Anyone who has followed this health care debate knows what the story has been for the last few weeks: The Republicans have found their voice and are winning the debate on health care. The Tea parties, Glenn Beck and Boss Limbaugh were driving Obama's poll numbers, his agenda, and ultimately his presidency into the basement. Obama was against the ropes, and no one could see how he would get out of this mess with a bill. They pointed to the polls, which showed a precipitous decline, and the right-wingers had declared victory. But as the numbers from several pollsters now show, Obama has once again pulled himself and the country back from the brink, largely because of his speech before congress, but also because the right-wing fringe of this country has overreached.
Nearly every major poll, including Rasmussen, Gallup,and even Zogby's questionable internet poll has shown that support for the plan has gone up since the speech. These pollsters were showing a shift even before a new Washinghton Post/ABC News poll came out this morning showing the same trend.
Rasmussen today:
Overall, 52% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. That represents a two-point gain following the speech and is the highest rating for the President since July 17.
The President’s speech also provided a bounce in support for his health care plans. Fifty-one percent (51%) now favor passage of the plan while 46% are opposed. Those figures include 28% who Strongly Favor the plan and 38% who are Strongly Opposed. Fifty-five percent (55%) now say it’s at least somewhat likely the proposal will pass.
Last week, the day after Obama's speech, but before any polling had occurred, this was the report from Rasmussen:
A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey conducted Tuesday and Wednesday nights finds that 44% favor the plan while 53% are opposed. These numbers are little different than those in late August.
If even the normally right-leaning Rasmussen is showing a shift, then there must be something going on. In my opinion, the right-wingers have overreached. They went from calling Obama a racist, a socialist, and a communist, to claiming he was going to kill their grandmas and indoctrinate their kids. After a month of watching the "Republicans Behaving Badly" show at the town halls, they were finally pushed over the edge by Joe Wilson's disrespectful outburst during Obama's speech to congress. The American people don't like the Republican party much as it is, but the impression the right-wingers are leaving with them is that they are so heavily invested in defeating Obama that they have taken leave of their senses, and they aren't helped by the images of the Tea Baggers carrying racist signs at their rallies.
The success of the President's speech on Wednesday could be seen in the dour faces of the Republicans in the house chamber during the joint session, and in Lindsey Drama Queen Graham's desperate declaration that Obama's speech was a "disaster":
I've seen that same look of defeat on Graham's face before, during the 2008 campaign, when he was deperately trying to spin McCain's imminent defeat. The right-wing base may be energized, but their leaders on capitol hill know that a health care bill will pass, they could feel the tide turning with every word coming from Obama's mouth during his speech.
We will know in the next few days whether this is just a short-term bounce or the beginning of a trend, but the early indications are that we are seeing the same scenario we've seen play out over and over again with Obama. All during the campaign, there were moments where everyone counted him out, and said he should be doing things differently, and every time, he has proved to be successful in the end.
He will get a health care bill passed, though he won't get everything he wants. In the end, it will be a victory for him, and we in his progressive base will have to decide whether we can support the compromise or not.