In the immediate aftermath of Sunday's Ashura protests the battle lines are being drawn and the verbal war is being escalated as well. Statements by Ali Larijani, Speaker of the Majlis and the spokesman for Mir Hossein Mousavi indicate that neither side is giving in. In addition, the government summoned the British ambassador to accuse the Britain and the US of fomenting dissent in Iran and playing a role in the current protests.
On the government side a couple of things are taking place. Ali Larijani, the Speaker of the Majlis and one of three brothers who are very much part of the Khamenei governing structure, said he "wants the judiciary and intelligence bodies to arrest those who insult religion and impose the maximum punishment on them without reservation". See Al Jazeera here:December 29th. Officially the government summoned the British ambassador reporting their intention of accusing the West, Britain and the US in particular, of supporting the protesters and meddling Iran's internal affairs. See here: Daily Mail.
In an area of intersection between the government and the Reform Movement there are two specific acts of intimidation. Mir Hossein Mousavi's nephew was killed in Sunday's protest, and Shirin Ebadi's sister has been arrested. Both of these actions show a very typical government tactic that has been used for quite some time. The government and their shadowy henchmen know that it is problematic for them to strike directly at Mir Hossein Mousavi or Shirin Ebadi or a Reform Ayatollah like Yusef Saanei. Instead, they go after people close to them in a effort to get them to back off or relent. In this area, Mousavi has escalated the verbal war, however, as spokesmen for him have specifically accused the government of intentionally targeting his nephew, and that his death was nothing less than assassination. This is a bold and somewhat dangerous accusation to make and we'll see how this plays out. It certainly indicates that they are digging in their heels and they will not go quietly. See Here: Christain Science Monitor December 28th.
The government is likely looking for any excuse to arrest Mir Hossein Mousavi, but it has to be significant. They probably could find some pretext to arrest him now, but not one they could win with in the court of public opinion. Even though Iran has an authoritarian regime, they still must be mindful of public opinion as growing sympathy for the Reformers could gain converts to their cause and set the path for more pressure to change their behavior. The fact that they are going to the old standby accusations of foreign intervention is not a sign of strength. Very few Iranians are going to believe that Mir Hossein Mousavi is in the pay of foreigners. However, the charge in general is not baseless.
In the Eastern Province of Baluchistan the Jundullah are perfectly willing to fight the government and don't mind suicide bombings either. US support for them cannot be proven or disproved, and the $400 million Bush got for "regime destabilization" had to have gone somewhere. Now, it takes a government like Ahmadinejad/Khamenei to try to conflate the Jundallah with the Greens--but they are not the only government involved in a little conflation for their own purposes--remember Saddam's links to 9/11? Then there is the MEK. A pleasant little group of Iranians who fought for Saddam Hussien in the 1980s. They are a cultish kind of group that in the 60s and 70s blended Islam and Marxism. They are still around and the likely source for much questionable intelligence that the US has retrieved from Iran over the last decade or more.
Things may be quiet for a few days, but there is little doubt that plans are being made on both sides, and those plans are likely getting more dramatic.