There are 23 members on the Senate Finance Committee: 10 Republicans, and 13 Democrats. It will take 12 yes votes to move a bill out of the Committee.
Yesterday, after their weekly luncheon, the Senate Finance Committee Democrats' plan became clear: the new goal is a bill that can win each of the panel's Democrats plus, if possible, Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME).
"There is a view on the part of the chairman and on the part of just about everyone in there to try to come up with a consensus that every Democrat and perhaps Olympia Snowe could support," Schumer said. "And I would say just about everyone in the room thought it was doable."
Conventional wisdom is that Republican Senator Olympia Snowe is the only likely Republican "yes" vote to move the bill.
Indeed, Snowe is sending some possible signals she may vote for the bill:
"I've always been a Republican for the traditional principles that have been associated with the Republican party since I became a Republican, when I registered to vote. And that is limited government, individual opportunities, fiscal responsibility, and a strong national defense. So I think those principles have always been a part of the Republican party heritage. And I believe that I reflect those views and I haven't changed as a Republican. I think more that my party has changed.
Robert Reich writes that it is essential to any progressive legislation that Senator Snowe not vote for the Baucus bill. Reich argues that if Senator Snowe votes for the Baucus bill, the Baucus plan will end up being the one that goes to the Senate floor, will give cover to the conservadems to vote for the bill, and will push the House bill much farther to the right.
The two bills then go to a reconciliation committee where the White House can put some final touches on it before it goes back to the two chambers for a final vote. The White House likes this scenario because it keeps private insurance companies, Big Pharma, and the AMA from bolting. It enables the President to call the resulting bill "bipartisan," and to claim that it marks real reform. And maintains the possibility of Republican support for financial reform and environmental legislation next year.
So, to make the numbers work, even if Baucus and the White House can shove Snowe to a "yes" vote, Baucus cannot lose more than one democrat's vote to advance his bill.
Here are the Democrats serving on the Finance Committee:
MAX BAUCUS, MT
JOHN D. ROCKEFELLER IV, WV
KENT CONRAD, ND
JEFF BINGAMAN, NM
JOHN F. KERRY, MA
BLANCHE L. LINCOLN, AR
RON WYDEN, OR
CHARLES E. SCHUMER, NY
DEBBIE STABENOW, MI
MARIA CANTWELL, WA
BILL NELSON, FL
ROBERT MENENDEZ, NJ
THOMAS CARPER, DE
We all well know "Democrats" Conrad, Baucus, Lincoln, and Nelson were lost causes from the get go. Carper is also supportive of Baucus' bill, and Bingaman, while saying he "strongly supports" a public option, also gleefully supports the Baucus bill without one.
That's 6 Democratic "yes" votes for Baucus' bill, but the remaining 7 Senate Finance Committee Democrats have indicated they have serious problems with the Baucus sub-committee bill.
Senator Menendez has been very critical of the Baucus bill. Specifically, he has problems with taxing the so-called Cadillac health insurance plans, the affordability issues, and the anti-immigrant language. Menedez plans on introducing amendments to this effect.
We all know where Senator Rockefeller stands: "There Is No Way I Can Vote for Sen. Baucus’ Plan." Rockefeller says in addition to his insistence there be a public plan included in any final product:
"Sen. Baucus isn’t from West Virginia although he is from a coal state, and he should understand that that means every single ... coal miner is going to have a big, big tax put on them because the tax would be put on the company," Rockefeller said.
Senators Schumer, Stabenow, Wyden, and Kerry aren't even close to happy either:
Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) said they will push to raise the threshold at which family plans would be taxed to $24,000, up from $21,000, hoping to shield middle-class families from hitting the cap.
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Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said he will propose allowing Americans to choose their own insurance plan. Employers would be required to offer the choice of at least two plans, and employees could choose to enroll in one of those plans or they could take a voucher and buy a plan on the exchange.
Then there's Senator Maria Cantwell:
Sen. Maria Cantwell said unless significant changes were made she would be unable to support a major health care reform bill unveiled Wednesday by the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee.
/snip
"I wouldn't vote for a bill that doesn't have Medicare reform and the public option," Cantwell said in a telephone interview. "What would I tell the people in Washington state?"
This should be an interesting dance: keep Snowe onboard while satisfying the concerns of skeptical (in some cases downright pissed off) Democrats. Or throw Snowe overboard and try to pass a bill out of committee with Democrats only.
Either way, the Democrats seem determined to push a bill out of the Committee, but I don't see how they can do it. To do so will take placating those insist on a public option and those who do not. It will take increased subsidies, more choice, and major tax concessions. The conservadems on the Committee will never stand for this, and I don't see how any of the amendments put forward by the Democrats can possibly pass. Will the progressive voices on the Committee fold to Baucus and Snowe and perhaps the White House as well? Or will they stand on principle and for all Americans? Democrats seem to think they can move the bill, but how?
Whatever, it won't be pretty.