Disappointing news out of Beirut today, as the brokered peace agreement that ended the second war between Israel and Lebanon will not be honored:
Lebanon's new government endorsed Hezbollah's right to keep its weapons on Wednesday, despite criticism in Lebanon of the Iran-backed militant organization's refusal to disarm.
[...]
Wednesday's move was the latest sign that Hezbollah has no intention of meeting a United Nations resolution that ended the 2006 Second Lebanon War, during which the group fired about 4,000 rockets into Israel.
The UN resolution required Hezbollah to give up its arsenal.
(Ha'aretz)
On Monday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah addressed foreign journalists from a live video feed, and presented Hezbollah's political manifesto during the event. As part of that manifesto, the Arab world would, if Hezbollah had its druthers, engage in armed conflict with Israel to bring about the end of the State, and eventually establish an Islamic republic in Lebanon. More from Ha'aretz:
"We are amid historical transformations that signal the retreat of the U.S. role and the demise of the Hebrew State," Nasrallah said.
"The most dangerous aspect of the U.S. logic is that they think they own the world and are entitled to dominate it, based on superiority in several domains."
The new manifesto drops reference to an Islamic republic in Lebanon, which has a substantial Christian population, confirming changes to Hezbollah thinking about the need to respect Lebanon's diversity.
Five things immediately spring to mind when I read this:
- Hezbollah's refusal to disarm and Beirut's appeasement of that decision should come as a surprise to no one. For all its political activity, Hezbollah has always been guided by its paramilitary and/or terrorist activities, and there's really no one to stand in the way of its armed wing.
- This will validate the almost universally-held belief among Jerusalem's political class that dealing with Hezbollah is pointless, and that working through the UN is at best an exercise in futility, and at worst suicidal.
- When the predictable "ho-hum" reaction to this news comes from the UN, it will (fairly or unfairly) give significant strength to the idea that the UN only steps in when acting against Israel.
- That at least part of this is a consequence of Jerusalem's ham-handed approach to the 2006 conflict in which they inflicted significant damage on southern Lebanon, but achieved little other than misery for a lot of folks and a shaky truce that seems to be on borrowed time.
- Beirut's nominal government really is as weak as it seems when it comes to dealing with Hezbollah. Indeed, as the Daily Star noted, "Nasrallah stressed the continued importance of the resistance, given the absence of a 'strong capable Lebanese state' and the power imbalance between Lebanon and Israel."
Also of note was Nasrallah's strident belligerence toward Washington. Strong anti-American sentiments within Hizbollah probably surprises no one, but if anyone had any doubt as to where the organization stood, Nasrallah eliminated those:
Hezbollah's chief on Monday announced the group's new "manifesto," which calls on all countries to "liberate Jerusalem" and declares the United States a threat to the world.
"American terrorism is the source of every terrorism in the world," Hassan Nasrallah said in a televised speech from an undisclosed location.(CNN)
What came as a surprise, at least to me, was the lip service that Nasrallah paid to Palestinians in Lebanon. To me, when he says "basic human rights which at the same time protect their identity and their cause," the bolded portion is a thinly veiled acknowledgment that they would continue to be second-class citizens in Lebanon:
Nasrallah also called for Palestinians in Lebanon to "be given basic human rights which at the same time protect their identity and their cause."
Under Lebanese law, Palestinian refugees have no social and civil rights, limited access to public health or educational facilities, and no access to public social services, according to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency.
"The majority rely entirely on UNRWA as the sole provider of education, health and relief and social services," the agency says on its Web site. "Considered as foreigners, Palestine refugees are prohibited by law from working in more than 70 trades and professions. This has led to a very high rate of unemployment amongst the refugee population."
(CNN)
The Palestinian cause has long been a unifying theme for Arab citizens across the Middle East, but mostly with regard to Israel, and less with regard to Palestinians within their own borders. Nasrallah's statement would seem to indicate that he's only interested in the Palestinian cause insofar as it relates to Hezbollah's conflict with Israel.
What does this mean in the immediate term for Middle East peace? Probably not much--the Lebanon/Israel border has been relatively quiet of late. But in the longer term, if hostilities were to break out again, we may see another conflict with similar damage to 2006, especially since Jerusalem will be armed with the knowledge that Hezbollah will not abide the terms of a settlement if they don't care to.
Hardy an encouraging development...