This is the third diary and last diary of a serie what have previously this two diaries:
Rank for senate 2010 and rank for governor 2010 by last polls.
Rank for senate 2010 and rank for governor 2010 by last polls II.
Today we have no changes in the ranks because we know not new poll. The more important news today are the confirmation of R Conlin and T Ribak are in for IA-Sen and MN-Gov races. Good news.
I remember the ranks:
RANK FOR SENATE 2010 BY LAST POLLS
November 06, 2009 edition of the rank of senate seats by last polls.
41 Dem senate seats without elections in 2010 (39 Dem + 2 Ind)
42nd OR-Sen R Wyden --------- W Polls ------------- ?
43rd IN-Sen E Bayh ------------ W Polls -------------- ?
44th MD-Sen B Mikulski -------- U Polls -------------- ?
45th NY-Sen C Schumer ------- U Polls -------------- ?
46th VT-Sen P Leahy ----------- O Polls -(+22 %)-- ** J Douglas
47th WA-Sen P Murray -------- O Polls -(+13 %)-- ** D Reichert
48th HI-Sen D Inouye --------- O Polls -(+12 %)-- ** L Lingle
49th NY-Sen K Gillibrand ------ O Polls -(- 17 %)-- ** R Giuliani
50th MA-Sen M Coakley ------- +26 % -------------- S Brown
51st WI-Sen R Feingold ------- +18 % ------------- M Green
52nd CA-Sen B Boxer ----------- +14 % ------------- C Fiorina
53rd IL-Sen A Giannoulias ---- +03 % ------------- M Kirk
54th PA-Sen A Specter -------- +02 % ------------- P Toomey
55th AR-Sen B Lincoln --------- +02 % ------------- G Baker
56th MO-Sen R Carnahan ---- =00 % -------------- R Blunt
57th DE-Sen B Biden ----------- - 01 % -------------- M Castle
58th OH-Sen L Fisher ---------- - 01 % ------------- R Portman
59th KY-Sen J Conway -------- - 04 % ------------- T Grayson (- 10% D Mongiardo Dem)
60th CT-Sen C Dodd ----------- - 05 % ------------- R Simmons
TIE POINT 2009
61st NV-Sen H Reid ------------ - 05 % ------------- S Lowden / D Tarkanian
62nd TX-Sen W White ---------- - 06 % ------------- D Dewhurst / G Abbott
63rd NH-Sen P Hodes ---------- - 07 % ------------- K Ayotte
64th NC-Sen E Marshall ------- - 10 % ------------- R Burr
65th GA-Sen J Marshall -------- - 08 % ------------- J Isakson
66th CO-Sen M Bennet -------- - 09 % ------------- J Norton
67th IA-Sen R Conlin ----------- - 12 % ------------ C Grassley
68th LA-Sen C Melancon ------ - 12 % ------------- D Vitter
69th FL-Sen K Meek ----------- - 15 % -------------- M Rubio (-12% C Christ)
70th ND-Sen B Dorgan -------- - 17 % -------------- J Hoeven
71st AZ-Sen G Giffords -------- - 27 % -------------- J McCain
72nd KS-Sen ** K Sebelius --- O Polls -(+10 %)-- T Tiahrt
73rd AK-Sen ** A Knowles --- O Polls -(- 08 %)-- L Murkowski
74th SD-Sen ** S Herseth-H - O Polls -(- 12 %)-- J Thune
75th OK-Sen ** B Henry ------ O Polls -(- 12 %)-- T Coburn
76th UT-Sen ** J Matheson--- O Polls -(- 23 %)-- R Bennett
77th SC-Sen ? ------------------ W Polls -------------- J DeMint
78th AL-Sen ? ------------------- W Polls -------------- R Shelby
79th ID-Sen ? ------------------- W Polls -------------- M Crapo
21 Rep senate seats without elections in 2010 (21 Rep)
W Polls = Without Polls
U Polls = Unusable Polls
O Polls = Orientative Polls (with theorical frontrunners what lose handly in the polls, what are out - likely out too - the races)
RANK FOR GOVERNORS 2010 BY LAST POLLS
November 06, 2009 edition of the rank for governors by last polls.
07 Dem governors without elections in 2010
08th WY-Gov D Freudenthal - W Polls ------------- ?
09th AR-Gov M Beebe --------- W Polls ------------- ?
10th NM-Gov D Denish -------- O Polls -(+22 %)-- ** S Pearce / H Wilson
11th MD-Gov M O'Malley ------ O Polls -(+07 %)-- ** R Ehrlich
12th NY-Gov A Cuomo -------- +40 % -------------- R Lazio
13th OR-Gov J Kitzhaber ----- +27 % -------------- A Allen
14th NH-Gov J Lynch ---------- +21 % -------------- J Kimball
15th CA-Gov J Brown ---------- +21 % ------------- M Withman
16th MA-Gov D Patrick -------- +10 % -------------- C Baker
17th HI-Gov M Hannemann -- +10 % -------------- J Aiona (+09% N Abercrombie Dem)
18th AZ-Gov T Goddard ------- +07 % -------------- J Brewer
19th IL-Gov P Quinn ----------- +07 % -------------- W Brady
20th MN-Gov M Dayton -------- O Polls -(- 04 %)-- ** T Pawlenty
21st CT-Gov S Bysiewicz ------ O Polls -(- 06 %)-- ** J Rell (? N Lamont Dem)
22nd VT-Gov D Racine --------- W Polls ------------- ?
23rd RI-Sen F Caprio ---------- W Polls ------------- ?
24th OH-Gov T Strickland ----- +01 % ------------- J Kasich
25th FL-Gov A Sink ------------- +01 % ------------- W McCollum
26th NV-Gov O Goodman ----- =00 % ------------- B Sandoval
27th SC-Gov J Rex -------------- =00 % ------------- H McNaster
28th WI-Gov T Barrett --------- - 01 % ------------- S Walker
TIE POINT 2009 (yesterdays changes will come in 2010)
29th GA-Gov R Barnes --------- - 02 % ------------- J Oxendine
30th ME-Gov E Mitchell -------- - 03 % -------------- P Mills
31st PA-Gov J Wagner -------- - 04 % -------------- T Corbett
32nd AL-Gov A Davis ---------- - 04 % -------------- B Byrne
33rd IA-Gov C Culver --------- - 05 % -------------- T Branstad
34th CO-Gov W Ritter --------- - 05 % -------------- S McInnis
35th MI-Gov J Cherry ---------- - 15 % -------------- M Cox
OK
TX
TN
KS
AK
UT
SD
ID
NE
6 Rep governors without elections in 2010
W Polls = Without Polls
U Polls = Unusable Polls
O Polls = Orientative Polls (with theorical frontrunners what lose handly in the polls or what are out - likely out too - the races)
Here we have not news but i like write this diary because is needed end and analize the information what are giving us the polls included in previous and in current diary. I will update this diary when the number of votes up.
This three polls (included todays) combinated give us the chance of make between all a new rank for the closer races. This will be a different rank to previous, a rank maked by us with our votes in this diaries. With these polls we can not stablish a detailed new rank but we can stablish any groups for the closest races.
These are the groups what we can see in these three polls (the diary will be updated after know todays poll results):
MAYBE LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RACES (updated)
Rank for senate: 53th
Rank for governors: 24th to 26th
OH-Gov with T Strickland (D) and J Kasich (R)
WI-Gov with T Barrett (D), S Walker (R) and M Neumann (R) (maybe T Thompson (R)?)
CO-Gov with W Ritter (D), S McInnis (R), J Penry (R) and more
NH-Sen with P Hodes (D), K Ayotte (R) and more
MAYBE LEAN DEMOCRATIC RACES (updated)
Rank for senate: 54th to 59th
Rank for governors: 27th to 29th (included the Tie Point for gubernatorial races between 28th and 29th)
IL-Sen with A Giannoulias (D), M Kirk (R) and more
PA-Sen with A Specter (D), P Toomey (R) and J Sestak (D)
AR-Sen with B Lincoln (D), G Baker (R) and more
NV-Gov with O Goodman (D), B Sandoval (R), R Reid (D) and more
MO-Sen with R Carnaham (D), R Blunt (R) and more
DE-Sen with J Biden (D), M Castle (D), and more
GA-Gov with R Barnes (D), J Oxendine (R), T Baker (D), and more
ME-Gov with E Mitchell (D), P Mills (R) and more
CO-Sen with M Bennet (D), J Norton (R) and more
MAYBE TOSS-UP RACES (updated)
Rank for senate: 60th to 63rd (included the Tie Point for senate, between 60th and 61st)
Rank for governors: 30th to 34th
FL-Gov with A Sink (D) and W McCollum (R)
SC-Gov with J Rex (D), H McMaster (R), A Bauer (R) and G Barrett (R)
OH-Sen with L Fisher (D), R Portman (R) and J Brunner (D)
PA-Gov with J Wagner (D), T Corbett (R) and more
AL-Gov with A Davis (D), B Byrne (R) and more
KY-Sen with D Mongiardo (D), J Conway (D), T Grayson (R) and R Paul (R)
IA-Gov with C Culver (D) and T Branstad (R)
CT-Sen with C Dodd (D), R Simmons (R) and more (maybe J Rell (R)?)
NC-Sen with R Burr (R), E Marshal (D), B Etheridge (D) and more
MAYBE LEAN REPUBLICAN RACES (updated)
Rank for senate: 64th to 68th
Rank for governors: 35th
NV-Sen with H Reid (D) and more
IA-Sen with C Grassley (R) and R Conlin (D)
LA-Sen with D Vitter (R) and C Melancon (D)
FL-Sen with K Meek (D), C Crist (R), M Rubio (R) and more
MI-Gov with J Cherry (D), M Cox (R), P Hoekstra (R) and more
ND-Sen with B Dorgan (D) and J Hoeven (R)
MAYBE LIKELY REPUBLICAN RACES (updated)
Rank for senate: 69th to 70th
Rank for governors: no-one
GA-Sen
TX-Sen
and maybe more not included in these diaries polls
The difference between Lean D or R and Toss-Up groups is not high. For that i give these names to the groups in my view over diaries polls. Maybe right.
The differences between the ranks for senate and governor based in external polls between dem and republican candidates and the rank based in these three polls show us like any external pollsters are giving results what favored specially to republicans.
After the votes we can confirm like last polls about CO-Sen (by Rassmusen), CO-Gov (by Rasmussen too) and NH-Sen (by the Univ of New Hampshire) are favoring specially republicans against the peoples votes in these three diaries. And i think these are very logical results, i think they are results in the right direction, but i get a bit surprised by the confidence in the people about win these race. I glad by that. Sure they are races for fight strongly if is needed.
The peoples votes in diaries polls let us see confiance about incumbent democratic governors can keep their offices in 2010. The more endangered incunbent would be C Culver from Iowa. We can tell the people here think W Ritter is not seriously endangered. We can tell too the people is not afraid now about T Thompson (R) possibly bid for WI-Gov race. Good signs.
For senate democratic incumbents diaries poll show endangered C Dodd, H Reid and B Dorgan. And a good chance of win NH-Sen and MO-Sen races.
We can conclude, the ranks by last polls, and this rank by diaries polls agree about the higher difficulty for democrats keeping the number of senate seats and the tie point for senate than keeping the number of gubernatorial seats and the tie point for governors.
I hope all that became interesting for you.