I admire the hard work and commitment of all the folks here (like nyceve) who've been fighting for reconciliation on healthcare. But I don't see 51 votes right now. If you do, show me where I'm wrong!
There are now 59 members of the Democratic caucus. By my count, the following will vote against reconciliation: most of them are actually on record opposing it...
Bayh, Evan - (D - IN)
Byrd, Robert - (D - WV)
Conrad, Kent - (D - ND)
Feingold, Russell - (D - WI)
Landrieu, Mary - (D - LA)
Lieberman, Joseph - (I - CT)
Lincoln, Blanche - (D - AR)
McCaskill, Claire - (D - MO)
Nelson, Ben - (D - NE)
Webb, Jim - (D - VA)
That leaves 49 votes -- assuming you don't lose anyone else. And that's a big "if"! There are plenty of vulnerable Dems you COULD lose: Pryor, Begich, Bill Nelson, Feinstein, Tester, Mark Warner, etc., etc., etc.
So, best case scenario, you need one more, plus Biden. Who will it be? In today's political climate, what leverage do you have to get that vote? What leverage does Obama or Reid have? If you can't tell me, then your strategy means no healthcare reform at all.
I don't like the Senate bill either. But, bad as it is, when push comes to shove, it'll save a lot of lives. A year into this debate, if you can't tell me where the 51st vote is coming from, then reconciliation is wishful thinking.
I would prefer to be wrong. Show me where I'm wrong.