Siena and Quinnipiac released statewide polls yesterday that surveyed, among other things, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's election prospects next year.
The two polls' findings were essentially similar, with one glaring exception -- how Gillibrand would fare in a primary with lame-duck NYC Comptroller Bill Thompson.
Following his closer-than-expected loss in last month's mayoral election, Thompson has been promoted by last-gasp anti-Gillibrand Democrats in the city, notably NY-16 Rep. Jose Serrano, who believe that both Senate seats belong to NYC.
(At right, Gillibrand campaigns with Scott Murphy in a diner during the NY-20 special election.)
Details, below.
According to Quinnipiac's two-person question, Thompson is ahead of Gillibrand by 41-28.
Siena, on the other hand, has Gillibrand up by 32-23, with Harold Ford getting 7 percent and Jonathan Tasini getting 3 percent.
The Quinnipiac poll is not all bad news for Gillibrand -- it found that 40 percent of its respondents approved of how she is doing her job, up from 32 in October.
And that Gillibrand would perform somewhat better than Thompson against (unlikely) GOP candidate Rudy 9/11.
The Siena poll finds that Gillibrand is even stronger than Thompson vs. Giuliani -- she trails him by 49-42, while Thompson lags by 56-34.
Thompson's standing in both polls is obviously affected by his mayoral campaign, which spent about $10 million getting him better-known in the five boroughs.
The mayoral campaign, and the unexpected closeness of the result, also got a lot of media coverage in NYC, and memories of that are fresh.
Gillibrand has not spent a dime on ads, yet, and is still basically unknown by a substantial plurality of poll respondents.
As a Gillibrand supporter, I naturally wish her poll numbers were higher. She has a quite progressive Senate voting record, has taken leadership positions on food safety, DADT, protecting children from dangerous consumer products, and the Stupak amendment, has been a tireless advocate for her state, and has worked hard to get out and meet New Yorkers.
But there's been a lot of other news of all kinds since January, and Gillibrand's exemplary work as our Senator has often been ignored by the media.
Gillibrand has made countless positive impressions on New Yorkers in person (including this remarkable one on Jon Cooper, who had been planning a primary challenge for months).
Inevitably, that will start showing up in the polls.