A few days ago, I wrote a diary on the state of the illiberal "Liberal" Party in Australia, which was busy tearing itself apart over the issue of climate change and what to do about it. There were the moderates who were aligned, after negotiation, with the Labor Party over an emissions trading scheme. But then there were the conservatives (a kind term for them, all things considered), who scuttled the deal in the Australian Senate after much drama, and after tossing out their moderate-on-this-issue leader, Malcolm Turnbull (in a party room vote of 42 to 41).
The new leader, Tony Abbott, has been in charge for just a few days. It had begun to look as if the moderates would go quietly, but lo ... Turnbull has stepped back up to the plate - of which, more in a minute. In the meantime, Abbott has been very short on detail about what the Liberal Party's own climate change policy would - when crafted - look like, except that it won't be an E.T.S., nor will it be a tax on carbon. It won't be a tax, period, which seemed to be code for it won't cost anything. Well, here's a bit of Turnbull on that:
First, let's get this straight. You cannot cut emissions without a cost. To replace dirty coal fired power stations with cleaner gas fired ones, or renewables like wind let alone nuclear power or even coal fired power with carbon capture and storage is all going to cost money.
To get farmers to change the way they manage their land, or plant trees and vegetation all costs money.
Somebody has to pay.
So any suggestion that you can dramatically cut emissions without any cost is, to use a favourite term of Mr Abbott, "bullshit." Moreover he knows it.
The whole argument for an emissions trading scheme as opposed to cutting emissions via a carbon tax or simply by regulation is that it is cheaper - in other words, electricity prices will rise by less to achieve the same level of emission reductions.
The term you will see used for this is "least cost abatement".
It is not possible to criticise the new Coalition policy on climate change because it does not exist. Mr Abbott apparently knows what he is against, but not what he is for.
Turnbull is not going to the back benches quietly. All by himself, he would be a very considerable disruptive force. But it is hard to believe he will be by himself in this. Some of those 41 supporters will go with him.
Second, as we are being blunt, the fact is that Tony and the people who put him in his job do not want to do anything about climate change. They do not believe in human caused global warming. As Tony observed on one occasion "climate change is crap" or if you consider his mentor, Senator Minchin, the world is not warming, it's cooling and the climate change issue is part of a vast left wing conspiracy to deindustrialise the world.
True, Minchin actually did say that. And "crap" was Tony's word about climate change. Turnbull is not letting them, nor the Australian people, forget this stuff. Moreover, he is of the view that the reason for the absence of sensible policy direction from Tony Abbott and his supporters is that they are merely deniers who suspect a conspiracy - so why would they want or feel the need to produce sensible policy?
Now politics is about conviction and a commitment to carry out those convictions. The Liberal Party is currently led by people whose conviction on climate change is that it is "crap" and you don't need to do anything about it. Any policy that is announced will simply be a con, an environmental figleaf to cover a determination to do nothing.
Whatever policy may eventually see the light of day will be a con: this is a charge levelled at the present moral character of the Party as led by Abbott and Minchin, one that he repeats in case we didn't get it the first time:
Third, there is a major issue of integrity at stake here and Liberals should reflect very deeply on it. We have an Opposition whose current leadership dismisses the Howard Government's ETS policy as being just a political ploy. We have an Opposition Leader who has in the space of a few months held every possible position on the issue, each one contradicting the position he expressed earlier. And finally we have an Opposition which negotiated amendments to the Rudd Government's ETS, then reached agreement on those amendments and then, a week later, reneged on the agreement.
Many Liberals are rightly dismayed that on this vital issue of climate change we are not simply without a policy, without any prospect of having a credible policy but we are now open to the charge that we are also without integrity. We have given our opponents the irrefutable, undeniable evidence that we cannot be trusted to keep our word or maintain a consistent position on the issue of climate change.
It looks to 'be on' between moderates and conservatives within the Australian political right over climate change and what to do about it. Happily, the battle is not between the left as represented by the Labor Party and the right as represented by the Liberals and Nationals, but is taking place within the political right itself.
I am no great friend of Malcolm Turnbull's, but on this one he is a lot closer to the mark than Tony Abbott on Nick Minchin are, and I wish him well in his efforts to bring the Liberal Party to its senses on this issue.