The first thing to remember is that anything that happens this far out is pretty meaningless and is NOT a trend.
Remember how everyone said the Democrats were doomed in Florida after the presidential primary debacle of 2008?
So much for Conventional Wisdom.
But there are some nuts and bolts type issues that should get looked at.
CROSS POSTED FROM FLAPOLITICS.COM
In Virginia the main thing to learn is that party primaries can be deadly for statewide candidates. Creigh Deeds won the no-runoff three way primary because his two liberal opponents split their voters and nuked each other in ads so much that their liberal supporters ended up staying home in the general.
So far, here in Florida, the only big primary on the Democratic side for statewide office is between State Senators Dan Gelber and Dave Aronberg for the Attorney General nomination. I've already addressed that race.
But the Republican statewide races just keep getting messier. Paula Dockery's entry against Bill McCollum for the Republican Governor nomination and Holly Benson's bid for the AG nod can only spell trouble.
With Alex Sink at the head of the tickt for the Dems, the Republicans are doomed if Benson and Dockery lose. The Republican difficulty in attracting female voters is well known. The 20% of non-party affiliated women voters in Florida are going to get the message loud and clear about which party candidates represent their DEEP interests as women.
McCollum is toast, and everyone knows it. Dockery's decision just makes it official.
And if some agreement can be worked out between Gelber and Aronberg, the same can be said for Jeff Kottcamp.
The other issue which some are talking about it Obama's influence. Much is being made that "his" candidates lost in New Jersey in Virginia.
But Obama never had any coattails, he is a unique phenomenon. And his key supporters, young people and minority voters, aren't known for turning out in off-year and special elections.
What Obama showed was only ONE potential path to statewide victory. As I've pointed out many times, the 2006 results for the five statewide races here in Florida go from 60% for the Democrat Bill Nelson to 57% for the Republican Charles Bronson.
All the pundits need to keep those numbers in mind before they start spouting off about "trends" and whether or not the elections were a good or bad sign for Charlie Crist's senate race.
We'll have a better idea about that after the next fundraising cycle, which is the main thing that matters now. (Anyone who discounts the effect of money and power on politics when it is intelligently used needs to read this NY Times piece on Mike Bloomberg's third term victory).
The other important thing at this time is consolidating your base, which Kendrick Meek is working on for the Dems.
Certainly much can and will happen between now and the primary elections. And it sure is fun to watch.