Disclaimer: I know I stopped commenting for awhile because I'm tired of health care, but I said I'd be back for elections. We are now in the midst of the final days of a very interesting one in NY-23.
Whether or not Bill Owens wins or not, the damage is done for the GOP in the Northeast. They just politically assassinated a fiscal conservative and social liberal in DeDe Scozzafava. Surely the media will make hay about how this is great for the GOP, that the teabaggers will give them the momentum to win in 2010, etc.
But if I am one of the "centrist" GOPers that John Cornyn so carefully cultivated for 2010, I would be very afraid. Whether or not they draw a teabagging primary challenger, the war has begun.
Personally, I simply can't see how the right wings of the Delaware, Florida, Illinois and New Hampshire GOPs stand idly by while non-conservatives stand very good chances to ascend to the US Senate.
Let's look at this race-by-race:
IL: Mark Kirk absolutely has to run to the left/center in order to win in DuPage County and in the northern suburbs. Has to. Why do you think he voted for cap and trade? And based on their reaction thus far, it's far from the last time he's going to hear about it from the downstate teabaggers/right wingers. Wouldn't shock me if a Mike Ditka got in here as a "conservative" alternative.
DE: I don't think there are any other legitimate GOPers in Delaware, but there is no question that Beau Biden is going to use that famous youtubed "birther" meeting against Castle to say, are you on these people's side or not, Mike? I'm pretty sure they're not going to like the answer
FL: I'm pretty sure that the last week's events means that Charlie Crist is close to hosed. Once the FL-Sen primary really starts getting some national exposure, it's going to by NY-23 all over again. Plus, if I'm Crist, I don't know if I'm totally sure that John Cornyn wouldn't conveniently stick a knife in my back like the NRCC did to DeDe Scozzafava. And that's after I decided NOT to run again for the governorship of one of the largest states in America and the ultimate perch to run for President. What an idiot.
NH: I don't really know shit about Kelly Ayotte, but I think the teabaggers will make Ovid Lamontagne a much bigger force in that primary. And that's after the NRSC had to step back from endorsing Ayotte. I predict the Union-Leader is going to start assailing Ayotte at their first opportunity. If I were Paul Hodes, I'd be awfully pleased. Kelly Ayotte will not turn to the right quick enough to ward off this kind of challenge from her right.
See, here's the problem: if this sort of Hoffmania happens in NY-23, it's ok: their partisan splits are not exactly super favorable to a Dem. But IL, DE, FL and NH are blue states that went D +5 OR MORE in the 2008 election.
So if you teabaggers out there want to take down "treasonous" centrists in these states, feel free. I'm looking forward to holding IL and DE and picking up NH and FL.
UPDATE: tberry points out CT. How could I forget?
CT: I think Chris Dodd is in far more serious trouble than others, but the same holds for Rob Simmons. The minute that Linda McMahon gets to parity with Simmons (and she will), the teabaggers will stick with her, I imagine. I don't think even that Paulista will get them. He's too gauche for the teabaggers, I think.