I haven't posted a diary here in years, nor have I commented very often of late, but I think, from the perspective of progressives there are many reasons why a public option (since single-payer isn't going to fly right now)needs to be included in health care reform. However, under all the facts and figures that are put on display about how many people aren't covered, how many people die due to lack of coverage, how the insurance companies are ripping people off, etc. there is one reason for the public option to be included in any health care reform that isn't really being talked about enough. And the reason it needs to be included is the biggest reason the Republicans are doing everything in their power to defeat it as well as any other type of real reform.
Let's face facts. Health care reform can happen without the public option. It would be minimal, but it would have some impact on the people of this country which could raise the standards of health care. It may even, to some degree, bend the cost curve. It would definitely extend coverage to many who are uninsured right now. And it would even make the big insurance companies happy. And it would also virtually insure a return of the Republicans to power over the next 1-3 years.
And that is the real threat of passage of health care reform without the public option. No public option = Republican resurgence. And that is why we must fight as hard as we can to get it included in any bill that passes.
In 2008, something special happened in this country. I have been around a lot of years. Hell, I campaigned for Nixon in 1960. But I have never seen what happened last year before. Obama touched something in the American people, brought a level of inspiration that Reagan could only have hoped for. People actually began to believe that things could change, that politics as usual would end. Many people voted for the first time, and it wasn't just the younger voters I am talking about.
Even people in my age group that had been totally disillusioned by politics, that felt it didn't really matter who won because both major parties were practically identical, registered and voted. Obama won the primary campaign due, to a large degree, to these voters. And they followed him through the November election. I am not saying he wouldn't have won, and pulled many Democrats along with him, without these people, but the overall election may have been very different.
Even those who had voted, perhaps somewhat listlessly, most of their lives, suddenly felt that they were voting for something different this time around. There was an air of excitement about voting. And with that came a real sense of change coming along.
Let's be honest. Obama has both pleased and disappointed many people. I am one of those that falls into the "both" category. I have seen a lot of things I like about what he has done, and I have also been disappointed about some of the things he hasn't done. But if a public option doesn't pass, the disappointment will far surpass the pleased component.
And this is the crux of the matter. For many progressives and others that came out, sometimes for the first time in their lives, to support Obama, the public option is becoming the final litmus test. These people see the polls, they see that the Dems control Congress and the White House. Failure to pass a public option bill will be incomprehensible to them. Those that felt that there really was a difference will realize there isn't. Those that were somewhat cynical in the past, but overcame that cynicism to get out to vote, will withdraw back into their non-voting shells.
It isn't just the base. My estimate would be that for every new or usually non-voting person that voted for Obama last fall, two voters will be lost over the next 1-3 years. And many that were regular voters will pull back from the process. And this is what the Republicans want. They know that the more people that vote, the less chance they have of winning anything. They need to supress the number of voters, and they can read the calculus better than the Dems can.
The public option must pass or we face a future of Republican rule that will make the Bush years seem benign.