I'm freaked out about the Mass. Special Election. You're freaked out. We're all freaked out. Which is great because hopefully, it does something.
But I'd like to remind everyone that as we learned last Super Tuesday when Obama lost the Democratic primary, the Mass. Dem. Machine matters a lot with regard to GOTV and will probably (hopefully) save Coakley if she doesn't fall further (which given her incompetence at campaigning, shouldn't be taken for granted).
Just before Super Tuesday, Suffolk (those wonderful people) put out a poll showing Obama up by 2 (46 - 44). The final result? 56-40 in favor of Hillary. What happened? All those local officials, who Hillary had locked down, brought out their vote in force.
Heading in to Super Tuesday in 2008, the Obama campaign thought it had a real chance at Mass., having locked down the Kennedy, Kerry and Patrick endorsements, and with the Suffolk and Rasmussen polls showing virtual ties. From this pollster page, it looks like only SurveyUSA was showing the right numbers.
The issue was despite all his momentum, he didn't have the support of most of the mayors (including Menino) who are the real drivers of the Democratic machine. Hate her strategy of focusing on these people (as I do) as opposed to meeting ordinary voters, Coakley should have the support of more of these people who will hopefully get people out to vote.
Do we all need a kick in the pants? probably. Should that effect any of urgency of the GOTV efforts? No.
But I thought a little historical perspective would help calm the fatalism, I'm seeing around. (please, no, "She's toast" comments. They're kind of silly.)