Tonight the invaluable Nico Pitney at HuffPo cites a very interesting analysis of Iranian clerical politics published at EurasiaNet, a project of the Open Society Institute which is sponsored by George Soros.
A source familiar with the thinking of decision-makers in state agencies that have strong ties to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said there is a sense among hardliners that a shoe is about to drop. Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani -- Iran’s savviest political operator and an arch-enemy of Ayatollah Khamenei’s -- has kept out of the public spotlight since the rigged June 12 presidential election triggered the political crisis. The widespread belief is that Rafsanjani has been in the holy city of Qom, working to assemble a religious and political coalition to topple the supreme leader and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Yesterday's reports indicated that five members of Ayatollah Rafsanjani's family were arrested by the authorities, ostensibly to prevent their assassination as a provocation by the regime's opponents as Rachel Maddow reported this evening. Rafsanjani heads the Assembly of Experts, based in Qom, which is the group which has the power to name or remove the Supreme Leader (Khamenei). Rafsanjani's maneuvers have been rumored since the unrest began, and I've been watching for word of their results. This is the first significant report I've found, though sourcing is anonymous.
... Rafsanjani has succeeded in knocking the supreme leader off his pedestal by revealing Ayatollah Khamenei to be a political partisan rather than an above-the-fray spiritual leader. In other words, the supreme leader has become a divider, not a uniter.
Now that Ayatollah Khamenei has become inexorably connected to Ahmadinejad’s power grab, many clerics are coming around to the idea that the current system needs to be changed. Among those who are now believed to be arrayed against Ayatollah Khamenei is Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the top Shi’a cleric in neighboring Iraq. Rafsanjani is known to have met with Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani’s representative in Iran....
The sole justification for the Islamic Republic in Iran is the idea that the state should be guided by religious authorities to ensure that it follows religious ideals of justice. The actions of Ayatollah Khamenei in stealing the election and brutally repressing the populace since has forfeited the Supreme Leader's religious authority, as there is no longer any moral justification for his leadership. al-Sistani's involvement would represent not only an interesting reversal of neighborly political meddling in the area, but also serves as a reminder that the Shi'a clergy in Iraq hold great authority throughout the Shi'a world, including Iran. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, perhaps the most respected religious authority in Iran, has called for three days of mourning for the victims of the demonstrations, which legitimizes future defiance of Khamenei's authority and sets up a religious as well as a secular confrontation.
The EurasiaNet report quotes a reformist website, Rooyeh, which reports that Rafsanjani has assembled a near-majority of the Assembly of Experts to oust Khamenei, and that his lobbying continues to garner support. It says he is trying to establish a Leadership Council of three senior clerics to replace the Supreme Leader. EurasiaNet also quotes an al-Arabiya report citing a "high-ranking source" in Qom who stated that Rafsanjani already has the support to oust Khamenei, but that it is yet to be agreed how he should be replaced.
Bottom line, according to EurasiaNet:
To a certain degree, hardliners now find themselves caught in a cycle of doom: they must crack down on protesters if they are to have any chance of retaining power, but doing so only causes more and more clerics to align against them.
Ayatollah Khamenei has forfeited any claim to legitimacy as Supreme Leader. It has been apparent for days now that his only choices were to impose dictatorship without any religious veneer, or to step down. The more interesting question was whether the clerics who can remove Khamenei would remove him or go down with him. It is possible, if this report is accurate, that we are about to learn the answer to that question. Let us all hope and pray for the sake of the people of Iran that they choose wisely.