It's time for the Oscars! In the tradition of Nate Silver, I'm throwing together some predictions for how tonight's 82nd Academy Awards will go down. I'm also throwing in a little bit of analysis for my picks for the Big 6: Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Director, and of course, Best Picture.
You may use this diary as an open thread for making some predictions of your own. In fact, you can go to this handy list to check out the nominees, and copy and paste it here if need be.
Note: My picks are in bold. Also, these picks do not reflect whether or not I think they are the "best" or "right" selections. They only reflect what I think will take home the trophy.
Actress in a supporting role
Mo'Nique in Precious
Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air
Penélope Cruz in Nine
Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart
I'd say Mo'Nique is a safe bet. She took the Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA, and Critics Choice Awards for Best Actress in a Supporting Role.
Actor in a supporting role
Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds
Christopher Plummer in The Last Station
Matt Damon in Invictus
Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones
Woody Harrelson in The Messenger
This one is an absolute lock. If you look at his IMDB profile, Waltz has won Best Supporting Actor for his performance in "Inglourious Basterds" at least 25 times, including the Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA. If you were a betting person, I'd put money on this right now. That is, if betting were legal.
Actress in a leading role
Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia
Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
Helen Mirren in The Last Station
Gabourey Sidibe in Precious
Carey Mulligan in An Education
I think the actress who will give Bullock a run for her money in this category is Mulligan, who won the BAFTA Award for her performance in "An Education." But, Bullock still took home the SAG and Golden Globe, so I give her the slight nod. I'm not thrown off by the fact that Bullock won a Razzie for her performance in "All About Steve." I'm just not.
Actor in a leading role
Morgan Freeman in Invictus
Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
George Clooney in Up in the Air
Colin Firth in A Single Man
Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker
Bridges took the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice Award for this category. I think his biggest competition is Firth, who took the BAFTA. However, I give Bridges the nod because this is his 5th nomination and he's still looking for his first win. Of course, if the legendary actor Peter O'Toole can be nominated 8 times and not win it once, then anything's possible.
Directing
Avatar (James Cameron)
The Hurt Locker (Kathryn Bigelow)
Inglourious Basterds (Quentin Tarantino)
Up in the Air (Jason Reitman)
Precious (Lee Daniels)
Cameron won the Golden Globe, but Bigelow won the BAFTA and Directors Guild Awards. Plus, Cameron has already taken the Oscar for this category once before for "Titanic," and we know how the Academy likes to spread the love around as the years go by. I'd say Bigelow's the favorite.
And now, for the big one.....
Best picture
Avatar (James Cameron and Jon Landau, producers)
District 9 (Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, producers)
An Education (Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, producers)
The Hurt Locker (Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicolas Chartier and Greg Shapiro, producers)
Inglourious Basterds (Lawrence Bender, producer)
Precious (Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, producers)
A Serious Man (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, producers)
Up in the Air (Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, producers)
The Blind Side (Gil Netter, Andrew A Kosove and Broderick Johnson, producers)
Up (Jonas Rivera, producer)
I have no idea how I feel about the Academy picking 10 films to be nominated for Best Picture. On the one hand, I think it's a shame that lots of good films in years' past didn't get nominated for Best Picture simply because the field of nominees typically included just 5. But on the other hand, at least now there are some great films that are awarded the honor of a nomination that wouldn't have otherwise, including "District 9" and "Inglourious Basterds" (although I personally doubt either of those two movies have much of a chance at winning this category).
I personally loved "Avatar," and though I had my problems with it (mostly involving the script and dialogue), I wouldn't mind seeing it take the Oscar for Best Picture. That said, I think this year will belong to "The Hurt Locker," which won the BAFTA, Critics Choice, and Directors Guild Awards. "Avatar" is most certainly its closest competition, having won the Golden Globe.
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Now, for my picks in all the rest of the categories.
Animated feature film
Up (Pete Docter and Bob Peterson)
The Princess and the Frog (Ron Clements and John Musker)
Coraline (Henry Selick)
Fantastic Mr Fox (Wes Anderson)
The Secret of Kells (Tomm Moore)
Foreign language film
Ajami (Scandar Copti and Yaron Shani, Israel)
A Prophet (Jacques Audiard, France)
The Secret of Her Eyes (Juan Jose Campanella, Argentina)
The White Ribbon (Michael Haneke, Germany)
The Milk of Sorrow (Claudia Llosa, Peru)
Writing (adapted screenplay)
District 9 (Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell)
An Education (Nick Hornby)
Precious (Geoffrey Fletcher)
Up in the Air (Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner)
In the Loop (Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci and Tony Roche)
Writing (original screenplay)
The Hurt Locker (Mark Boal)
Inglourious Basterds (Quentin Tarantino)
A Serious Man (Joel and Ethan Coen)
Up (Pete Docter and Bob Petersen)
The Messenger (Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman)
Art direction
Avatar (art direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg; set decoration: Kim Sinclair)
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (art direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro; set decoration: Caroline Smith)
Nine (art direction: John Myhre; set decoration: Gordon Sim)
Sherlock Holmes (art direction: Sarah Greenwood; set decoration: Katie Spencer)
The Young Victoria (art direction: Patrice Vermette; set decoration: Maggie Gray)
Cinematography
Avatar (Mauro Fiore)
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Bruno Delbonnel)
The Hurt Locker (Barry Ackroyd)
Inglourious Basterds (Robert Richardson)
The White Ribbon (Christian Berger)
Costume design
Bright Star (Janet Patterson)
Coco Before Chanel (Catherine Leterrier)
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (Monique Prudhomme)
Nine (Colleen Atwood)
The Young Victoria (Sandy Powell)
Documentary (feature)
Burma VJ (Anders Østergaard and Lise Lense-Møller)
The Cove (Louie Psihoyos and Fisher Stevens)
Food, Inc (Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein)
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers (Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith)
Which Way Home (Rebecca Cammisa)
Documentary (short subject)
China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province (Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill)
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner (Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher)
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert)
Music by Prudence (Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett)
Rabbit à la Berlin (Bartek Konopka and Anna Wydra)
Film editing
Avatar (Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron)
District 9 (Julian Clarke)
The Hurt Locker (Bob Murawski and Chris Innis)
Inglourious Basterds (Sally Menke)
Precious (Joe Klotz)
Makeup
Il Divo (Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano)
The Young Victoria (Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore)
Star Trek (Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow)
Music (original score)
Avatar (James Horner)
Fantastic Mr Fox (Alexandre Desplat)
Up (Michael Giacchino)
The Hurt Locker (Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders)
Sherlock Holmes (Hans Zimmer)
Music (original song)
Almost There, from The Princess and the Frog, by Randy Newman
Down in New Orleans, from The Princess and the Frog, by Randy Newman
Loin de Paname, from Paris 36, by Reinhardt Wagner and Frank Thomas
Take It All, from Nine, by Maury Yeston
The Weary Kind, from Crazy Heart, by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
Short film (animated)
French Roast (Fabrice O Joubert)
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty (Nicky Phelan and Darragh O'Connell)
Logoramam (Nicolas Schmerkin)
The Lady and the Reaper (Javier Recio Gracia)
A Matter of Loaf and Death (Nick Park)
Short film (live action)
The Door (Juanita Wilson and James Flynn)
Instead of Abracadabra (Patrik Eklund and Mathias Fjellström)
Kavi (Gregg Helvey)
Miracle Fish (Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey)
The New Tenants (Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson)
Sound editing
Avatar (Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle)
The Hurt Locker (Paul NJ Ottosson)
Inglourious Basterds (Wylie Stateman)
Star Trek (Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin)
Up (Michael Silvers and Tom Myers)
Sound mixing
Avatar (Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson)
The Hurt Locker (Paul NJ Ottosson and Ray Beckett)
Inglourious Basterds (Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano)
Star Trek (Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson and Peter J Devlin)
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (Greg P Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson)
Visual effects
Avatar (Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R Jones)
District 9 (Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros and Matt Aitken)
Star Trek (Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton)