I have read a couple "Senate Forecasts" recently- most show a 2-5 seat Republican gain (I lean toward 2). What fascinated me was my own reaction: I was a little bored by them. And I know why.
There is no longer a target. Because 60 votes means nothing.
Preserving 60 doesn't get us anywhere. Somehow the Republicans were able to pass all sorts of negative legislation with under 55 votes in the Senate and a similar House Majority... and here were are struggling with our 60. Health care, EFCA, Cap and Trade, its all stalled, and its all subject to the whims of a few DINOs and moderate Republicans.
So here is what I, and many other Dems, reaction is likely to be this cycle...My 60 Votes Don't Mean Nothin' Senate Forecast:
My 60 Votes Don't Mean Nothin' Senate Forecast
DELAWARE
...I'm not too concerned whether Beau Biden or Mike Castle win in DE. Castle would be the most moderate GOPer (even more moderate than Collins). He has a great relationship with Veep Biden... so would he not ALMOST be more handy than Beau in that seat? I mean, what if Castle (R-DE) would agree to sign up for a REAL public option? Wouldn't that give the White House the bi-partisan cover they seek? Wouldn't that be awfully handy?
NEVADA
I'm pretty sure 55 Dems under Maj. Leader Schumer is as good as 65 Dems under Maj. Leader Reid. So I kinda hope Reid loses. If I had loose change, I'd probably throw some at a primary opponent just to weaken him. He's a big let-down. Tell me how things aren't better WITHOUT Reid in the Senate... since we don't care about 60 anymore?
COLORADO
I never liked Bennett. I don't like the White House interfering in potential primaries, because I think they're helpful. So... I think I'd like to see Bennett lose if he successfully avoids a primary fight. Again, 60 don't mean nothin', and I think Bennett, once given 6 years and no accountability, is gonna go all Evan Bayh on us big time.
PENNSYLVANIA
Arlen Specter is an evil panderer. I've always thought this, even though he's sometimes voted with Dems. But remember he hasn't voted with us THAT often, and I don't trust him once he gets a full lame-duck (this would be his last term) 6 years. Why should we? If Sestak doesn't win his primary, I really want to see Specter gone.
LOUSIANA
You know what's fun about Vitter? He votes the same as Melanchon would (why is it that Louisiana have politicians that sound like Star Trek villains?) and his diaper-lovin' face is a nice reminder to the GOP that they can't get too smug about the sex scandal. David Letterman? He's a celebrity who had lotsa sex (gasp). He didn't pay them for sex and ask them to put him in a diaper. I think I'd like to keep Vitter where he is.
CONNECTICUT
Much as I kinda like Dodd, boy has he sucked on banking, as badly as Lieberman, and... guess what... his failure is a lead weight tied to the Democratic party. As a lifelong Dem, I'm as pissed about TARP and the lack of accountability/follow-up as any teabagger, and we all should be. And Dodd was part of the problem. Any Republican elected in very BLUE CT will have to take lessons at the Maine Twins School of Dance, and again, like Castle, if bi-partisan cover is what you seek... wouldn't this be a good thing?
That's 6 races we could lose, and, since 60 isn't all that important, I think we'd be better off. Bi-partisan cover for Pres. Rahm in CT and DE, a new Majority leader thanks to NV, wiping the stench of the financial crisis off in CT, and getting rid of a potential DINO in CO. Oh.. and maintaining the embarrasment in LA.
That leaves us with 54, Durbin or Schumer as Majority Leader, and, from what I can see, a Senate that works much better for how Rahm Emmanual wants to govern. Of course, we could screw up in a few other states and dip below the magic number of 50. Oh dear!? But then Rahm could REALLY have bi-partisanship, huh?
From what I can see, 50-54 seats = 60, so I'm not going to be enthusiastically ponying up much at all outside races I care directly about (Carnahan in MO, Barbara Boxer).
I could write a "60 Seats Is the Holy Grail" diary if the Dems actually pass health care w/a real public option, EFCA and serious environmental legislation. Until then... 60 Seats Don't Mean Nothin.