Although speculation that the resignation of Brian Sandoval from his Lifetime appointment Federal District Judgeship is all about replacing current GOP clown act Governor Jim Gibbons, I think Sandoval is aiming higher, much higher.
Although the resignation has largely passed unnoticed in much of the country I think this is a preview of a grand battle plan for the revival of the GOP in Nevada.
Let's Review:
Sandoval was the popular aggressive State Attorney General, who crushed his opponent in the election. Then he was nominated to the Federal bench by Harry Reid and John Ensign. At the time the speculation was that Sandoval would challenge Reid in 2004. There was a collective sigh of relief when he was nominated to the bench, and a good deal of back room high fives that Harry dumped a future opponent so smoothly.
Sandoval is still young, articulate, charming, and the ladies love him. He also is best friends with the 'I hate Gibbons' GOP faction leaders former Governor Kenny Guinn and GOP Senator Ensign's former chief of staff Pete Ernaut. (The sane GOPers, which is what makes them so dangerous)
Ernaut is an unwritten power behind the throne in Nevada Republican politics, he is the guy behind the secnes. In short, the Karl Rove of Nevada politics. He's smart, cunning and ruthless. Pete absolutely loves and thrives on running campaigns. Look for Ernaut to be Sandoval's Campaign Manager.
For Sandoval, this makes an almost no loose situation.
With Dean Heller (R-NV2) removing himself from a Senate contest with Reid, the door opened for Sandoval's triumphant return to Nevada Politics.
The way I see this shaping up is that Sandoval will get lots of national support to challenge Harry Reid's Senate seat. He'll be able to match money raising dollar for dollar against Reid. The well healed GOPers here (think Sheldon Adelson) will figure out a way to get him money, lots of it.
Harry is in for a harder fight than he had with John Ensign in 1998 (victory Margin: 428 votes).
Even if Sandoval looses, he can still run for scandal ridden John Ensign's seat in two years. I suspect that Senator Ensign is getting a lot of inside pressure (think daddy's casino boss partner Sheldon Adelson again) to decline to run in 2012. However, A Sandoval victory over Reid will make an Ensign victory in 2012 that much easier, Dad's problem that much less, and the wingnuts will be back in their cages.
Unfortunately, Harry seems to be getting himself boxed in. The only opening I see is that he will have to tack to the left, hard, and do his very best to insure that the 2010 election is about people's freedoms, government transparency, and 'gee, see what a great job pushing through real health care reform that includes a public option is helping all of you unemployed Nevadans, despite the Republican opposition.'
I just don't see that happening, Harry has to regain his base support, and do something that will entice the conservatives to hold their noses and vote for Harry because he is bringing home the Bacon, Big Time. I think he is too entangled with deal making at the Beltway to be able to make a hard tack like that in this short of a time. In order to regain his base, he will need to become much more partisan, I don't think he can pull that off.
Lastly, Even if Sandoval just runs for Governor, the way up the ladder is open for him. If Harry's son Rory becomes the Democratic nominee, he'll probably get beat by Sandoval. (There's a strong distaste here for relations on the same election ballot. It's possible they both loose.) But my read is that Sandoval is very much more ambitious than that. It's the Senate for him.