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This is the third diary and last diary of a serie what have previously this two diaries:

Rank for senate 2010 and rank for governor 2010 by last polls.

Rank for senate 2010 and rank for governor 2010 by last polls II.

Today we have no changes in the ranks because we know not new poll. The more important news today are the confirmation of R Conlin and T Ribak are in for IA-Sen and MN-Gov races. Good news.

I remember the ranks:

RANK FOR SENATE 2010 BY LAST POLLS

November 06, 2009 edition of the rank of senate seats by last polls.

41 Dem senate seats without elections in 2010 (39 Dem + 2 Ind)
42nd OR-Sen R Wyden --------- W Polls ------------- ?
43rd IN-Sen E Bayh ------------ W Polls -------------- ?
44th MD-Sen B Mikulski -------- U Polls -------------- ?
45th NY-Sen C Schumer ------- U Polls -------------- ?
46th VT-Sen P Leahy ----------- O Polls -(+22 %)-- ** J Douglas
47th WA-Sen P Murray -------- O Polls -(+13 %)-- ** D Reichert
48th HI-Sen D Inouye --------- O Polls -(+12 %)-- ** L Lingle
49th NY-Sen K Gillibrand ------ O Polls -(- 17 %)-- ** R Giuliani
50th MA-Sen M Coakley ------- +26 % -------------- S Brown
51st WI-Sen R Feingold ------- +18 % ------------- M Green
52nd CA-Sen B Boxer ----------- +14 % ------------- C Fiorina
53rd IL-Sen A Giannoulias ---- +03 % ------------- M Kirk
54th PA-Sen A Specter -------- +02 % ------------- P Toomey
55th AR-Sen B Lincoln --------- +02 % ------------- G Baker
56th MO-Sen R Carnahan ---- =00 % -------------- R Blunt
57th DE-Sen B Biden ----------- - 01 % -------------- M Castle
58th OH-Sen L Fisher ---------- - 01 % ------------- R Portman
59th KY-Sen J Conway -------- - 04 % ------------- T Grayson (- 10% D Mongiardo Dem)
60th CT-Sen C Dodd ----------- - 05 % ------------- R Simmons

TIE POINT 2009

61st NV-Sen H Reid ------------ - 05 % ------------- S Lowden / D Tarkanian
62nd TX-Sen W White ---------- - 06 % ------------- D Dewhurst / G Abbott
63rd NH-Sen P Hodes ---------- - 07 % ------------- K Ayotte
64th NC-Sen E Marshall ------- - 10 % ------------- R Burr
65th GA-Sen J Marshall -------- - 08 % ------------- J Isakson
66th CO-Sen M Bennet -------- - 09 % ------------- J Norton
67th IA-Sen R Conlin ----------- - 12 % ------------ C Grassley
68th LA-Sen C Melancon ------ - 12 % ------------- D Vitter
69th FL-Sen K Meek ----------- - 15 % -------------- M Rubio (-12% C Christ)
70th ND-Sen B Dorgan -------- - 17 % -------------- J Hoeven
71st AZ-Sen G Giffords -------- - 27 % -------------- J McCain
72nd KS-Sen ** K Sebelius --- O Polls -(+10 %)-- T Tiahrt
73rd AK-Sen ** A Knowles --- O Polls -(- 08 %)-- L Murkowski
74th SD-Sen ** S Herseth-H - O Polls -(- 12 %)-- J Thune
75th OK-Sen ** B Henry ------ O Polls -(- 12 %)-- T Coburn
76th UT-Sen ** J Matheson--- O Polls -(- 23 %)-- R Bennett
77th SC-Sen ? ------------------ W Polls -------------- J DeMint
78th AL-Sen ? ------------------- W Polls -------------- R Shelby
79th ID-Sen ? ------------------- W Polls -------------- M Crapo
21 Rep senate seats without elections in 2010 (21 Rep)

W Polls = Without Polls
U Polls = Unusable Polls
O Polls = Orientative Polls (with theorical frontrunners what lose handly in the polls, what are out - likely out too - the races)

RANK FOR GOVERNORS 2010 BY LAST POLLS

November 06, 2009 edition of the rank for governors by last polls.

07 Dem governors without elections in 2010
08th WY-Gov D Freudenthal - W Polls ------------- ?
09th AR-Gov M Beebe --------- W Polls ------------- ?
10th NM-Gov D Denish -------- O Polls -(+22 %)-- ** S Pearce / H Wilson
11th MD-Gov M O'Malley ------ O Polls -(+07 %)-- ** R Ehrlich
12th NY-Gov A Cuomo -------- +40 % -------------- R Lazio
13th OR-Gov J Kitzhaber ----- +27 % -------------- A Allen
14th NH-Gov J Lynch ---------- +21 % -------------- J Kimball
15th CA-Gov J Brown ---------- +21 % ------------- M Withman
16th MA-Gov D Patrick -------- +10 % -------------- C Baker
17th HI-Gov M Hannemann -- +10 % -------------- J Aiona (+09% N Abercrombie Dem)
18th AZ-Gov T Goddard ------- +07 % -------------- J Brewer
19th IL-Gov P Quinn ----------- +07 % -------------- W Brady
20th MN-Gov M Dayton -------- O Polls -(- 04 %)-- ** T Pawlenty
21st CT-Gov S Bysiewicz ------ O Polls -(- 06 %)-- ** J Rell (? N Lamont Dem)
22nd VT-Gov D Racine --------- W Polls ------------- ?
23rd RI-Sen F Caprio ---------- W Polls ------------- ?
24th OH-Gov T Strickland ----- +01 % ------------- J Kasich
25th FL-Gov A Sink ------------- +01 % ------------- W McCollum
26th NV-Gov O Goodman ----- =00 % ------------- B Sandoval
27th SC-Gov J Rex -------------- =00 % ------------- H McNaster
28th WI-Gov T Barrett --------- - 01 % ------------- S Walker

TIE POINT 2009 (yesterdays changes will come in 2010)

29th GA-Gov R Barnes --------- - 02 % ------------- J Oxendine
30th ME-Gov E Mitchell -------- - 03 % -------------- P Mills
31st PA-Gov J Wagner -------- - 04 % -------------- T Corbett
32nd AL-Gov A Davis ---------- - 04 % -------------- B Byrne
33rd IA-Gov C Culver --------- - 05 % -------------- T Branstad
34th CO-Gov W Ritter --------- - 05 % -------------- S McInnis
35th MI-Gov J Cherry ---------- - 15 % -------------- M Cox
OK
TX
TN
KS
AK
UT
SD
ID
NE

6 Rep governors without elections in 2010

W Polls = Without Polls
U Polls = Unusable Polls
O Polls = Orientative Polls (with theorical frontrunners what lose handly in the polls or what are out - likely out too - the races)

Here we have not news but i like write this diary because is needed end and analize the information what are giving us the polls included in previous and in current diary. I will update this diary when the number of votes up.

This three polls (included todays) combinated give us the chance of make between all a new rank for the closer races. This will be a different rank to previous, a rank maked by us with our votes in this diaries. With these polls we can not stablish a detailed new rank but we can stablish any groups for the closest races.

These are the groups what we can see in these three polls (the diary will be updated after know todays poll results):

MAYBE LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RACES (updated)
Rank for senate: 53th
Rank for governors: 24th to 26th

OH-Gov with T Strickland (D) and J Kasich (R)
WI-Gov with T Barrett (D), S Walker (R) and M Neumann (R) (maybe T Thompson (R)?)
CO-Gov with W Ritter (D), S McInnis (R), J Penry (R) and more
NH-Sen with P Hodes (D), K Ayotte (R) and more

MAYBE LEAN DEMOCRATIC RACES (updated)

Rank for senate: 54th to 59th
Rank for governors: 27th to 29th (included the Tie Point for gubernatorial races between 28th and 29th)

IL-Sen with A Giannoulias (D), M Kirk (R) and more
PA-Sen with A Specter (D), P Toomey (R) and J Sestak (D)
AR-Sen with B Lincoln (D), G Baker (R) and more
NV-Gov with O Goodman (D), B Sandoval (R), R Reid (D) and more
MO-Sen with R Carnaham (D), R Blunt (R) and more
DE-Sen with J Biden (D), M Castle (D), and more
GA-Gov with R Barnes (D), J Oxendine (R), T Baker (D), and more
ME-Gov with E Mitchell (D), P Mills (R) and more
CO-Sen with M Bennet (D), J Norton (R) and more

MAYBE TOSS-UP RACES (updated)

Rank for senate: 60th to 63rd (included the Tie Point for senate, between 60th and 61st)
Rank for governors: 30th to 34th

FL-Gov with A Sink (D) and W McCollum (R)
SC-Gov with J Rex (D), H McMaster (R), A Bauer (R) and G Barrett (R)
OH-Sen with L Fisher (D), R Portman (R) and J Brunner (D)
PA-Gov with J Wagner (D), T Corbett (R) and more
AL-Gov with A Davis (D), B Byrne (R) and more
KY-Sen with D Mongiardo (D), J Conway (D), T Grayson (R) and R Paul (R)
IA-Gov with C Culver (D) and T Branstad (R)
CT-Sen with C Dodd (D), R Simmons (R) and more (maybe J Rell (R)?)
NC-Sen with R Burr (R), E Marshal (D), B Etheridge (D) and more

MAYBE LEAN REPUBLICAN RACES (updated)

Rank for senate: 64th to 68th
Rank for governors: 35th

NV-Sen with H Reid (D) and more
IA-Sen with C Grassley (R) and R Conlin (D)
LA-Sen with D Vitter (R) and C Melancon (D)
FL-Sen with K Meek (D), C Crist (R), M Rubio (R) and more
MI-Gov with J Cherry (D), M Cox (R), P Hoekstra (R) and more
ND-Sen with B Dorgan (D) and J Hoeven (R)

MAYBE LIKELY REPUBLICAN RACES (updated)

Rank for senate: 69th to 70th
Rank for governors: no-one

GA-Sen
TX-Sen
and maybe more not included in these diaries polls

The difference between Lean D or R and Toss-Up groups is not high. For that i give these names to the groups in my view over diaries polls. Maybe right.

The differences between the ranks for senate and governor based in external polls between dem and republican candidates and the rank based in these three polls show us like any external pollsters are giving results what favored specially to republicans.

After the votes we can confirm like last polls about CO-Sen (by Rassmusen), CO-Gov (by Rasmussen too) and NH-Sen (by the Univ of New Hampshire) are favoring specially republicans against the peoples votes in these three diaries. And i think these are very logical results, i think they are results in the right direction, but i get a bit surprised by the confidence in the people about win these race. I glad by that. Sure they are races for fight strongly if is needed.

The peoples votes in diaries polls let us see confiance about incumbent democratic governors can keep their offices in 2010. The more endangered incunbent would be C Culver from Iowa. We can tell the people here think W Ritter is not seriously endangered. We can tell too the people is not afraid now about T Thompson (R) possibly bid for WI-Gov race. Good signs.

For senate democratic incumbents diaries poll show endangered C Dodd, H Reid and B Dorgan. And a good chance of win NH-Sen and MO-Sen races.

We can conclude, the ranks by last polls, and this rank by diaries polls agree about the higher difficulty for democrats keeping the number of senate seats and the tie point for senate than keeping the number of gubernatorial seats and the tie point for governors.

I hope all that became interesting for you.

Originally posted to abgin on Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 12:35 AM PST.

Poll

Vote for the race more difficult for democrats in this group.

6%2 votes
10%3 votes
10%3 votes
0%0 votes
16%5 votes
3%1 votes
3%1 votes
20%6 votes
6%2 votes
0%0 votes
13%4 votes
6%2 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
3%1 votes

| 30 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  I don't see the Dems picking up any seats in (0+ / 0-)

    the Senate. I think It is most likely that they will drop a couple to the GOP.

    Don't give a damn a/t each & every politician currently alive in the US. Last time i voted for the top part of the ballot was 1972. Never missed SB election

    by Mutual Assured Destruction on Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 12:48:01 AM PST

    •  Maybe (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      But i think dems will have not very bad results for senate. We need remember current results came from 2004 a not good context for dems.

      Like the people think will be difficult win again North Dakota, Nevada and maybe Connecticut, Colorado and Arkansas.

      And will be too difficult win new seats. We can not think in Pennsylvania like a new gain because now Specter is dem. The more favourables can be Missouri, New Hampshire and maybe Ohio. Im afraid by Ohio because R Portman is a very strong foundraiser. I see lower chance for other new seats including Kentucky.

      The final results should be between 1/2 for Dems and +1. That if J Lieberman became not republican before.

      •  There will be no new seats. Unemployment at 10% (0+ / 0-)

        means that there will, for sure, be some gains for the republicans. I think Arkansas is a goner. If Lincoln votes for the health care bill and the p.o, she can assure herself a defeat. Connecticut is a deeply blue state and Dodds will find ways to get reelected. Reid will be reelected as well as Specter.

        But Blanche is on very very shaky ground. And we will not pick up any seats, especially Missouri, unless the GOP selects someone who is totally inadequate.

        Don't give a damn a/t each & every politician currently alive in the US. Last time i voted for the top part of the ballot was 1972. Never missed SB election

        by Mutual Assured Destruction on Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 08:25:51 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  My analysis? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    Democrats win Kentucky, Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and possibly new Hampshire.

    Democrats lose Arkansas, Florida, Connecticut, and possibly Delaware.

    Result? US Senate - Democrats +1 effective Jan. 2010

    Jan. 2010 - 59 Democrats, 39 Republicans, 2 Independents (Sanders goes Dem; Lieberman goes GOP).

  •  oops... I meant January 2011 (n/t) (0+ / 0-)
  •  Hope we can Retire John McCain" (0+ / 0-)

    Is there anyone to run against him...

    I Accept as a Call to Action for all Nations to Solve the World's most pressing Problems. ~ Barack Obama

    by tazzz on Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 01:07:23 AM PST

  •  I'm having some trouble understanding (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pat208, abgin

    Your groups. In the first group, I thought it was current dem senate seats that are up for election in 10 but then I see Ohio, and Voinovich's seat is a Rep seat, so I don't know what that first cluster means?
    Then I think that maybe it is the seats that you think will either stay or turn dem in 10? but then I see polls at -5 in that group.
    Can you clarify?
    Thanks

    •  You have the groups updated now (0+ / 0-)

      after the poll votes. Now you will see the groups more complet.

      The groups are stablished by near number of votes in the polls, when the people is asked about the danger for any race.

      This second way for establish a difference between races find feelings. We have three groups with close but different level of difficulty, and i find the feeling of danger for these races in the people, thinking is not the same have any (few) votes or have no-one vote when we ask about the feeling of danger for the group.

  •  Dems will pick up seats in the Senate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cwholcomb

    We may lose Harry Reid (maybe)

    But we are certainly competitive in:

    Ohio (open seat)
    Kentucky  (open seat)
    North Carolina  (R- Burr incumbent)
    Louisiana  (R-Vitter scandal plagued, vulnerable)
    Missouri  (R-Bond leaving)

    With the right candidate we could even get one or more of:
    Florida  (open seat)
    Texas  (open seat after fractious GOP primary)
    Arizona  (unseat McCain)
    Alaska  (unseat Murkowski)
    Iowa (unseat Grassley)

    These are all seats the GOP must defend just to keep its current numbers.  What are the odds they will successfully defend all of them?  Let alone pick up seats from a Dem.  Where?

    Illinois?  yeah, right.  R-Mark Kirk is being targeted by teabaggers for a right wing primary.

    Delaware?  Massachusetts?  California? New York? (don't bet on Giuliani still being able to spread 9-11 pixie dust forever)

    North Dakota? Small states do not evict senators with seniority without a damn good reason  Dorgan is safe.

    Harry Reid is frustrating to a lot of Dems, but if he were to pledge not to run for majority leader again it may actually improve his chances back home.

    Our greatest vulnerabilities are in Colorado (untried replacement player in Bennett), Reid in Nevada and any place where the Dem retires or dies between now and election day.

    There just are not a lot of places where the GOP can get any traction, run the table on protecting their seats while grabbing a few of ours.

    Apart from a national electorate so fed up that they adopt a "hang 'em all" attitude about incumbents come next November, the Dems are poised to pick up seats (I think it will be three) and be competitive in at least three others.

    •  I agree with you about reps will have problems (0+ / 0-)

      They will have very high problems for keep any seats.

      First they will have high problems for keep their number or governors in blue states, because they are losing all their curren incumbents (CA, HI, MN, VT, RI and surely CT and NV). Is very difficult they win the necessary number of new governors in blue states for keep this seven.

      And later they will have more problems in any seats more. Like you tell we are certainly competitive in more races. Sure in all of the races included in last rank, until likely republican.

      If you wish see, the diary is updated. You will see better now the overview.

  •  Some head-scratchers for me... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    including the following:
    Senate:
    .Dodd's precarious position (exactly what horrible thing has he done to warrant this, other than running for president, like a large number of other senators?)
    .Bennet in Colorado (hasn't Colorado been trending Democratic of late?),

    As far as governors:
    .NY: Why are pollsters using Andrew Cuomo to predict a Democratic hold on this seat when, in fact highly unpopular Democratic Governor Dave Paterson (who is fine by me, but not most New Yorkers) is insisting, like Corzine did this year, on running despite atrociously horrid poll numbers. He's already begun running ads,  as of this week, according to a local television station report last night.
    .Minnesota: Democrats are pinning their hopes on the highly unpopular former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton, who retired rather than face near-certain defeat? Whu...the....?

    •  If you wish see, the diary is updated (0+ / 0-)

      after the votes in the poll.

      You are telling interesting things.

      I think just CO-Sen and CT-Sen will be very important races for dems for keep results in the senate. They are more but these will be very importants.

      About D Paterson i think he should not run for governor. I think is a good man but democratic party have an stronger candidate, and i think A Cuomo must be in the race. Any times i think. Why not D Paterson for NY AG?

      About Minnesota im optimistic. Democratic Party have now in the race the two more clear frontrunners, M Dayton and T Ribak. I think they would have the best candidate for governor after the primaries. And republicans have nothing without T Pawlenty.

      •  me, too... (0+ / 0-)

        ...my preference would be for Paterson to step aside. However, Cuomo has stated publicly, again and again, that he has no intention of challenging Paterson in a primary. Cuomo already had a lot of fence-mending to do after challenging the Democratic nominee running against Pataki several years ago (Carl McCall); Cuomo dropped out of the primary race at the last minute, but only after forcing McCall to devote a lot of time, energy, effort and resources on the primary race, resources that would have been much more effectively spend against Pataki in the general election.

        My "reading between the lines" with regard to Cuomo is that Cuomo has no intention of endangering the fences that he's managed to mend since that gubernatorial primary race. He is likely to be this state's next Democratic governor, based on popularity and polls against all Republicans. Whether that will be in 2010 or 2014 depends on Dave Paterson.

        Another guess by me: Dave Paterson has, in the past, been a strong team player for the Democrats. He's running ads right now, probably the earliest an incumbent governor has begun running ads for re-election in this state. My guess is that he's trying to bring his poll numbers up; if that succeeds, he'll probably continue his quest for reelection and all of the gnashing of teeth will subside. If his early ad campaign does not succeed, however, that still gives him plenty of time to drop out in favor of someone else (i.e. Cuomo).

        That's my best guess as to what's going on.

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