Summary:
MD has 8 reps: 1 R, 7 D
MA has 10 reps: all D
MI has 15 reps: 8 D, 7 R
Possibly vulnerable:
MD-01 (D)
MI-02 (R) (a little)
MI-03 (R)
MI-07 (D)
Filing deadlines
MD: July 6
MA: June 1
MI: May 11
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from AOL
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
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District: MD-01
Location Eastern MD, bordering DE; plus most of the shore of the Chesapeake map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Frank Kratovil (D)
VoteView 242
First elected 2008
2008 margin 49-48 over Andy Harris (less than 3,000 voes)
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents Andy Harris, who lost in 2008, but narrowly; Grady Romblad, Jeff Ghrist
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Vulnerable. Per Crisitunity's index the 5th most vulnerable Democrat. Kratovil has raised over $1 million and spent $243K. Harris has raised $650K and spent $222K. Ghrist has raised little, no info on Romblad.
District: MD-02
Location The western shore of the Chesapeake, plus odd bits farther west map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Dutch Ruppersberger (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 177
First elected 2002
2008 margin 72-25 over Richard Matthews
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 60-39
Bush margin 2004 45-54
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Although Ruppersberger has not formally filed, he has raised nearly half a million and spent $333K.
District: MD-03
Location An odd shaped district, including Annapolis map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative John Sarbanes Not confirmed
VoteView 102.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 70-30 over Thomas Harris
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 59-40
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents Kevin Carney, Benjamin Lawless (what a name for a guy running for Congress!)
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Sarbanes has raised half a million and spent half of that. The Republicans have raised little.
District: MD-04
Location Another odd shaped district, including area to the north and east of DC map
Cook PVI D + 31
Representative Donna Edwards (D)
VoteView 19
First elected 2008
2008 margin 86-13 over Peter James
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 85-14
Bush margin 2004 78-21
Current opponents There is a primary, and then Robert Broadus.
Demographics 37th fewest Whites, 13th most Blacks
Assessment Safe. Edwards has raised $338K and spent $211K. No info on the others.
District: MD-05
Location Mostly this is the southern part of MD to the west of the Chesapeake map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative Steny Hoyer (D)
VoteView 166
First elected 1981
2008 margin 74-24 over Collins Bailey
2006 margin 83-16 (over a Green party candidate)
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 65-34
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents Collins Bailey, Charles Loller, Thomas Defibaught
Demographics 28th highest median income; 28th fewest in poverty
Assessment Safe. Hoyer has raised over $2 million and spent $1.6 million.
District: MD-06
Location The westernmost part of MD, a thin wedge between PA, WV, and VA map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Roscoe Bartlett (R)
VoteView 328
First elected 1992
2008 margin 58-39 over Jennifer Daugherty
2006 margin 59-38
2004 margin 67-29
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Current opponents Andrew Duck and Casey Clark; Duck looks much more progressive to me.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Clark is outraising not only Duck, but Bartlett as well. That's promising. Bartlett is 83 years old. Duck lost to Bartlett in 2006, and in a primary in 2008. Clark has raised $145K and spent half that; Bartlett has raised a very meager $88K and spent $50K. Duck has raised little. Still, this is tough territory for Democrats.
District: MD-07
Location Baltimore and points west map
Cook PVI D + 25
Representative Elijah Cummings (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 77
First elected 1996
2008 margin 80-19 over Michael Hargadon
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 73-25
Obama margin 79-20
Bush margin 2004 26-73
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 31st most Blacks
Assessment Safe. Cummings has raised almost half a million and spent $361K
District: MD-08
Location North and west of DC, bordering VA map
Cook PVI D + 21
Representative Chris van Hollen (D)
VoteView 105.5
First elected 2002
2008 margin 75-22 over Steve Hudson
2006 margin 77-22
2004 margin 75-25
Obama margin 73-25
Bush margin 2004 30-69
Current opponents Steve Hudson
Demographics 17th highest median income
Assessment Safe. van Hollen has raised over a million and spent $680K. No info on Hudson.
District: MA-01
Location The largest CD in MA, more than half the state, in the west. Bordering NH, VT, NY and CT map
Cook PVI D + 14
Representative John Olver
VoteView 11.5
First elected 1991
2008 margin 73-27 over Nate Bech
2006 margin 76-23 (against an independent)
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 35-63
Current opponents Jeffrey Donelly
Demographics 60th fewest Black (1.6%), 71st most Democratic per Cook PVI
Assessment Safe. Olver has raised $343K and spent $191K. No info on Donelly.
District: MA-02
Location Southern MA, bordering CT and RI, from Springfield to Milford map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Richard Neal (D)
VoteView 62.5
First elected 1988
2008 margin unopposed
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Current opponents Jay Fleitman and Tom Wesley
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Neal has raised almost a million and spent $400K. Fleitman has raised little. No info on Wesley.
District: MA-03
Location MA-03 runs from the middle of the state southeast to Somerset, and borders RI map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Jim McGovern (D)
VoteView 35.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 71-29
Obama margin 59-39
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. McGovern has raised $624K and spent $350K
District: MA-04
Location Runs from New Bedford, on the coast, northwest and then northeast to Brookline and Newton, suburbs of Boston map
Cook PVI D + 14
Representative Barney Frank (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 27
First elected 1980
2008 margin 68-25 over Earl Sholley
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 78-22 (against an independent)
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 33-65
Current opponents Earl Sholley
Demographics 70th highest income (median = $55K), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), 55th most Democratic per Cook
Assessment Safe. Frank has raised well over a million, and spent most of it. Sholley has raised little.
District: MA-05
Location Northern MA, bordering NH, including Lowell and Lawrence map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Niki Tsongas (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 93
First elected 2007
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 41-57
Current opponents William Bunker, Jon Golnik, Sam Meas
Demographics 64th fewest Blacks (1.9%)
Assessment Safe. Although Tsongas hasn't formally filed, she has raised over half a million and spent $341K. Both Repubs have raised little.
District: MA-06
Location The northeast corner of MA, bordering NH and the Atlantic, including Lynn, Salem, and Gloucester. map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative John Tierney (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 32.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 70-30 over Richard Baker
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin 70-30
Obama margin 59-41
Bush margin 2004 41-58
Current opponents Bill Hudak Jr, Dave Sukoff.
Demographics 50th highest income (median = $58K), 71st fewest Blacks (1.9%), 12th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Tierney has raised about $300K and spent half. Hudak has raised a quarter million and spent $148K. Sukoff has raised little.
District: MA-07
Location Northern and western suburbs of Boston map
Cook PVI D + 15
Representative Edward Markey (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 30.5
First elected 1976
2008 margin 76-24 over John Cunningham
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 74-22
Obama margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 33-66
Current opponents Gerry Dembrowski
Demographics 55th highest income (median = $56K), 54th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Although Markey hasn't formally declared, he has raised $771K and spent $490K. No info on Dembrowski.
District: MA-08
Location Part of Boston, plus Cambridge, Somerville, and Chelsea map
Cook PVI D + 32
Representative Michael Capuano (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 30.5
First elected 1998
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 91-9 (the 9 went to a Socialist)
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 86-14
Bush margin 2004 19-79
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 13th fewest veterans (5.5%), 50th lowest income (median = $39K), 88th fewest Whites (48.9%), 18th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Although Capuano has not formally filed, he has raised over $3 million and spent over $4 million
District: MA-09
Location Part of Boston, plus southern suburbs including Braintree and Brockton map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative Stephen Lynch (D)
VoteView 142
First elected 2001
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 78-22
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 61-39
Bush margin 2004 36-63
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 60th highest income (median = $55K), 70th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Lynch has raised $390K and spent most of it.
District: MA-10
Location Eastern MA, including Cape Cod and Nantucket, bordering the Atlantic, including Quincy and Hyannis map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Bill Delahunt (D)
VoteView 39.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 64-29
2004 margin 66-34
Obama margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 43-56
Current opponents Michael Jones
Demographics 32nd fewest people in poverty (5.9%), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%) and 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment If there is a vulnerable Dem. in MA, it looks like Delahunt but still pretty safe. Delahunt has raised $193K and spent much more. No info on Jones.
District: MI-01
Location The UP of MI, and the northern most part of the lower part map.
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative Bart Stupak (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 160.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 65-35 over Tom Casperson
2006 margin 69-28
2004 margin 53-46
Obama margin 50-48
Bush margin 2004 52-45
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 5th most rural (66.6%), 24th most veterans (16.9%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 30th fewest Blacks (1.0%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Fairly safe; this is a swing district, Stupak seems to fit it. If no one runs, of course, he's safe. Stupak has raised almost half a million and spent $318K.
District: MI-02
Cook PVI R + 7
Location Western MI, bordering Lake Michigan map.
Representative Pete Hoekstra (R) Retiring
VoteView 359
First elected 1992
2008 margin 62-35 over Fred Johnson
2006 margin 66-32
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents One Democrat: Fred Johnson , at least 4 Republicans: Bill Huizenga, Wayne Kuipers, Jay Riemerma, Bill Cooper
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment This is a fairly Republican district, but it's open. The right candidate has a chance. Johnson has raised little, for the Republican totals, see the website.
District: MI-03
Location A bit to the southwest of the center of the state, including Grand Rapids map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Vernon Ehlers (R) Retiring!
VoteView 268
First elected 1993
2008 margin 61-35 over Henry Sanchez
2006 margin 63-35
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 49-49
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Obama ran even here. Now that Ehlers is out .... who knows?
District: MI-04
Location Central MI map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Dave Camp (R)
VoteView 327
First elected 1996
2008 margin 62-36 over Andrew Concannon
2006 margin 61-38
2004 margin 64-38
Obama margin 50-48
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents
Demographics 20th most rural (58.6%)
Assessment Camp seems popular, and the district is moving to the Democrats. Camp has raised over a million and spent about half that.
District: MI-05
Location Flint and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative Dale Kildee (D)
VoteView 149
First elected 1976
2008 margin 70-27 over Matt Sawicki
2006 margin 73-25
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents Rick Wilson and a libertarian
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Kildee has raised a quarter million and spent $116K; Wilson has raised little.
District: MI-06
Location Southwestern MI, bordering IN and Lake Michigan map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Frederick Upton (R)
VoteView 283
First elected 1986
2008 margin 59-39 over Don Cooney
2006 margin 61-38
2004 margin 65-32
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 82nd most rural (41.7%)
Assessment Upton, a relatively moderate Republican, seems popular, but, again, the district is moving to the Democrats; with the right opponent, who knows?. Upton has raised 3/4 million and spent $391K
District: MI-07
Location Central part of southern MI, bordering IN and OH, including Battle Creek map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Mark Schauer (D) Not confirmed
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 49-46 over Tim Wahlberg
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents Tim Wahlberg, Brian Rooney, Marvin Carlson.
Demographics 68th most rural (46%)
Assessment Vulnerable. Crisitunity ranks it the 14th most vulnerable Democratic seat.
District: MI-08
Location Lansing and surrounding area map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Mike Rogers (R) May run for governor
VoteView 335
First elected 2000
2008 margin 56-40 over Robert Alexander
2006 margin 55-43
2004 margin 61-37
Obama margin 53-46
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Another increasingly D district, and, if Rogers retires, it's possible. Rogers has raised $830K and spent $255K.
District: MI-09
Location Northern and western suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Gary Peters (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-43 over Joe Knollenberg
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents Paul Welday, Andrew Raczkowski, Gene Talierico, Gene Goodman.
Demographics 23rd highest income (median = $65K), 26th fewest in poverty (5.4%), 88th most veterans (10.6%)
Assessment Peters ousted Knollenberg, so he should be OK, but it's not totally safe. Peters has raised $1.5 million and spent $237K. Welday has raised $320K and spent little, Goodman has raised $250K and spent little; Raczkowski has raised $240K and spent most of it.
District: MI-10
Location Eastern MI, bordering Canada and Lake Huron map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Candice Miller (R) May run for governor
VoteView 284
First elected 2002
2008 margin 66-31 over Robert Dennison
2006 margin 66-31
2004 margin 69-30
Obama margin
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 35th fewest in poverty (6%), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)
Assessment long shot, unless Miller retires. Miller has raised $400K and spent $163K
District: MI-11
Location Far western suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Thaddeus McCotter (R)
VoteView 285
First elected 2002
2008 margin 51-45 over Joseph Larkin
2006 margin 54-43
2004 margin 57-41
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents Natalie Mosher
Demographics 37th highest income (median = $59K), 12th fewest in poverty (4.3%)
Assessment McCotter may be beatable; the district is moving to the Democrats. McCotter has raised $755K and spent $351K. Mosher has raised $118K and spent $69K
District: MI-12
Location Northern suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative Sander Levin (D)
VoteView 166
First elected 1982
2008 margin 72-24 over Bert Coppie
2006 margin 70-26
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 65-33
Bush margin 2004 39-61
Current opponents A primary and then Jason McClanahan.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Levin has raised $716K and spent $380K. No info on McClanahan
District: MI-13
Location Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 31
Representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D)
VoteView 62.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 74-19 over Edward Gubicks
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 78-18
Obama margin 84-16
Bush margin 2004 19-81
Current opponents There's a primary, but no Republicans have declared
Demographics 37th lowest income (median = $31K), 19th most in poverty (24.4%), 9th most Blacks (60.5%), 41st fewest Whites (28.9%), 18th most Democratic
Assessment safe. Kilpatrick has raised $300K and spent $236K
District: MI-14
Location Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 34
Representative John Conyers (D)
VoteView 25.5
First elected 1964
2008 margin 92-4 over minor party candidates
2006 margin 85-15
2004 margin 84-16
Obama margin 87-12
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 50th fewest Whites (32.1%), 35th lowest income (median = $36K), 17th most Blacks (61.1%), 18th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Conyers has raised $619K and spent $519K
District: MI-15
Location Southern suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative John Dingell (D)
VoteView 115.5
First elected 1955 (longest serving House member)
2008 margin 71-25 over John Lynch
2006 margin 88% against minor parties
2004 margin 71-27
Obama margin 66-32
Bush margin 2004 38-62
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Dingell has raised $390K and spent much more.