As if we already knew that Northwest Flight 253 is shaping up to be the the biggest intelligence failure since 9-11, the NYT has more proof. Apparently we had word as late as August that something may have been about to come down--but no one connected the dots.
The National Security Agency four months ago intercepted conversations among leaders of Al Qaeda in Yemen discussing a plot to use a Nigerian man for a coming terrorist attack, but American spy agencies later failed to combine the intercepts with other information that might have disrupted last week’s attempted airline bombing.
The NSA intercepted these conversations just as Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab arrived in Yemen. However, officials at the National Counterterrorism Center didn't connect the dots when Abdulmutallab's father warned the American embassy in Nigeria that his son might have been getting mixed up in a jihad.
If this NYT story is to be believed, so far blame for the Northwest 253 snafu can be placed on the NTC and the CIA. While much has been made in the last 24 hours of the CIA's failure to pass its profile of Abdulmutallab to other agencies, the NTC also had a chance to red-flag him--and blew it.
At the counterterrorism center, analysts looked at the cable from the embassy in Nigeria and deliberated over just how severe a threat Mr. Abdulmutallab presented. Sometime during that period, other information began flowing in that terrorist groups might be planning an attack timed around the Christmas holiday. But the intelligence analysts did not connect this to the story of Mr. Abdulmutallab.
It sounds like if all the dots had been connected by then, Abdulmutallab would have been stopped in Amsterdam.
The NYT also notes that even if he hadn't been on the no-fly list, he could have been stopped since a profile of his reservation indicated he paid for his ticket in cash and didn't check any bags. However, Homeland Security didn't think there was enough to indicate he was a threat. It would seem, though, that had the CIA and NTC been on the ball, Homeland Security would have had enough information to at least insist that Abdulmutallab be searched further before being allowed on the plane.
The bottom line? If I were Michael Leiter, I'd be getting my resume ready.