The well-respected University of Cincinnati/Ohio Newspaper Poll -- known as the Ohio Poll -- released a new poll of the Ohio Governor's race over the weekend. http://media.cleveland.com/...
The poll confirms the results of a Rasmussen poll in September that showed the match-up between Ted Strickland (D) and John Kasich (R) as a dead heat. Rasmussen had Kasich one point up, OP has Strickland up one among all registered voters and up 3 among likely voters -- all within the margin of error.
A dead heat does not mean dead meat I hear you say? In this case, it certainly does. Read on below the fold.
There are three enormous problems for Strickland revealed by this new poll. Here they are:
- Many Democrats and KOSsacks had dismissed Rasmussen as an outlier, because Rasmussen is, well, Rasmussen. Strickland had been polling up to 19 points ahead before August. The Ohio Poll clearly had the best consistent track record in the state over the course of the 2008 cycle (note: I said "consistent record" not best final number before the vote). No one can now believe that Kasich isn't going to be very competitive.
- Trend, baby, trend. The trend for Strickland sucks like a nuclear-powered Hoover. His approval ratings were astronomical less than a year ago, and are now headed toward the dumpster. Voters are coming to conclusions about Ted Strickland, and those conclusions are spreading like a brushfire.
Now here's the big one:
- The Ohio Poll is the first public poll of this race that shows the regional cross-tabs in a correct pattern. Indeed the reason that OP did so well in 2008 was that they, being academics in the state, understand the variability between Ohio's vastly different regions. Quinnipiac, at the other extreme, continues to have major problems polling rural Ohio and in the last Quinn poll, the northwest showed as Strickland's strongest region, which is absolutely impossible. In the new Ohio poll, the northwest shows as Kasich's second strongest region (53 to 37 for Kasich), which is credible. However, get ready -- southeast Ohio shows as Kasich's third stongest region at 54-43 for Kasich. The southeast is Strickland's home base. It's where he grew up and held a congressional seat for eons. It's also the state's biggest swing region. If Strickland is losing the southeast at all, not to mention by 11 points, he's dead meat.
According to the new Ohio Poll, Strickland has a clear lead in only one of five regions of the state, that being the northeast. You don't win Ohio elections by sweeping northeast Ohio -- it's the least swinginest part of the state.
I live in what is classed as the southeast (south central but they lump us eastward). Strickland comes from Lucasville, about 12 miles south of where I live. The Ohio Poll confirms what I see and hear on the ground. The folks who know Ted Strickland, who grew up with him, who are related to him, have turned against him with a vengeance. And the vengeance is growing.
All John Kasich has to do is come to Lucasville and tape some street interviews with locals talking about Ted Strickland. And you better believe, Kasich didn't need to hear that idea from me. Those ads will be devastating.
Here's why. The swing voters of southern Ohio already knew that Ted Strickland was a corrupt SOB. But he was OUR corrupt SOB. We voted for him (myself included) in 2006 on the promise that he was going to help impoverished southern Ohio, the most neglected region of the state.
But Strickland has been pure disaster for southern Ohio. His deals with the timber companies have deforested our counties. His deals with the coal companies have resulted in plans for new filthy coal plants. His deals with the nuclear companies have resulted in a string of failed projects at the Piketon nuclear reservation. Lies. Lies. Lies. That is the Strickland legacy on his home turf.
And Ted Strickland knows he's done. He has the best internal polling apparatus in the state, and his own models, on which he has based past campaigns, hinge on winning the swing voters of the south.
The big issue of the coming 2010 campaign? Cronyism. The Republicans are going to hammer away at the cronyism of the Strickland regime. And who will be running on the Strickland ticket? All signs point to crony Lee Underdevelopment Fisher as the machine-picked candidate for US Senate. Gay-bashing Strickland crony Jennifer Garrison will likely be the Dem. candidate for Secretary of State. And a motley crew of other Strickland cronies are vying for nominations for congressional seats.
For those looking in from outside, Ohio is shaping up to be a real disaster for Democrats in 2010. But for those of us here, it won't be such a disaster. Because the only way to remove a corrupt machine is to have it swept from office.
I retain hope that Strickland will follow his own internal polling, withdraw from the race, allow Lee Fisher to run for governor, and leave Jennifer Brunner a clear shot at Rob Portman in the Senate race.
But history tells me that party bosses don't act this way -- they don't go voluntarily. Thus, the Strickland-Kasich match will be a choice between Scylla and Charybdis.
Some outside help for insurgent Democrats in Ohio would be nice, right about this time.