Admit it. You didn't expect that 365 days after the inauguration of Barack Obama, an incredibly inspiring candidate and skilled political strategist, you'd be exclaiming 'WTF!! How did it come to this?' But here you (and I) are.
Below I explain what I think are the biggest political mistakes of 2009, and afterward talk about what the Democrats might do in 2010 to mitigate the damage these mistakes have wrought.
Is this a negative diary? Yes. Is there method to this madness? I hope so. In order to create a solution, we have to understand the problem. And if we bury our collective head in the sand and refuse to believe the sorry truth before our eyes things will only get worse. Does it suggest some steps to take along with the criticism. Yes indeed.
So let the listing begin. In order, from worstest to worst.
- Jobs, jobs, jobs. Failing to put large numbers of people back to work, no matter what the short-term budget considerations were, once it was obvious the recession would be far worse than predicted. Failing to realize what an unemployment rate of 10% and an underemployment rate of more than 17% would look like politically a year into the administration. (Yes, millions of jobs have likely been saved and/or created, but many millions more were needed).
- Wall Street. Not taking advantage of populist sentiment against Wall Street and the big banks, once the immediate danger of a depression was past. Instead, the administration is perceived as being in the thrall of Wall Street lackeys.
- Party discipline and an agenda.. Knowing that there would be a '60 votes in the Senate' window of opportunity sometime in 2009 once Specter switched but not putting together a powerful legislative agenda and the means to ram it through Congress during that window, a la Roosevelt's 100 days.
- Appearing to play the fool. Refusing to rein in Max Baucus and Harry Reid in their attempts to negotiate health care reform with obviously recalcitrant Republicans, delaying the bill into 2010 and possibly killing it. No one wants to feel like their leaders can't see the obvious.
- A Senate seat is a F*ing value thing. Not paying attention to Massachusetts and allowing Brown to sneak to a victory.
- Health Care Reform Backasswardsness. Creating a health care reform bill that does almost nothing for the average, working American for four years. Clever. Extremely clever. 11 dimensional chess played, unfortunately, in 3 dimensions.
- Don't Ask Don't Tell. Not ending DADT (for practical purposes) by administrative decree on January 21st, 2009. A move supported by some more than 60% of the populace, and promised by his Press Secretary in a moving one word answer before he took office, it would have kept many of his young and idealistic supporters true believers. Failure to do anything demoralized them instead and made many people who would have otherwise been euphoric very angry.
- Joe Lieberman. Failing to some way, some how, figure out what to do to neutralize Lieberman, making the Democrats in Congress and the entire administration appear to be licking his boots. No one wants to believe their leaders are helpless and/or spineless, controlled by someone who actively campaigned against his caucus' owncandidate for President.
- Carpe Diem. Not.. Failing to seize the momentum of Obama's Congressional address, Joe Wilson's outburst, and Alan Grayson's wicked attacks on Republicans by turning them into quick passage of health care reform legislation.
- Permitting the Big Lie. Failing to effectively counteract the 'Big Lie' memes of Tea Party activists: Socialism, increased taxes, Medicare cuts, death panels, birther conspiracies and all their other looney theories.
- Senate seats are F*ing valuable things. Appointing Seibilius Secretary of HHS instead of having her run for the open Senate seat in Kansas in 2010. Appointing then-Senator Ken Salazar as Secretary of the Interior, risking the Colorado Senate seat in 2010.
On a grander scale, I see three overarching themes:
Failure to inspire. As Mark Halerin wrote:
((Obama)) managed the economic crisis and kept the world from
going into a depression. He staffed the government with very qualified,
quality people. He showed he could be commander-in-chief and manage
these two difficult wars. What I think, ironically, the problem has
been is he's not inspired the country to feel a sense of optimism and
renewal and to be unified in a bipartisan way. Those are the things I
think people thought he would excel at. Those are, I think, are the
problems. He's making progress in governance, not necessarily in that
bully pulpit leadership.
Andrew Sullivan
Failure to understand your opposition.
The Democrats, and especially Obama, failed to understand their oppenents' mindset and strategy or at least failed to act to counteract it. When your opponents are willing to go all in, to pull out all the stops to oppose your goals, you can't continue to play with one hand outstretched and one hand tied behind your back.
Failure to understand your supporters.
Having run one of the most brilliant Presidential campaigns in history, the Obama political juggernaut seemingly failed to understand the very mindset of the people who elected them. Change wasn't just a slogan. They (we) really expected it. Consider just the first minute of this video (which ends up being a Tea Party rant, you can just stop it after the first minute):
Consider how the first minute intro ends: 'We Trusted You'. Powerful, no? If you were an Obama supporter might that be exactly how you feel right now? Hoodwinked? Misled? The Republicans are manipulating these feelings, looking to turn them into a sweeping victory in November, 2010.
What's the solution? There may be no good remedy: the recession may be too deep, the silenty majority too angry, the base too depressed. But smart people will act to to minimize future damage if they can't avert an immediate defeat, rather than surrender.
The Five Things Democrats Could Do Before the 2010 Elections (But Who's Counting)?
- Create two million jobs before November. Hire for public works. Provide huge incentives for employers to hire people. Hell, rebuild the entire country of Haiti with American labor and material if necessary. BUT JUST DO IT. A job created is 10 votes earned, and good medicine for a wounded country. Nothing matters, both politically and in the reality of the state of the union, as much as whether people have jobs.
- Pass a health care reform bill. Pass the Senate bill if necessary. Remove it from people's consciousness except as an accomplishment, however feeble. Then publicize the hell out of working people who do benefit from its immediate provisions, e.g. people who will have gotten insurance due to the new pre-existing condition fund; people who would have otherwise gone bankrupt because of the ban on limits; People who can maintain their COBRA coverage.
- Inspire. Roosevelt was able to inspire in the midst of a far worse situation. Figure out how the President can stop being perceived now just as an administrator and once again be an inspirer. Weekly Saturday Youtube videos just aren't cutting it..
- Force the Republicans into unpopular votes, especially on on health care.. Introduce legislation later this year to fix the health care reform bill's problems, and let Republicans shoot themselves in the foot as election time rolls around blocking (or not) individually popular fixes such as reduced premium ratios, taxes on the super rich instead of on workers' plans, moving up the dates on implementation of provisions banning pre-existing conditions, etc. Put some real teeth into the provisions against rescission and no yearly and lifetime limits, and rake over the coals any insurance company that tries to weasel out of its obligations thereunder.
- Get the base back. Eliminate DADT and put the screws to Wall Street. The proposed tax on big banks should be just the first step. Use reconciliation to ram then tax through to show that you mean business (pun intended), then propose more measures.
- Bi-partisanship did not work. Let's repeat that. Bi-partisanship did not work. It was a nice idea, and used with people who were sane would have likely produced results.
Message to Democratic Senate leaders: Republicans are not sane. Use every parliamentary trick to destroy the Republicans' ability to thwart in Congress. Deny them their earmarks. Threaten the nuclear option. Close their military bases. Use reconciliation to pass anything remotely budget-related. Play Calvinball, not softball.
But for the nation's sake, if not your own, DO SOMETHING. Don't just cower in fear for the next nine months, waiting for an even bigger disaster in the November elections. If you're going to go down, at least go down with some pride.
- Fire Tim Kaine.
...Taking Kennedy's seat at a moment when the health care package is still not passed would for Republicans be like finding both a bike and a pony under the Xmas tree.
fivethirtyeight.com. Enough said.
Ask Howard Dean (nicely) to come back as DNC Chairman. Make the 2010 election again be a grassroots effort. Unleash the campaign acumen of the people who ran the 2008 campaign on the key Senate and Congressional races. And/or get new ideas and new approaches. The Republicans are catching up in Internet technology (C.f. Brown). Figure out how to stay two steps ahead.
So what do you think? Is the list accurate? Are the remedies reasonable? If so, how can the grassroots make those in power listen?