On the heels of endorsements from the Washington Post, the Martinsville Bulletin, and the Bristol Herald-Courier, state Sen. Creigh Deeds has vaulted into the lead in the Democratic primary race for Virginia Governor.
The new Public Policy Polling survey (PDF link) shows Deeds scoring 27% of the vote, followed by former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe at 24%, and former state Del. Brian Moran at 22%, with 26% undecided. In the previous poll, McAuliffe had led the field with 29% and Moran and Deeds were tied at 20%.
PPP attributes to "[t]wo major developments" in the race:
The first is Deeds’ endorsement by the Washington Post. He has gone from 11% in northern Virginia to 23%. With 30% of the primary electorate coming from that region that alone accounts for more than half of his jump from 20 to 27%.
The second is a decline in support for Terry McAuliffe in the areas where Brian Moran has run television ads attacking him. In the last survey McAuliffe was running at 33% in Hampton Roads and 34% in greater Richmond. He’s now declined to 25 and 23% respectively in those markets.
"We’ve been saying for months this was anyone’s game and it’s more true now than ever," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "All three candidates have a perfectly reasonable chance of coming out on top next Tuesday."
Debnam's assertion that any of the three candidates could win is played out in the numbers, although the trends do not look good for Brian Moran. Further, the trends also seem to demonstrate the relative shallowness of McAuliffe's support, with this being his first foray into state politics. If we are to accept PPP's argument on the efficacy of Brian's ad campaign, then it would lend credence to the argument that McAuliffe's support might be wide but only goes skin deep.
In 2005, Creigh Deeds came within 360 votes of beating this year's GOP Gov. nominee, Bob McDonnell. Virginia still is a purple, rather than blue state. But we are more than 400 votes bluer than we were in 2005. We have a chance to keep our momentum going and to retain the governor's mansion in Richmond by nominating Sen. Creigh Deeds to be governor.