believe nuclear is something it's not. "Nuclear Renaissance" is a *descriptive" term for 'what is' or the status of something.
I just thought I share my view on that. Call it 'trolling' but I think it's good to examine terms we make assumptions about often, as human beings. For example "nuclear waste". . .But that has been covered enough, I think, on the DK.
So, as to the State of the Real Live Take-No-Other-Generation Nuclear Renaissance, let's do the numbers...
The Big News was the recent Chinese announcement that they just can't live with only 62 more nuclear GWs (for those with their abacuses out, that's 62 1,000 MWs or, about 54 new reactors). The Chinese do like to make efficient choices so it's not "54 new plants", they bundle them together in groups of 4, 6 and 8. Maybe odd numbers are bad Feng shui for the Chinese, I will ask next time if I run into to my Guandong Power Company contact ever again. Oh, so I do digress. They can't live with 62 more GWs, the are looking at 71 GWs of atomic power.
This, in anyone's books, is ambitious. Especially as they are almost starting from scratch. The are intent on trying to stymie the growth of coal power there, which provides 80% of their generation. Indeed they would like to replace the coal capacity with nuclear capacity.
This 71 GWs is do to come on line in the next 12 years. 2009-20202. That includes all of 2020 as opposed to January 1, 2020. In case you were wondering where I got the 12 from.
All this is really dependent on many factors, almost all of them "component" related. The biggest bottleneck in the Nuclear Renaissance is the result of its success: to many orders, not enough factories to make the large forgings necessary for these new, Generation III reactors. It doesn't effect only the Chinese but all new builds everywhere.
So, this leads directly to the other interesting development in the Nuclear Renaissance: the expansion of the component base the expanding nuclear industry. Japan Steel Works, one of the only makers of new, extra-large heavy components in the 600 ton range using 14,000 ton hydraulic presses, is good for about 4 reactor's worth of heavy components a year. Sooooo...because the are making tons of cash filling current orders, they have started the tripling of their production facilities so they can get up to 9 full reactor's quantity of nuclear grade reactor casings, reactor lids, bases, etc. But wait! There is more! The JSW is not the only one.
China First Heavy Industries and China Erzhong are both building capacity to what JSW expects to achieve by 2012. That comes out to 27 reactors component standards per year, or, about 1 reactor every 2 weeks. OMZ Izhora is another company, having gone through several permutations since the all of the U.S.S.R. and is responsible for most heavy forgings for the successful VVER reactor line that Russia is building there, and in China and India. Shanghai Electric Group, another Chinese company with strong state presence, Doosan in S. Korea, Le Creuso in France, Sheffield Forgemesters in the north of England (ramping up for expected order of the very large 1700 MW EPR new builds) and Larsen & Toubro, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Bharat Forge Ltd are also expanding or building new capacity. This is also not a complete list. This is real money being invested.
So...to distill this down, by 2015 capacity for new nuclear components should be up to what it was in the late 1970s, approx. 1 new reactor per week or 52 reactors a year, which translates very roughly to around 63 GWs per year of new nuclear power potential. There is a very good article on all this at Nuclear Engineering International magazine here, albeit it's already slightly out date:
http://www.neimagazine.com/...
(this is not THE "NEI" but a different organization and publication).
So...more numbers...from India.
India is engaged right now...actually due to start tomorrow, with Westinghouse to discuss building at least 4 AP1000s there as part of the 20 or so GWs of new nuclear by the year 2020. The gov't, with a very strong new mandate to govern India, is expected to really push through these new builds. It is seen, correctly, as part of the overall stimulus package, as it is in China. 6 new reactors under construction now are expected to on line over the next 24 months.
India, for nuclear geeks, is interesting because it is the only country in the world that is still interested in building sub-1000 MW reactors in the 220 to 700 MW range. For developing countries these 'small' reactors are ideal for underdeveloped grids national grids or decentralized regional ones. They are also using Canadian style Heavy Water Reactors suited to burn thorium, and not uranium fuel. More on that in another diary.
Lastly, India is also in the process of completing it's Fast Breeder Reactor reactor, one of 5 that are supposedly going to be "very cheap" and not the historic opposite of most FBRs, that is, very expensive. The Indians, along with the Japanese and Russian, are the leading FBR nations.
This diary is focused on three areas: China, India and the suppliers. Consider it a "Part I" of dozens as I report on the progress of the "Renaissance", it's ups and downs (next one will focus on the 'down side' of this).
Oh, yeah, China, again. So, the 2020 date of 71 GWs is very ambitious. Those interested for whatever reason in nuclear energy for the U.S. will really have to start looking at what is going on in China with their program. They've just broken ground for the two AP1000s. They have a spate of Russian and indigenously designed reactors already under construction and a few reactors are going on every year. Their 2030 goal, is 160 GWs or 130 reactors plus or minus 10. But the Chinese are also interested in exporting their reactors...so they will by lobbying countries to adopt their reactors as answering their carbon mitigation needs. Their natural market is South Asia and Africa.
So, watching how these turn out: safety, price, waste, budgets, capacity, and above all "scheduling" will be in large part, a determining factor in how well this goes to developing Yankee Nuclear Energy. I will, of course, report all this as milestones are reached, or not.
Remember, for the latest in the world of Generation IV Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors go to:
energyfromthorium.com/forum and nucleargreen.blogspot.com
Next: Japan and Russia.
David
Left-atomics.blogspot.com