Skip to main content

The current stimulus math for Main Street just isn't there. This becomes self-evident when one takes into consideration the Spring 2009 Report released by the National Association of State Budget Officers. Words like "untenable" and "gruesome" pepper the finance blogs with regard to the upcoming pain that states will endure as the unemployment rate deepens, with many pundits telling us that this coincidental (not "lagging," or "leading" as some would attempt to misinform us) indicator of the current state of the economy will continue to get worse perhaps through much of 2011.  (So much for the 2010 mid-terms.)

As any sane, Progressive Democrat will tell you, a jobless recovery is not a recovery. Then again, even the Federal Reserve tacitly acknowledges this if you read the fine print.

Today, the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will come out with their May 2009 unemployment report (in a few hours), and the general consensus among the finance community (see: "U.S. Economy: Services Shrink, Job Losses Mount") is that the highly-publicized, albeit misleading, U.3 Index will reach 9.2%, with the more comprehensive U.6 Index (which includes those that have been unemployed for more than a year as well as the underemployed) expected to exceed 16%. Some respected economic historians tell us the national unemployment rate will, as of today, actually exceed 20%, even though the official numbers will understate that.  Then again, it's a widely accepted observation of our current reality that you always have to read these federal unemployment reports to catch the fine print comment, 12 paragraphs into the press release, where they quickly mention that they've "revised the previous month's report downward some 40,000 to 80,000 jobs." It's all but guaranteed that it'll be in today's report just like it's been in 22 of the last 24 month's reports, too. So much for state budget payroll tax revenue projections for the next few years.

A quick review of recent chain store revenue may be had here in, "Chain Store Sales Plummet," where we learn that these business revenues dropped a record 4.6% in May. I work in the software industry where my small business is focused upon providing finance technology to retailers. What I'd heard (it was consumers spending their income tax refunds and nothing more) from retailers across the country, which flew in the face of false MSM memes about so-called, improving retail stats over the past few months, is very much reiterated in a couple of sentences from the story linked earlier in this paragraph:  


After a peculiar pick up in April, the chain store sales trendline has reverted to a complete collapse, dropping a whopping and record 4.6% in May. Looks like tax refund stimulus benefits have done their temporary magic and now all trends are back on their usual course.

In other words, so much for state budget sales tax revenue projections for the next few years, too.

So, with our economy "recovering," state budgets for basic services are tanking: "States' Budget Woes Are Poised to Get Even Worse."


States' Budget Woes Are Poised to Get Even Worse
By AMY MERRICK
Wall Street Journal
June 3, 2009

State budgets look bad now, but they are set to get worse.

The bulk of funds from the federal government's stimulus package will be allocated by 2011, but tax collections aren't likely to be enough to take their place -- even if the economy is recovering.

The drop in tax revenue is set to be deeper and last longer as collections have become more sensitive to business cycles in recent years. At the same time, states face growing health-care costs and the need to replenish pension programs funded by decimated investments. And some of the stimulus funds expand programs that will require state money to sustain them after the federal largesse runs out.

"There are so many issues that go way beyond the current downturn," said Scott Pattison, executive director of the National Association of State Budget Officers. "This is an awful time for states fiscally, but they're even more worried about 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014."

As the article tell us,  states face aggregate budget shortfalls of at least $230 billion just through fiscal 2011. Federal stimulus funds, except for some costly-mandated programs with stringent requirements, will cover $130 billion of that. All of these state-directed funds, which will merely act as a patchwork effort to fund state programs just to maintain jobs, account for approximately half of all of the actual cash in the entire stimulus program.  What does that leave Main Street for new job creation?


When today's federal assistance peters out, a number of state budget officers don't expect new tax revenue to replace it. As the recession grinds on, states are posting significant declines in revenue from their three major sources: sales, personal-income and corporate taxes.

--SNIP--

Still, in general most forecasters see a very slow recovery, which suggests a commensurately slow upturn in state revenues. Federal Reserve officials, for instance, see unemployment, at 8.9% at last report, averaging between 9% and 9.5% next year and remaining elevated through 2011; some private forecasters are more pessimistic.

State tax collections could take five years or more from when the recession began in December 2007 to recover to prerecession levels, says Donald J. Boyd, senior fellow at the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York.

The story, above, talks about unemployment averaging between 9%-9.5% next year. IMHO, those are absurdly optimistic numbers, especially in light of today's latest BLS' numbers for May.

Zero Hedge provides us with more on the National Association of State Budget Officers' Report:


...Revenues from all sources which include sales, personal income, corporate income and all other taxes and fees exceed expectations in two states, are on target in ten states, and are below expectations in thirty eight states. This is in contrast to fiscal 2008 when twenty-five states reported that revenue collections exceeded estimates.

Fiscal 2009 estimated tax collections of sales, personal income, and corporate income are 6.1 percent lower than actual fiscal 2008 collections. Specifically, sales tax collections are 3.2 percent lower and personal income tax collections are 6.6 percent lower.

Thirty-five states assume negative budget growth for fiscal 2010 governors' recommended general fund budgets, while 30 states are estimating negative growth budgets for fiscal 2009.

Corporate income tax collections are 15.2 percent lower for current fiscal 2009 estimates relative to actual fiscal 2008 collections.

Compared to fiscal 2009 collections, recommended fiscal 2010 budgets reflect a 3.0 percent increase in sales tax revenue, 1.3 percent increase in personal income tax revenue, and a 1.7 percent decrease in corporate income tax revenue.

Many states have since reported that April tax collections were well below estimates.

Because states recognize that an economic downturn may last for more than one year they are reluctant to deplete balances. This is in part due to concerns that the poor fiscal situation may continue through fiscal 2011...

Restating a sentence from above, ""This is an awful time for states fiscally, but they're even more worried about 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014."

Remember this when you see today's latest unemployment report (along with the "downward revision" to April's numbers buried deep within it).

Think about it the next time you opt to be complacent as you continue to hear of the trillions going to Wall Street, while Fed Chair Bernanke provides us with his conveniently-time-delayed "concern" about our federal deficits.  In light of the timing of these statements of concern about the deficit now, as states slide deeper and deeper into budget-induced despair, one has to wonder aloud: "How dumb do those folks in D.C. think we are?"

Originally posted to http://www.dailykos.com/user/bobswern on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 12:34 AM PDT.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Tips: Main Street's reached a tipping point on $. (32+ / 0-)

    We need more stimulus $ now.

    "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

    by bobswern on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 12:45:23 AM PDT

    •  Damnit Bob (0+ / 0-)

      I was feeling good but you had to go and bring me down with numbers and percentages. I wasn't even down about not being a TU anymore, like it's important or something. For the first time since we lived in Australia and my moms visa prohibited her from working, she is unemployed and can't get a job in South Carolina. I'd bet my bottom dollar Jabali, my former employer an Isreali Palestinian, would hire her if only for part time work in one of his restraunts if she would go and ask, with the obligatory phone call from me. But she is very stubborn, like her mother, I love them both deeply, and she won't take a hand out, no matter how much she has givin me. My roomate got laid off last month from an advertising firm here in Vegas, at least he got a decent severance. Me, I'm paycheck to paycheck as always. Union worker for the first time in my life, don't ask me my opinion of the Culinary Union I'll write a diary about it one of these days, top of line benefits no doubt, but when where I work strugles for 4,000 dollar days I wonder how many days I will still be employed. I work at RUB BBQ at The Rio, the W.S.O.P is in full swing, and we did 70% of our business in one hour out of ten. I know I have a job through July, after that it's in the air. At least I'll get $400 a week for a  while if RUB does close down, but that's a far cry from me getting paid to go to Hawaii for a month to open a RUB franchise, which is in the works if the eceonomy would get back on track. Hell, at least I have a job.

      If there's any justice in this world, there will never be an aircraft carrier named after George W. Bush.

      by Drewid on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 03:06:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Oh (0+ / 0-)

      tipped and rec'd btw.

      If there's any justice in this world, there will never be an aircraft carrier named after George W. Bush.

      by Drewid on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 03:09:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  yet, just yesterday a commenter here on dKos got (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dkmich, wa ma, Margfh, Drewid

      all umbragey over someone's use of the word "Banksters", and asserted that Geithner et al had averted Great Depression 2.0.

      so, you see, you must be mistaken about all this bad stuff.

      To put the torture behind us is, inevitably, to put it in front of us.

      by UntimelyRippd on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 03:16:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  "Chain Store Sales Plummet," (6+ / 0-)

    Expect more faux hip hop from Steele about how the malls are pact.

    Dear GOP&Conservatives If all you have to offer are Cliches and Hyperbole then STFU. Thanks XOXOXO

    by JML9999 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 12:58:39 AM PDT

    •  Well, there are a lot of.. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JML9999

      what some would call "Faux Hip Hop Clothing" stores in them, so he may be right when it comes to his "New, Hip" audience..

      If he HAS an audience, that is..

      And If He does, That would be Great News For John McCain..

  •  Here is comparing what... (4+ / 4-)

    Rush Limbaugh says to what you say about the Obama stimulus package...

    Here is a link

    http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/...

    We have authorized a Porkulus bill of near $1 trillion to get shovel-ready projects going, to get the economy going, it's not working.  There's no new employment to report out there, unemployment at 25-year high last month.

    He continues with this quote...

    The federal government has thrown trillions of dollars at failing entities, industries, and they're still failing and getting worse.

    Here is what the diary starts off with...

    Today, the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will come out with their May 2009 unemployment report (in a few hours), and the general consensus among the finance community (see: "U.S. Economy: Services Shrink, Job Losses Mount") is that the highly-publicized, albeit misleading, U.3 Index will reach 9.2%, with the more comprehensive U.6 Index (which includes those that have been unemployed for more than a year as well as the underemployed) expected to exceed 16%. Some respected economic historians tell us the national unemployment rate will, as of today, actually exceed 20%

    And the diary continues...

    Think about it the next time you opt to be complacent as you continue to hear of the trillions going to Wall Street,

    And Rush continues...

    I don't care how you choose to measure it.  There is no hope on the horizon for a job.  There is no hope on the horizon for renewed prosperity.  There is no hope on the horizon for economic growth.  It's not there.  It's been promised.  

    And the diary continues...

    Think about it the next time you opt to be complacent as you continue to hear of the trillions going to Wall Street, while Fed Chair Bernanke provides us with his conveniently-time-delayed "concern" about our federal deficits.  In light of the timing of these statements of concern about the deficit now, as states slide deeper and deeper into budget-induced despair,

    The similarities are striking...

    Of course unemployment is painful and the stimulus will in many cases close state budget gaps and prevent even deeper layoffs in the short run rather than actually creating net new jobs...even POTUS Obama admitted that when he said create and/or save jobs...

    Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

    by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 01:40:34 AM PDT

    •  Your comparison is troll-worthy, because... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Margfh, ohmyheck, yellow dog in NJ

      ...it's part of an ongoing pattern to disrupt my diaries. The comparisons to Limbaugh are over the top, undue and part of this disruptive effort that you put forth, as well.

      (The last three or four out of my last six, or so diaries, have not been critical of the current admin's economic policies, so you've said sarcastically nice things in them...but, the pattern of your disruptive commentary remains.)

      I mean really? Who the hell are you? "The echo chamber thought police?"

      (This place is not an echo chamber...no matter how some would like it to be that way.)

      Additionally, you've done this before and the comparison is totally contrived, like it is here, as well.

      Then again, I guess noting that 1 in 6 Americans is unemployed makes me similar to Limbaugh, right? (Does Limbaugh continually blame this on Bush?)

      Show me where I'm blaming Obama for this...in any single sentence that I've ever written...in my life.

      Or, where's the part in Limbaugh's commentaries where he talks about 8 years of failed, laissez faire mismanagement of our economy under the Bush administration? I think I missed that part. (You'll find those words in about a dozen of my diaries.)

      Yeah, your efforts here are typical of your ongoing attempts to disrupt my diaries when they're critical of the administration's efforts with regard to the economy. So, go for it.

      But, for the record, I'm sure that on a bad day I'm three times more liberal in my political views than you'll ever be.

      Then again, you're sitting here supporting the efforts of a bunch of Republican holdovers and a DINO economics advisor.

      So, whom, exactly, is closer to being aligned with Limbaugh's views here?

      "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

      by bobswern on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 01:59:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That is right... (0+ / 0-)

        making a comment IMHO with comparisons...is being a troll...the diarist's definition of a troll is quite interesting...

        Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

        by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 02:25:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Disrupting a diarist's diaries on an ongoing... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ohmyheck

          ...basis is troll-ish behavior. It's spelled-out in the FAQ.

          "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

          by bobswern on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 02:35:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Again...making a comment... (0+ / 0-)

            politely disagreeing with the diarist's conclusions is not trollish behavior...and is not disrupting a diary...as long as it is related to the topic...

            I believe you are referring to "diary hijacking" or "thread hijacking" which I have not done since I directly related my comment to your diary...

            Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

            by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 02:49:57 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Diarist HRs disagreement constantly (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              New Deal democrat

              that leads off into a meta discussion that really DOES disrupt his diary.

              It's one of the reasons why I don't bother with them very often.  This one I only opened to see if it misused the word "officially", but got too bored to finish.

              •  That is what I keep on trying to... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                New Deal democrat

                tell the diarist...that politely having a contrarian opinion...is not being a troll...but the diarist seems to think that anyone who is not an echo chamber for the diaries written is by definition a troll...

                I guess I am a glutten for punishment...but actually, the diarist was better than usual this time...

                Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 07:18:11 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Politely? You've trashed a dozen diaries... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Drewid

                  ...with your crap, everytime with the same misleading, conflating, name-calling memes. It's all there. Over the last few days you've changed your tactics a bit. But, it's still the same, like today. The conflating and b.s. comparisons with Limbaugh just takes it over the top.

                  What part of "U.6 unemployment is now over 16%" do you associate with Limbaugh?

                  What part of telling it like it is upsets you? (Instead of candy-coating matters to the point where they no longer represent reality might be what you're advocating, but this is NOT a football lockerroom at half-time. Get over yourself.)

                  Your concept of "dialogue" and the truths behind and within your commentaries are two entirely different realities.

                  As for the absurd comment of the commenter above you, all I can say is: get a clue. And, if you're going to throw around false comments like this, putting forth what's nothing short of a lie, you'll have to deal with the repercussions of your actions on your own time.

                  What I find interesting is the reality that I went many months without h.r.'ing a soul...and then, over the last 3-4 weeks, concurrent with the appearance of a few "echo chamber thought police," a couple of whom are right here in these comments within this diary, the nastiness started, and continues, even within this diary.

                  You may dance on that fine line between trollery and "supposedly-acceptable" behavior around here, but your feet cross the line far too many times--as has been noted on numerous occasions over the last three or so weeks--by yours truly. I have no problem with mature discussions with people with an adult approach to the matter. But, more often than not, the commenters in question here, shoot first with ad hominem attacks, just like you're doing right here, then scramble to find substance later.

                  If it was the other way around, we wouldn't be having this conversation right now.

                  "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

                  by bobswern on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 08:50:45 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I had the distinct "pleasure"... (0+ / 0-)

                    of listening to Rush on the way back from a meeting I had in Atlantic City today (he makes me so angry it keeps me awake) and it was interesting...again he was quoting the exact same stuff you were in this diary...

                    The U6 Statistics
                    The "Too much money going to bailouts for wall st"
                    The MSM cheerleading on the "false economic recovery"
                    The Obama Administraton cheerleading on the false economic recovery
                    Any recovery that does happen will be stifled by $85/barrel oil (you said that in a previous diary)

                    Almost exactly what you quoted today and came to the same conclusion (with different motives) that your diary concluded...The Obama plan is misguided (at best) and there is no sign of recovery any time soon.

                    I will look up the transcript when I get a chance...anyway...I appreciate that you at least partially admitted that I am not trolling your diaries and that I am attempting to have a civil blog discussion within your diary...albiet a contrarian POV...

                    I would suggest that you take a deep breath and not take comments so seriously that do not give your diary an "attaboy".  This is just a blog and we all have a variety of opinions...peace...

                    Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                    by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 12:40:03 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  You really are full of crap; quite disingenuous (0+ / 0-)

                      ...and a game player.

                      So, you drive to AC? Well, funny that. I'm from So./Central Jersey and the Phila. area, originally.

                      You don't happen to have family in the Princeton/Trenton area? If so, then I think I might actually have known some of them growing up...possibly...it's not that uncommon of a name, however.

                      "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

                      by bobswern on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 04:03:36 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  If you bothered to read my... (0+ / 0-)

                        profile...I am from Morris County NJ (NW Jersey)...I was at a meeting of NJ Society of CPAs in Atlantic City which I go 1 time a year...

                        And yes that one time per year I do play craps so now I am not full of crap...I got the craps out of my system...

                        And no I have no family in Princeton/Trenton area...

                        Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                        by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 05:02:32 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                  •  As the FAQ's.... (0+ / 0-)

                    say...just because I have crossed the line in the past does not mean you should HR on sight any contrarian comment I make in your diaries...

                    Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                    by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 01:01:07 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  And I am not changing tactics... (0+ / 0-)

                    this is a community where we are all supposed to self-police and get along...like POTUS Obama says, "disagreeing without being disagreeable"...which is what I always strive to achieve at DKos...

                    Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                    by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 01:02:35 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  You harass with great dishonesty, too. (0+ / 0-)

                      Even your use of the word, "tactics," telegraphs the truth that you have an agenda and ulterior motives behind your so-called "comments." Folks don't have "tactics" when they're engaged in genuine discourse.

                      But, all that aside, there are a little less than 80 comments in this diary, and around 30 of them are yours...in every thread. Confrontational with many.

                      And, that's just a repetition of your behavior in what are now countless other diaries I've posted here in the past few weeks.

                      Tonight, I decided to not ignore you....but, I generally will. You're going to find this is very boring. And, again, you have too much time on your hands; and, the time you do have you're spending pretty unconstructively...as if you're on some sort of misdirected mission.

                      This is your problem. And, it will stay that way. Good-bye.

                      "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

                      by bobswern on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 04:10:44 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  You're pro Evan Bayh, anti-Fairness Doctrine? LOL (0+ / 0-)

                        ...and you post "happy news diaries."

                        Dude...you're a stereotype.

                        "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

                        by bobswern on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 04:27:31 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I am in favor... (0+ / 0-)

                          of expanding Democratic power by supporting blue dogs from conservative districts/states and yes I am against the FD...we can win the war of ideas without the FD...

                          And your point...?  Every liberal should be against the FD...

                          Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                          by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 04:56:48 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                      •  One more thing, it's very dishonest to... (0+ / 0-)
                        ...play games by using quotes which you claim are attributable to Rush Limbaugh, when you don't provide links to facilitate context. Additionally, attempting to attribute quotes to someone, paraphrasing them without any reference is out and out bullshit.

                        Come to think of it, your penchant for playing games with my diary comments is little more than that...a cheap thrill...very, very, very cheap.

                        "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

                        by bobswern on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 04:30:50 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  The last time I quoted Rush... (0+ / 0-)

                          I linked directly to his radio transcript...so whatever...I think it would be better for you to ignore me and to mellow out...I have no issue with that...

                          Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                          by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 04:58:22 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                •  "Politely" calling me a Limbaugh parrot? LOL! (0+ / 0-)

                  Give it a rest. You clearly have too much time on your hands, and too much undeveloped critical thoughts in your mind...at least it would appear that way with the the conflated, ad hominem attacks.

                  I really feel sorry for you. Sincerely. Anyone that'd spend their time doing what you've been doing in my diaries for three-plus weeks needs to get a life...

                  "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

                  by bobswern on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 08:59:37 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Actually I went farther than... (0+ / 0-)

                    calling you a Limbaugh parrot...in fact I was quite careful in saying that while you are leveling similar criticisms of the Obama economic program as is Rush...your motivations are much more positive and Rush's motives are quite nefarious...which is the key difference when you and Rush agree on the issue of unemployment and too much money going to stablize the financial system...

                    Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                    by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 12:43:07 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  I think what you don't understand... (0+ / 0-)

                    is my motives...you think I do this for some nefarioius reason or to personally torment you...nothing could be farther from the truth...in fact, I just want Kossacks to know that not all Kossacks agree that the economic fortunes of the US are not going to "hell in a handbasket" and that recovery is around the corner..."so to speak"

                    That is important for all Kossacks to know that you and your echo chamber followers are not the only opinion at DKos when it comes to economic theory...

                    Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                    by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 12:45:47 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  Some diarists think they've called "dibs" (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  dvogel001

                  on their diaries being only for agreement or sub group participation.  It's usually something like the Edwards Evening News Roundup or cat diaries, and I don't have a probably with it generally.  But here, it's the diarist deciding that the diarist's diaries are for the diarist's pleasure.  It's a group of one.

              •  Constantly? LOL! It's the difference btwn... (0+ / 0-)

                ...ad hominem attacks and substance. You're conflating at a very basic level. As for my h.r. "record," you are putting forth more ad hominem attacks which are now being further contorted into outright lies.

                It's too bad you don't have anything better to do with your time.

                "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

                by bobswern on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 08:56:52 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  You don't know the difference. (0+ / 0-)

                  That's why every single diary of yours ends up with you making an accusation of trolling and disruption, if not several, plus accusations of lying, attacks, blah blah blah blah blaaaaaaaah.  

                  It's too bad you don't have anything better to do with your time.

                  Your concern that people are wasting their time commenting in your diaries is duly noted.

                  •  It's the difference btwn commenting and hijacking (0+ / 0-)

                    ...that you conflate now...you're a bit confused. And, one need look no further than the comments section of this diary for an example of that.

                    Your ad hominem bashing and mindless support of that type of behavior is trivial if for no other reason than the shallowness of your own words.

                    People with an agenda other than to constructively contribute to the dialogue, no matter what their position on a topic, are always, always welcome.

                    All you have to do, however, is note (via timestamp) the other diarist's first comment in this diary to fully understand my position on this matter. Once you interrupt normal dialogue with that type of "introduction," the agenda's clear with regard to the motives of the commenter.

                    It's all downhill from there.

                    "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

                    by bobswern on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 11:12:34 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  CORRECTION (to my last comment)... (0+ / 0-)

                      People with an agenda other than to constructively contribute to the dialogue, no matter what their position on a topic, are always, always welcome

                      Should have been...

                      People with an agenda other than to constructively contribute to the dialogue, no matter what their position on a topic, are always, always UNwelcome.

                      ...i.e....and/or...

                      People with an agenda to constructively contribute to the dialogue, no matter what their position on a topic, are always, always welcome

                      "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

                      by bobswern on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 11:15:04 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

          •  Here is the relevant FAQ on HRing... (0+ / 0-)

            To Troll Rate something has exactly one meaning. When you Troll Rate something, as a trusted user, you are stating that the comment should be made invisible to all site users. You're saying that the comment is so bad -- so disruptive or damaging to the community

            Are you really saying this...methinks you are overreacting just a tad bit...

            Do not troll rate people for expressing a contrary opinion, so long as it is expressed in a civilized fashion.

            In fact, I have 1 fundamental contrary opinion with the diarist...Obama's economic recovery policies are correct, balanced and working and that in the natural course of an economic recovery re-employment will be a lagging indicator of these policies working.

            Do not troll rate someone you are actively having a fight with.

            In fact, you are abusing HRings because you perceive we are having a fight...I simply Rec and Tip diaries I see that I agree with (some are even yours) and make contrarian comments on those I disagree with...

            "Troll rate on sight" is not intended to be used against anyone but the most obvious and egregious of trolls

            You are pretty much HRing me "on-sight" which is an abuse of HRing...but in accordance with the FAQ's, I do not HR you back...

            http://www.dkosopedia.com/...

            Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

            by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 03:01:22 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Here is an example where we are in... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            The Red Pen

            http://www.dailykos.com/...

            complete agreement and I Rec'd and Tipped your diary...

            Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

            by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 03:07:35 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  This is an unflattering comparison (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Inland, New Deal democrat

            But the disruption here is being caused by an uncalled-for HR, rather than a cogent counterpoint.

            Everybody have fun tonight. Everybody watch news tonight. — Wang & Connie Chung

            by The Red Pen on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 03:59:39 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The Limbaugh comparison (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LI Mike, ohmyheck

              Is a personal attack. There are many economists that agree with the points Bobswern makes.

              The Democratic Party has historically supported Labor Issues and unemployment should be a primary concern to all of us in the party for many reasons - the least of which being the elections of 2010.

              The Rubinites are entitled to their opinions, but should not compare a respected fellow Democrat to Limbaugh. It's just wrong.

              The goal of life is living in agreement with nature. - Zeno

              by yellow dog in NJ on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 04:13:01 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  It is not a personal attack.. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                The Red Pen

                I actually like the diarist and have recommended other of his diaries...while it clearly sucks to be unemployed and underemployed...there is clearly reason to believe the worst is behind us in terms of GWB's disasterous stewardship of the economy...

                Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 04:21:13 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  It might be mistaken, but it's never "wrong" (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                dvogel001

                It's a valid criticism.  It may be mistaken but it is not "wrong" in a moral sense to have made it.

                Perhaps you think that the comparison is specious.  If so, make that case.  Don't suppress the opinion

                dvogel001 has presented evidence that the criticism was not meant as an attack on the diarist himself.

                Everybody have fun tonight. Everybody watch news tonight. — Wang & Connie Chung

                by The Red Pen on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 07:20:51 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  Lets take this one at a time... (0+ / 0-)

        (The last three or four out of my last six, or so diaries, have not been critical of the current admin's economic policies,

        In fact, I call them as I see them...I Rec'd and Tipped your last diary and the one before that I simply noted that it was a reasonable diary...our disagreement continues to be around unemployment and the fact that unemployment will recover after other economic factors recover no matter what Obama does...

        I mean really? Who the hell are you? "The echo chamber thought police?"

        No, simply another long-term DKos blogger who calls diaries out the way I see them...some I agree with and some I don't just as other DKos bloggers have done with my diaries...none of those commenters have I ever HRed for disagreeing with my diary's premise...

        Then again, I guess noting that 1 in 6 Americans is unemployed makes me similar to Limbaugh, right? (Does Limbaugh continually blame this on Bush?)

        Show me where I'm blaming Obama for this...in any single sentence that I've ever written...in my life.

        Your diaries continually insinuate that Obama's policies of having a two-pronged approach of stablizing the financial system while stimulating the economy is prolonging the agony of our current inherited economic woes...I find this curiously similar to Rush who blames the continued economic woes (which while he does not directly blame GWB does admit Obama inherited it) on Obama's failed and misguided policies and priorities...

        Are you saying you now agree with Obama's economic recovery priorities?

        Or, where's the part in Limbaugh's commentaries where he talks about 8 years of failed, laissez faire mismanagement of our economy under the Bush administration? I think I missed that part. (You'll find those words in about a dozen of my diaries.)

        I never said that Rush's agreement with conservative laissez faire policies was in agreement with you...your agreement with Rush is in the failed Obama recovery priorities and how they are not working quick enough for you and how the bailout funds were wasted on saving the financial institutions...

        Yeah, your efforts here are typical of your ongoing attempts to disrupt my diaries when they're critical of the administration's efforts with regard to the economy. So, go for it.

        My efforts are not an attempt to disrupt your diaries but are an attempt to provide a contrarian POV that says...hey the Obama economic policies are working but will take some time...especially in the area of unemployment...as POTUS Obama said...we did not get here overnight and the recovery will not happen overnight...

        But, for the record, I'm sure that on a bad day I'm three times more liberal in my political views than you'll ever be.

        Labels do not mean much to me...I focus on what I believe in...sometimes that is quite liberal and other times that is more moderate...it depends on the issue...I am quite interested on exactly how you can measure 3x more liberal.../snark

        Then again, you're sitting here supporting the efforts of a bunch of Republican holdovers and a DINO economics advisor.

        Well I plead guilty to liking POTUS Obama's approach to being a pragmatist and a moderate on economic policy although with a balanced approach to recovering the GWB debacle of economic management...

        So, whom, exactly, is closer to being aligned with Limbaugh's views here?

        I do not think I have ever agreed with Rush's POVs on any issue...I think he is wrong about criticizing POTUS Obama's economic recovery efforts.  I follow Rush (and other RWTR folks) for 2 reasons...

        1. To find out what the enemy is thinking (keep your friends close and enemies closer)
        1. To find out what patrons of RWTR to avoid...like for instance, I love steak but I refuse to go to any Ruth Chris' Steak Houses because they patronize RWTR...the conflict comes into play when vendors advertise on RWTR and LWTR (Air America Radio)

        Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

        by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 02:47:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Dissent is not trolling (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dvogel001, New Deal democrat, Hawkjt

      Seriously flawed HR.

      •  I do not totally disagree with (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MindRayge

        the diary here but I do not think someone pointing out the parallel commentary from Rush is a troll-like response. It is simply making an interesting observation about how Rush is adopting and very disengunuosly parroting some of the generic talking points out there about bailouts,unemployment,ect.

        I think the meat of the comment by dvogel is that we do need to be aware that Rush and his ilk are going to increasingly focus on pushing the economic populist line, as phony as they truly are on these issues, to make inroads into the lower/middle class voting bloc for the 2010 elections.

        So, this does represent a danger to the democrats and Obama in the upcoming elections if the economy is still lagging badly..no shock there. But Rush and his ilk (based on the Hannity-Rush interview I saw last nite) are going to be saying the exact same complaints about the economy as Krugman starting now. Even tho expecting a huge impact at this point from the stim bill, Rush and co. are hammering on it already. They are bitching about the bank bailouts as they profit from the salvation of the banks stocks on Wall St. They are bitching about the GM bailout to the very union workers whose jobs have been saved by these actions.
        They are going bitch about all the policies that are making them rich and sound like Bobswern.
        At this point all we can do is hope and pray the economy does recover ASAP and expose them as the vultures that they are.

        •  So if Rush says the sky is blue does that make (0+ / 0-)

          him wrong?   Even a broken clock is right twice a day.   The economy is broken.  Wall Street may recover, it always seems to; but it doesn't mean that Main Street will get to go for the ride.  

          "YES WE CAN" doesn't mean he is going to

          by dkmich on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 05:11:17 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I guess he (0+ / 0-)

            might be right, but his intentions are not honorable. If he gets his way, then Romney/Palin will be making the economic decisions in the White House and somehow I doubt they will have the poor workers best interests at heart either.

            I suppose it is unavoidable that Rush and his ilk will piggyback on the criticism from other quarters as they are opportunists of the first order.

          •  Obviously... (0+ / 0-)

            Rush/Hannity et-al's motives are nefariouis and the diarist's motives are not bad...but having liberals attacking Obama for bad economic policy will be a Republican talking point for the upcomming mid-term elections....

            Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

            by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 06:02:40 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  it's going to take a WPA to stanch the bleeding (11+ / 0-)

    and some very serious public spending on job relief to the populace if we ever want to recover. triggering a wall street dead cat bounce is not good enough.

    surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

    by wu ming on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 01:49:47 AM PDT

  •  Bobswern, you have a mislink (6+ / 0-)

    "Chain stores plummet" is linked to Tyler's Chrysler BK filing.

    Just to show howbadly Retailers are hurting, there is an article with great graphics here.
    It is not a good sign that Retail is suffering losses in May. Memorial Day kicks off high traffic season for most Retailers.

    The goal of life is living in agreement with nature. - Zeno

    by yellow dog in NJ on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 02:07:20 AM PDT

    •  Thanks! And, yes... (4+ / 0-)

      ...I see what's going on in the retail sector firsthand, everyday...it was self-evident that the bump in sales was due to tax refunds, and now it is resuming its trend.

      It's sad the way some are contorting numbers to make totally bogus "points" about a so-called "recovery" that's supposedly occurring during the worst unemployment in this country since the Depression.

      "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

      by bobswern on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 02:19:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  During the great depression... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Drewid

        there were literally bread lines around the block...I see no such evidence of that level of misery in our economy...

        Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

        by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 03:03:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  They didn't (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LI Mike, yellow dog in NJ

          get into the depression overnight, we have tent cities outside Sacremento.
          It could go either way but don't think for a mintue things aren't worse than most people have seen in their lifetimes. Never mind that we have a decade at most to significantly shift our energy generation to carbon neutral sources or we're pretty much done as a species in, hell I give us 150 years.

          If there's any justice in this world, there will never be an aircraft carrier named after George W. Bush.

          by Drewid on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 03:14:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  In the Great Depression... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Drewid

            the economic woes and stock market continued to decline for 4 years...and there is no evidence of that here either...

            Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

            by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 03:17:45 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Haha heh (3+ / 0-)

              the economic woes and stock market continued to decline for 4 years...and there is no evidence of that here either...

              We are only in year 2.

              If there's any justice in this world, there will never be an aircraft carrier named after George W. Bush.

              by Drewid on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 03:38:33 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  And remind me which way the stock... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Drewid

                market has been going since Obama has implemented his economic policies...?

                Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 03:55:47 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Allow me to be blunt (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  mcc777c2, chrome327, yellow dog in NJ

                  Who the fuck cares what the stock market is doing?
                  Our money to the tune of trillions, with a T, is on the line propping up the criminal banking sector just so there isn't a global credit freeze causing god knows what, probably massive deflation becuase we can't borrow money to buy shit we probably don't need. Our empire is over and we should start living within our means. Teh Stock market can shed 1,000 points in a week at any point. Until there are jobs out there being made generating revenue for our govt and spending in the market we are in a bad spot.

                  If there's any justice in this world, there will never be an aircraft carrier named after George W. Bush.

                  by Drewid on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 04:06:15 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Still about 50%+ of Americans have... (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Roadbed Guy, Drewid

                    money in the stock market so I would respectfully disagree with your heartfelt opinion...indeed many retirees are feeling much better about thier financial condition because of the recovery of the stock market...they do in fact matter...

                    Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                    by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 04:17:48 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  You missed this bit (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      wa ma, chrome327

                      Teh Stock market can shed 1,000 points in a week at any point.

                      True or false?
                      I'll write a whole diary about it right now just for that poll question. It'll be a suck diary, because most of mine are, but I'd do it.
                      As far as my heartfelt opion, we have the absolute best leader at the helm. I truly believe that to the bottom of my being, I just hope it, and he, is enough. But I am a realist, and realistically things don't look good.

                      If there's any justice in this world, there will never be an aircraft carrier named after George W. Bush.

                      by Drewid on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 04:28:35 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                •  The stock market (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  wa ma, mcc777c2, Drewid, ohmyheck

                  Is NOT a relevant indicator of anything. It has been a pure traders market as opposed to an investment market for the last 25 years. All of the stocks are over valued and the share prices do not reflect any sense of reality and rather they show wishful thinking.

                  The only thing that is relevant with the stock market in relation to Obama policies (actually continuations of Bush policies) is with bank stock prices. If those share prices drop it affects their common tangible equity calculations for determining if enough capital exists to cover losses. But even those stocks are heavily speculated on leaving the issue of whether the banks have enough capital in question. Delinquencies, charge-offs, foreclosures, and bankruptcies will continue to rise as unemployment continues to rise all the way through all of 2010.

                  •  Actually the fundamentals.... (0+ / 0-)

                    of companies and the P/E ratios are not indicative of an overpriced stock market in general from a historical perspective...

                    And I would disagree strongly that Obama is continuing the GWB economic policies...with the exception of TARP....

                    Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                    by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 04:43:23 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Um, TARP is what I am referring to (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Drewid, ohmyheck

                      And I am not talking about P/E ratios specifically but those are too high right now as they are rising in a declining economy that will still be declining for another year. In particular the overvalued argument I am making is based on the market capitalizations of these companies. They are worth no where near where those numbers come in. Some of these companies would take more than 30 years of their highest earnings ever to equal that valuation. The explosion in the number of shares outstanding over the past 3 decades has created this over-valuation.

  •  Regarding unemployment (3+ / 0-)

    The May to Sept unemployment numbers should be viewed in context.
    Highly seasonal employment occurs in the summer months - construction, more tourism-related jobs, more service workers (in retail and restaurants).

    Companies that back off seasonal hires, would not be reflected in the unemployment stats.

    The goal of life is living in agreement with nature. - Zeno

    by yellow dog in NJ on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 02:20:49 AM PDT

    •  I thought that unemployment numbers... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Drewid

      were usually "seasonally adjusted" to take that into consideration...

      Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

      by dvogel001 on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 02:23:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  There's an annual adjustment every July... (6+ / 0-)

      ...and this year it's going to be brutal.

      The unemployment numbers over the past 18 months have been heavily distorted, on an ongoing basis. The previous month's "revisions" have been downright pathetic.

      There's also something called the birth/death (or something like that) adjustment...and that's been pretty heavily manipulated over the past few months, too.

      John Williams over at Shadow Stats has some really good historical information on all of this in sections of his website that are free (some areas of his site cost money to subscribe to them). I've verified much of his reference work, and it's all solid. The one thing I don't like about the guy is he's a bit over the top when it comes to hyperinflation.

      "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

      by bobswern on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 02:32:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I hate when people use that word (0+ / 0-)

    So it's "official"?

    No, that's an opinion based upon reading statistics one way.  The "official" rate will be in the low-9's.

    People throw about that word as if they think it means something more than their own opinion.  Semantically, it is an incorrect use of the word.

  •  Interessting diary. Scary, but interesting. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    yellow dog in NJ

    As for the Limbaugh quotes above...

    I'm a fat person, so I can be politically incorrect and say with my very own authority that Limbaugh describing something else as "porkulus" is... well... it gave me my belly-laugh for the day!

    Keep up the good work, bobswern!

    "There are four boxes to be used in defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, and ammo. Please use in that order." --- Ed Howdershelt (Author)

    by SciMathGuy on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 03:52:27 AM PDT

  •  I don't understand (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MindRayge, wa ma, LI Mike, ohmyheck

    I read every economic diary I can here at Daily Kos and on HuffPost. I watch Bloomberg and CNBC. Everything I read or see seems to point to economic data that is slightly less awful than expected. Unemployment continues to rise at a rapid rate. Bloomberg showed a chart this morning directly correlating unemployment with steep rises in credit card defaults. (We are at record levels now is what I remember them saying) Huffpost had a diary that showed 12% of mortgages are late or foreclosed. Bonddad has charts showing that the oversupply in housing isn't going away any time soon. Manufacturing activity is also very bad. The commercial real estate bubble is just now starting to burst and will cause the banks huge losses. The financial sector posted 1st Quarter profits but, from multiple sources, including an AP article today, these profits consist almost entirely of accounting gimmicks and one-time adjustments. Banks (and others?) are now allowed to fudge their financial reports since FASB caved on mark-to-market accounting rules. I work for a city in Texas and we will be "furloughed" 2 days this summer and several more next fiscal year around Christmas. Oil is increasing and according to some will reach $85-90 per barrel by years end. Our budget deficit for the next several years will be huge and as interest rates on Treasury's rise interest payments on the debt will become more burdensome. There has even been talk about downgrading the quality of UK and US sovereign debt.
    All of this says to me that the ecomony is bad and not getting better, but almost every economic pundit is talking about "green shoots" and the traders keep bidding the stock market up. I just don't understand why.

  •  mcc772c2 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ohmyheck

    What does your handle mean? I can pithily sum up this crapswamp we're in in 500 words? Good post.

  •  This is scary regarding 2012. A new, bigger, (0+ / 0-)

    better stimulus is required now which must be targeted for main street.

    Tipped and recommended for the reality, even though it is bad.

  •  More diary hijacking here, as usual. n/t (0+ / 0-)

    "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

    by bobswern on Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 09:03:30 AM PDT

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site