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Beware the Ides of March! And, while you are doing that, take the time to read the Wrap, which actually (and mercifully, from where I sit and type) ducks back under the 10,000 word limit for the first time in weeks....

THE U.S. SENATE

CA-Sen: Right-Wing Groups Start Crusade to Crush GOP Frontrunner
From the moment he switched from a prospective gubernatorial race to a bid for the U.S. Senate, Tom Campbell has moved to the front of the polls. Clearly, this has the far-right a bit concerned (Campbell has a reputation as a moderate, particularly on social issues). One of their numbers, the folks at NOM (National Organization of Marriage), is taking to the air in order to paint Campbell as insufficiently conservative on the issue of gay marriage.

CO-Sen: PPP Finds Reasonably Open Primaries on Both Sides of Aisle
Both incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet and presumed GOP frontrunner Jane Norton have to be at least a bit concerned about their primaries, if new numbers from PPP are to be believed. Bennet, on the Democratic side, leads former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff by six points (40-34), according to the poll. Meanwhile, Jane Norton clocks in at a thoroughly unimpressive 34%. Her lead over Ken Buck is seventeen points, as he sits at 17%. Buck, however, is somewhat closer to Norton among conservatives, trailing 34-21. They also poll the GOP gubernatorial primary, but the result is so insignificant it does not merit its own spot in the Wrap: Scott McInnis leads 58-8.

NC-Sen: Marshall Poll Shows Big Primary Lead, But High Undecideds
There is something for everyone in a slightly dusty (mid-February) internal poll for Democratic Senate candidate Elaine Marshall, which was recently released by Team Marshall. Marshall's poll shows her with a twenty-six point lead, with 31% of the vote versus 5% for former state legislator Cal Cunningham and 4% for attorney Ken Lewis. Team Marshall will undoubtedly tell you that this means that they have a commanding lead, and neither of their rivals have managed to launch. Ask Team Cunningham and Team Lewis, and they will almost certainly tell you that even in Marshall's own internals, she is not close to sniffing 50% of the vote, despite being a statewide officeholder. Both of these hypothetical analyses are, of course, correct.

PA-Sen: Sometime-GOP Pollster Has Toomey Leading Specter
Here is kind of a peculiar counterweight to the spate of recent polls (by Research 2000 and Quinnipiac) showing Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter leading likely GOP nominee Patrick Toomey. A new poll from Susquehanna Research, a pollster that has worked both for media outlets and GOP candidates in the past, gives Toomey a six point edge (42-36) over Arlen Specter. Interestingly, they did not release a trial heat for a potential Sestak-Toomey showdown.

THE U.S. HOUSE

KY-03: Yarmuth Has 4-Point Edge Among Committed Voters, Says SUSA
Here is a rather strange poll, but one worth reporting, as it concerns a member of the Democratic class of 2006. SurveyUSA, who has been unusually quiet this election season, comes out of hiding to poll the Louisville Mayoral race, and tosses in a strangely-worded question about the electoral viability of John Yarmuth, who has represented KY-03 since 2007. 27% of voters will vote for Yarmuth no matter what, while 23% of voters will vote against him, no matter what. Most, perhaps not surprisingly, are waiting to see who the GOP candidate is. A quintet of Republicans, although arguably none of them are "first-tier" candidates, are vying for the nod.

PA-07: Could Cleared GOP Field Actually Be Blessing in Disguise?
Most folks, myself included, figured that Patrick Meehan, the likely GOP nominee in the open-seat race in the Pennsylvania 7th, caught a break when former TV news anchor Dawn Stensland decided not to make a bid for the GOP nomination. As it turns out, Stensland might have only ruled out a Republican bid for Congress. According to the Philadelphia Daily News, Stensland has not ruled out an Independent bid for Congress. Stensland, who would bring name recognition into the contest, could cause a mountain of troubles for Meehan were she to run to his right (hat tip: DC's Political Report).

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

MI-Gov: Bernero Locks Down AFL-CIO Endorsement
It is hard not to consider Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero the Democratic frontrunner after the news that the AFL-CIO had decided to endorse his candidacy. He had already locked down the UAW. Bernero's leading Democratic challenger is state House Speaker Andy Dillon. The GOP has a multicandidate field, although it seems as if Congressman Peter Hoekstra has moved into the front of that field.

NM-Gov: Is Another Presumptive GOP Frontrunner In Deep Trouble?
Another day, another supposed top-tier Republican candidate looking at the painful prospect of political elimination within his own party. In something of a surprise, Pete Domenici Jr. finished way back in the pack at the state's GOP Convention this weekend. Not only did Domenici falter badly in finishing dead last among the five candidates, he logged a pathetic 4.6% of the vote. His team is dismissing it as a meaningless straw poll, but it has a practical impact--because Domenici scored less than 20% of the convention vote, he must gain twice as many signatures to qualify for the ballot than the two candidates who met that standard--Allan Weh and Susana Martinez.

PA-Gov: Susquehanna Poll--Corbett Leads By Double Digits
The same Susquehanna poll that had Specter trailing Toomey on the Senate side also, perhaps not surprisingly, has the presumed GOP nominee up big on the gubernatorial side. Most polls, to be fair, have Republican state AG Tom Corbett leading his Democratic challengers. Susquehanna, however, has the margins a touch wider, with Corbett up 37-26 over Democratic state Auditor Jack Wagner, and up fifteen (39-24) on Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 07:30 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Have you seen the news that... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Predictor

    former GOP Congressman Joe DioGuardi, father of American Idol judge Kara DioGuardi, is planning to announce that he's running against Kirsten Gillibrand tomorrow?

  •  Corbett's having a small scandal emerge (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Flaming Liberal for Jesus

    Not sure if it will amount to anything, but he's been found out to have taken money from a law firm that is involved with a big investigation he's conducting as AG.

  •  Specter will lose. (2+ / 0-)

    Sestak is our only chance to hold the seat

  •  NC Sen (3+ / 0-)

    That may be the only Republican seat to flip this year. Burr reminds me a lot of Tim Hutchinson, who was the only Republican to lose in 2002.

  •  Here in New Mexico (5+ / 0-)

    ... I'm hoping Allen Weh gets the Republican nomination for governor.  Weh is the guy who got Heather Wilson and Pete Domenici to lean on Karl Rove to fire David Iglesias in the US Attorney firing scandal.

    Heather lost her job, in large part because of that move, and Pete Domenici was pushed into an overdue retirement when the scandal hit.  Let's see Allen Weh try to take statewide office with that anvil tied to his ankle.

    •  Weh is almost as bat-shit crazy as John Dendahl (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dallasdoc, Land of Enchantment

      and he'll have just as little success as Dilhole did.  Pete Dementia, Junior is similarly afflicted with foot-in-mouth disease.  His (in)famous father's name will help him with Rethuglicans, but his inexperience and negative charisma will probably hurt more.

      No candidate had ever been elected in NM without getting at least 20% of the election vote, if only because institutional donors simply won't support them.  Dementia Junior's fundraising will suffer greatly from here on out.  Martinez will get a boost.

      I read the Rethug's convention results to mean that the party regulars think they have the best shot with a woman-woman match-up vs. Diane Denish.  They may well be right.  No matter who the 'thug primary voters choose, we'll have to work our asses off to win.  No race this year will be easy.

      By the way, turnout in this year's NM primary will be even less than usual because it is being held on 1 June, the day after Memorial Day.  Many 4x4 voters won't remember to get to the polls this year.  Candidates would be well advised to focus on a smaller universe of voters who always vote in school bond elections and the like.  They always vote.  (We seem to have another election every other Tuesday here in NM.)

      It's time for Democrats to start using the rules to enact our agenda. Use every trick in the book! Playing nice helps us not at all.

      by NM Ward Chair on Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 08:27:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Heather (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dallasdoc

      At one point there was talk that she would run.  I've lost all track of what she's up to now.

      I have had similar thoughts about Weh.

      Who do you like for Lt. Gov. on the Democratic side?  I've been rather out of touch on that, and am trying to catch up.  Plus hoping the field would winnow itself out a little.  I think I might gather signatures for Campos.  Not wild about Colon.  Don't know anything much about Rael.  I'm hearing that Ortiz y Pino hasn't really been running a very good campaign, and would have lower chances to win.

      Grab all the joy you can. (exmearden, 8/30/09)

      by Land of Enchantment on Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 09:28:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'd love to see some numbers from TX (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pademocrat

    in the gov and sen races... then again, I might need to have sharp objects removed from the room before reading them.

  •  AZ_JD Hayworth Gay Marriage=Horse Marriage (4+ / 0-)

    http://www.azcentral.com/...

    Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-Ariz.) said Sunday that the expansion of state laws allowing gay marriage could lead to people marrying horses.
    Hayworth, during an interview with an Orlando, Fla., radio station explained: "You see, the Massachusetts Supreme Court, when it started this move toward same-sex marriage, actually defined marriage - now get this - it defined marriage as simply, 'the establishment of intimacy.'"

    "I mean, I don't mean to be absurd about it, but I guess I can make the point of absurdity with an absurd point," he continued. "I guess that would mean if you really had affection for your horse, I guess you could marry your horse."

    The former Republican congressman then insisted that the "only way" to prevent men from marrying horses is to create a federal marriage amendment. Hayworth noted that he supports such an amendment.

    The reason we hold truth in such respect is because we have so little opportunity to get familiar with it. --Mark Twain

    by Desert Rose on Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 07:51:03 PM PDT

  •  What what what? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Clarknt67

    One of their numbers, the folks at NOM (National Organization of Marriage), is in order to paint Campbell as insufficiently conservative on the issue of gay marriage.

    He doesn't think gays will be marrying horses then?

  •  Hilarious NOM wants to push the gay marriage (0+ / 0-)

    issue in the primary. Like with a nearly 50/50 split in 2008, that's gonna be a deciding factor in the general. Face it, any candidate with an (R) next to their name is sufficiently anti-gay when compared to the Dem nominee. Fools.

    @AlmightyGod Blasphemy is a victimless crime.

    by Scott Wooledge on Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 07:58:15 PM PDT

  •  I live in Pittsburgh (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pademocrat, NM Ward Chair

    I don't think Sestak will win.. He is virtually unknown in western PA. The last local news poll has Specter over Toomey by 7%. Sestak is not even in the conversation. Specter has the Pittsburgh establishment democrats plus the unions, he always supported organized labor. Granted, the republicans hate him for flipping.. he will need every vote.

  •  Beware the Ides Of March? (0+ / 0-)

    Heck no, I'd rather listen to them.

    Dick Cheney now has a heart attack for each deferment.

    by jazzmaniac on Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 08:01:54 PM PDT

  •  Beware of the many GOP leaning pollsters out (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pademocrat, NM Ward Chair

    There. Many pollsters are still trying to drive the narrative of the dems are dommed forever especially with the health-care bill this close to passage.

  •  Campbell is Bab's biggest threat (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    qwertyuiop

    I mean - even I like Tom Campbell.

    She'll crush Failorina should she get the nomination. Let's hope NOM's campaign succeeds!!

    "The two pioneering forces of modern sensibility are Jewish moral seriousness and homosexual aestheticism and irony." Susan Sontag

    by Shane Hensinger on Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 08:06:40 PM PDT

  •  Crist should build up Meek as a real threat... (0+ / 0-)

    If I was advising Crist, I'd have him attack Meek and draw him into the fight.  Make Meek to be some legit threat - Republicans might be flocking to Rubio because they think the GOP primary winner is a lock.  However if Crist could build up Meek to be a threat to Rubio, Republicans might flock back to Crist as he'd more of a sure thing rather than risk Rubio lose to Meek.  

    Politics is like playing Asteroids - You go far enough to the left and you end up on the right. Or vice-versa.

    by Jonze on Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 08:32:46 PM PDT

  •  The most interesting race in NM... (0+ / 0-)

    ... to my thinking, is the Democratic primary for Lt. Governor.  I think Diane Denish is likely to win the top of the ticket.  She does, after all, run the state much of the time while Richardson's off running for President and other miscellaneous activities.

    Lt. Gov. primary matters, because whomever wins it is likely to be running for Gov. next time around.  Brian Colon and Lawrence Rael met the threshold.

    Friends I trust like Joe Campos better.  And here he was only a hair short of meeting the threshold, gaining 19.69% of the vote at the convention.  I'll probably be collecting signatures for him.  Carlos Trujillo, a great campaign manager (he did Ben Ray Lujan's in 2008) has gone with Campos, and he's got great judgment.  Other friends are supporting him, too, and are disappointed he was so near the threshold but didn't meet it.  

    Jerry Ortiz y Pino says he's staying in, too.  He was also pretty close to the threshold at 18.87%.  It's also said his campaign isn't on the ball like Campos's is.

    Aside from Colon, they're all pretty good progressives.  He's more of an old-time machine guy.

    Grab all the joy you can. (exmearden, 8/30/09)

    by Land of Enchantment on Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 09:23:19 PM PDT

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