update # the last. 1:04
The New York Times as of 1:04 AM has given the race to the forces of ignorance and hate. It seemed appropriate to put that at the top of this diary.
I feel terrible for the people who have had a basic human right, and really one of the joys in life, taken a way from them, and for the people who worked so hard.
End update.
I am a native Vermonter, which makes me a fellow Northern New Englander at heart. If Maine is like Vermont, the cities come in first, and the rural areas come in last. And like Vermont, I hope they help lead the country to marriage justice.
According to the NYT with 28% in, the votes are as follows:
Yes 74,546 50.5%
No 73,163 49.5
The Bangor Daily News has results - though a post by a No 1 supporter says they can be a bit strange. It is here
The Twitter Page for No on 1 is here
538, by the way, gave no a 71% chance of winning.
Per Scarce in the comments - here is a link to video of the No on 1 party.
Adam Bink is providing a great feed at openleft here
Update #1
NYT, 32% in:
No — 91,948 51.2%
Yes — 87,536 48.8
Bangor Daily News reports 81% turnout.
Update #2 - 10:34
Adam Bink notes a lull in returns at openleft.
No on 1 Twitter notes the no forces won Auburn.
Update #3 - 10:41
NYT, 34% in
No — 99,452 50.6%
Yes — 97,203 49.4
Very close, obviously.
A little worried that the no on 1 twitter pages hasn't been updated in the last 25 minutes...
Update #4. 10:49
No on 1 Twitter notes losing Brewster 42-58.
NYT - 38% in, could NOT be closer:
No — 112,421 50.0%
Yes — 112,245 50.0
Update #5 - No retakes the lead!
41% in
No — 123,756 50.6%
Yes — 120,916 49.4
Update #6, 11:07, Yes retakes the lead, 51% in
Yes — 154,810 50.3%
No — 153,237 49.7
Owens leads by 5 with 71% in, which would be a great result. i would trade that House Seat for winning in Maine, though.
Update number 711:16
From Adam Bink at Openleft
Update 43: After talking with some people here, based on projections from the campaign and looking at the rural numbers starting to trickle in, there is a very, very good chance of a recount, and we're making preparations for that.
Update 42: In Westbrook, a suburb of Portland immediately west, we won 55-45%. It's a big mill town.
Update 41: Let me emphasize for those who are seeing numbers elsewhere- we're at 57% after our more base targets that have nearly all come in- not overall. Overall I can't talk about in detail but they are better for us than 50/50. The rural numbers are starting to come in, though.
56% reporting
Yes — 169,835 51.0%
No — 163,433 49.0
Biggest lead for Yes I have seen.
Update #8, 11:27
Owens declared the winner.
No on 1 Twitter notes Kennebunk voted no 60-40
61% in, and I don't like the trend:
Yes — 183,829 51.5%
No — 172,997 48.5
Update #9, 65% in, 11:37
Yes — 194,087 51.5%
No — 183,011 48.5
Update #10, 68% in, 11:43
Nate Silver notes that the remaining cities look a "little reddish" but offers no prediction.
Yes — 206,401 51.8%
No — 191,997 48.2
Update #11, 11:51
From the comments, Adam Bink notes:
Update 45: The campaign is now directing staff to call town clerks to get final numbers in and look at our expected numbers there versus what they're reporting. A lot of this leads up to a potential recount if the numbers are way off, but there are still a lot of numbers waiting to come in.
Update 44: Based on what we have and what other news outlets are reporting, now over 60% of precincts are in, including a lot of more rural places, and it's looking like 51-49% against us.
69% in,
Yes — 210,353 51.8%
No — 195,799 48.2
Too Terrible, but it is not over yet.
Update #12, 71% in, 51.8 Yes, 48.2 No.
Nate Silver 9 minutes ago on twitter:
OTOH, looking very tough for gay marriage in Maine. Maybe there are some absentees etc but I don't know that the math is there.
What is wrong with people? Why do they need to hate others so much. I don't get it.
Update #13, 12:15
I don't even want to write this. Nearly a 5 point deficit.
76% in
Yes — 231,273 52.2%
No — 211,634 47.8
Update #14, 12:27
79% in,
Yes — 240,647 52.4%
No — 218,478 47.6
The No on 1 Twitter Page has gone silent. Per Adam Bink at Openleft, the No on 1 forces are preparing for a recount.
Update #15, 12:36
82% in, no change in the percentages. Per Julie Golden, Talking Points Memo notes:
Marriage equality is running about 4 points behind in Maine with about 2/3 of the vote in. But our number cruncher points out that a lot of the votes in the Portland area, which should be fertile ground for the pro-marriage equality forces, still haven't come in. So this could flip
That was written an hour ago (11:37) and the Bangor News Website suggests Portland may have counted. Still, they offer some hope.
Update #16, 12:57
Adam Bink writes:
Update 47: The No On 1 campaign manager, Jesse Connolly, just went down with us to the ballroom and announced that the race is too close to call and they are still counting. The counting could continue well into the morning. There will be no concession or declaration of victory, it appears, tonight. Things are extremely tight and no news media so far has called the race either.
84% in, 5.2% deficit. Still, no one has called it.