Here are my final thoughts on the 2009 Congressional Election in NY-23. OK, maybe everyone is sick of reading about it – really what more can be said? Well, here is one NY-23 constituent’s take on what happened, what will happen in the near future, at what we can learn from the election.
Doug Hoffman. I have heard that he is personally a nice guy, albeit quite conservative. However, he hitched his reputation to the out-of-district conservative activist, and chose to wage an aggressive, nasty campaign. Despite his dramatic lack of charisma (which some found charming), he could have won this campaign, had he been a bit smarter. His ‘message’ – distributed by incessant TV ads and free publicity by Beck & other right-wing media – excited the hard right in the district. And there are a lot of them. Just not enough to get elected.
His mistake was pushing that aggressive ‘teabagger ‘ image too far. He was ungracious when Dede Scozzafava dropped out. His campaign director went out of his way to antagonize the Watertown Daily Times / Johnson papers (the most widely circulated papers in the region, and Republican leaning) and North Country Public Radio (the main radio source of original reporting of regional news for much of the district). Hoffman’s refusal to comment on the odious Rush Limbaugh slur/’joke’ about Dede Scozzafava was probably the nail in the coffin. My sense (from talking with friends & neighbors) is that a white-hot hatred of Hoffman developed in the last few days of the campaign. Many Owens voters didn’t head to the polls to vote for Owens, they went to vote against Hoffman. This includes many independents and moderate Republican voters (who are more representative of the Republican Party here than the teabaggers). Here is an editorial by a representative (albeit a bit more Democratic than most) NY-23 swing voter At least the carpetbagger lost .
Republican activists from outside the district are already bailing on Hoffman Conservatives on NY-23: We didn't lose. Incredibly, Dick ‘the district’s concerns are parochial’ Armey actually had the chutzpah to state that Hoffman lost because he wasn’t knowledgeable about local issues! The activists are claiming that Hoffman’s popularity was increasing, and he would have one if the election were a week later. In reality, he had already peaked and would have lost more dramatically if the election was held later.
Dede Scozzafava. As I have written elsewhere, when she was picked by the Republicans and Darrel Aubertine passed on being the candidate for the Democrats, I thought that the results of the election were fore-ordained. Dede could certainly be seen as an heir-apparent to the popular John McHugh. Owens was an unknown political newcomer, who was closely associated with the awful John Sweeney. But Dede launched a terrible campaign. While she has been a fine campaigner in her NYS Assembly District, she never seemed able to scale-up to a whole US Congressional District. Nevertheless, in the only debate with all three candidates, she was widely seen as having sounded the most knowledgeable about the issues, as indeed she probably is.
She now has no future in the Republican Party. As she has remarked, George Pataki and the whole New York State Republican Party threw her under the bus. She is not a minor member of the NYS Republican Party – she is the freakin’ NYS Minority Leader Pro Tempore! She is, or at least was, a party leader! Pataki and some other NYS Republican leaders chose to support a third party candidate over the party’s chosen candidate, and then accused her of being disloyal when she endorsed the Democrat over the third-party candidate (there being no Republican in the race). She was a party leader in part because she could work with, and get things done in the Democrat dominated (Shelley Silver dominated) NYS Assembly – for the NYS Republican Party, this used to be seen as a feature, now it is considered a bug. Dede Scozzafava is justifiably angry, and she is happy to eloquently express that anger about her party to anyone with a microphone:
Feedback: Scozzafava Speaks Out About Lies & Betrayals
Feedback: Scozzafava Speaks Out About Lies & BetrayalsScozzafava on the heated battle for the heart and soul of the GOP.
She will either drop out of politics when her term is up, or run under the banner of the Independent Party.
By the way, this is the second time the NYS Republican Party screwed her over – previously she was passed over for the nomination in the special election to replace the State Senator Jim Wright (Republican), because of her stands on marriage equality. The Democrats nominated the conservative Darrel Aubertine, who easily beat the Republican unknown that was selected to be his opponent. This flipped the seat, and was instrumental in flipping the NYS Senate to the Democrats for the first time since the sixties. This has huge political implications, especially when redistricting occurs – New York has long had districts drawn to favor Republicans. The NYS Republicans have been politically very stupid, and now that Joe Bruno is gone from the State Senate (and standing trial for some of his many shady activities Joe Bruno's trial underway) and George Pataki loathed by left and right alike, the state party is a sinking ship with no captain at the helm. At the moment, the local party leaders are probably ready to quit, given the bitter criticism they have received for picking Scozzafava from national right-wing activists and the national Republican Party.
I can’t imagine who will be the dogmatic hard-right candidate they will pick to run against Owens next year, but it is sure that they will do this, and the more extreme the worse they will lose. Their only chance is to find a candidate who is seemingly moderate and genial (to attract the many independents & potential crossover voters), yet covertly right wing. In other words, a socially conservative (but not outspoken) Dede Scozzafava. I may be wrong, but I think they are SOL, unless John McHugh decides to return to his old job. Maybe currect State Senator Joe Griffo (he is conservative enough; I'm not sure he actually lives in the district, but does represent part) or Ray Meier (former State Senator, lost to Mike Arcuri in NY-24 in part because of a backlash over nasty ads sponsored by the RNC and repudiated by him). The primary will be in August or September, and I expect the smart Republicans who have ambitions to eventually run for Congress will sit this one out.
Bill Owens. He campaigned well. He clearly is a quick study and a smart politician. I was skeptical when he was nominated, but warmed to him. I was startled by the hostility he engendered on this blog (including by its owner!) – sure, he is no progressive, but he is a pretty mainstream Democrat. Part of the problem, of course, was that very little was known about his views at the start of the campaign, so everyone felt free to attribute to him whatever they thought he espoused. My sense is that he started campaigning as a ‘bluedog’ conservative Democrat, then tacked a little left when he learned how popular many of Obama’s policies, and main-stream Democratic Party issues, are in this district among independents and even some Republicans. He started as a Democratic John McHugh, then tacked a bit left. The take-home message, I think, is that we should support new Democratic candidates, even if they are more conservative than we like, because we may be able to pull them leftward. In a district like NY-23, it can’t be too leftward, or the candidate will be unelectable.
I think the chances of holding the seat are promising. Bill Owens seems to know how to play the game, and the Republicans have a real lack of credible opponents, especially credible opponents that meet the new, stricter purity tests. It never hurts to be an incumbent, even if it has only been for one year. He will need to convince the many voters who mainly went to the polls to vote against Hoffman. And unlike what many commentators who are unfamiliar with the district have asserted, NY-23 is trending purple not red. Just like the neighboring districts NY-20 (flipped by Kirsten Gillibrand, held by Scott Murphy) and NY-24 (flipped by Mike Arcuri). The Republican former lock on NY-23 was an anomaly – Democrats are electable up here, albeit less so than in many other areas of the Northeast.