Public Policy Polling (D) has announced the findings of their most recent Senate poll. They determine that Scott Brown (R) leads Martha Coakley (D) by 5 points, 51-46. Not encouraging news, to say the least. They do, however, qualify their findings, suggesting that the final result will depend heavily on turnout.
Full discussion below the fold.
The poll results indicate that Coakley's favorables are net negative, and that she is getting crushed by Brown among independents, with Brown even getting 20% of Obama voters. They also note that Republicans and Republican-leaners are far more excited to turn out, with 80% of Brown's voters suggesting they are excited to vote. Only 60% of Democrats say the same.
The poll does offer a few threads of hope. It notes that the margin is within the poll's margin of error, and a heavy Democratic turnout could ensure a Coakley win. They note that Democratic-leaning voters were reporting more interest and intensity in the last day, a trend which may suggest that Democrats are becoming engaged and planning to vote.
Let's be blunt: these numbers are not especially encouraging. But there's no use in giving up, especially when Brown's margin rests on PPP's likely voter model and is within the margin of error. If we can get Democrats to turn out in large numbers, Coakley wins. And at this point, I don't care what the margin is: I just want her to win.
Link to PPP's discussion of the poll results.
Link to full poll results (PDF) (slow).