Without cheap oil, neither the U.S. nor the global economy can grow, and will shrink.
First, a little background. I have a degree from U.C. Berkeley in Conservation of Natural Resources (1976). I have read Richard Heinberg, Colin Campbell, Kenneth Deffeyes, and others, and use The Oil Drum and Energy Bulletin as my current primary sources for updates on the global energy situation. I am currently reading Tainter’s "Collapse of Complex Societies," and plan to read Jared Diamond’s "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed" next. I am also well aware of the accelerating rate of impacts of global warming, and it scares the hell out of me. I thought resource depletion and global warming would be our children and grandchildren’s problem, but even at age 67 and in reasonably good health, I may live to see serious impacts on our very civilization from these problems before I die. Perhaps I’m already seeing them.
Have you noticed recently that the price of oil jumps up with every upward lurch in the economy? I believe that any significant increase in economic growth will be batted down by rising oil prices. It takes increasing energy supplies, especially oil, which is fungible (meaning basically that if you can’t get it from one source, you can get it from another), but globally limited, to grow an economy. Anyone who follows the global oil situation is aware that 50+ of the 60+ non-OPEC oil-producing nations have declining output, and that production increases equal to current Saudi output every few years would be required to offset current declines from oil-producing regions. I won't go into alternatives, but none of them looks to be able to make up the deficits in future petroleum "demand." In other words, I see no way for a full and complete economic recovery. The global business community, and especially in America, is playing a game of Monopoly with money and "financial instruments" which gives a false sense of true economic growth. Without increasing production of material goods, which required ever-increasing energy supplies in spite of efficiency improvements, capitalism and the market economy cannot thrive. Even the fiat currency system requires growth in the long run, and the long run may be over.
President Obama has good intentions, and is probably aware of the extreme danger posed to the U.S. and world economy economy from the lack of cheap energy to power the engine of economic growth, on which our civilization is based. Our current economic system cannot work under a long-term steady-state model, much less one based on declining or negative economic growth – yet that is what we face. Obama will not be able to do anything significant to mitigate the energy crisis as President. He faces an enormous set of problems, and many will blame him for failing to fix them. Conservatives, of course, will continue tell us that they have the solution, when their plans, I believe, will just make things much worse, and quickly. Whoever the presidents are in the next decades, they will get hammered by events beyond their control, and I think that we may even see a series of one-term presidents.
Americans (and perhaps it is human nature) always blame others for their problems. For me, Adolf Hitler is the classic example of how people can be manipulated to blame a nation’s woes on definable groups based on race or ethnicity. The same community of power brokers that got Bush in for two terms may be able to again manipulate American voters with fear and intimidation, scapegoating, lies, and the people’s ignorance of science. The tendency of many Americans to believe outrageous and obvious lies, like the ones about the current healthcare fiasco truly frightens me. As a white American (however, with an externally non-obvious 25% native American blood in my veins), I accept and embrace the fact that the United States is a multi-racial, multi-ethnic nation. However, the fear and loathing, based on hate and ignorance, that is emanating from conservative America scares the hell out of me. I think we are facing some really tough times in this country.
The only hope I have for personal happiness is family and community - friends and neighbors – both in my home town here in and around the town of Sebastopol in Northern California, and online in places like DailyKos. I encourage everyone to make friends, keep friends, reach out to help others - even strangers. I read recently that many Americans are eating out in restaurants less, having more family meals, more personal family and friend activities that don’t depend on external entertainment, etc. And this trend started before the current recession. So gather the family, and even if you’re single, invite friends or neighbors over, share a beer, glass of wine, or cup of tea, enjoy the world around you. Grow some veggies, or raise some goats or chickens. When the early morning crowing of the neighbor’s rooster brings a smile to your face instead of making you angry, you’ve turned the corner. When the monster energy-gobbling server farms that support internet communication and commerce start going down, first sporadically, then permanently, we will lose this wonderful way to communicate with both friend and stranger, but the people on your street or road will always be your neighbors. Start getting to know them if you haven’t already. And buy a short-wave radio receiver to hear what the world is doing if your internet access gets flaky.
Call me a "Doomer" if you like, but I believe that re-localization and controlled powerdowns are the best bet for the future. I believe in my community – do you believe in yours?