There has been a lot made by Republicans recently about the amount of opposition to the health care legislation that has now passed Congress and is set to become law (pending the addition of the reconciliation fixes in the Senate).
Republicans have argued that this is a hugely unpopular bill that "nobody likes."
Polls have tended to show support for the health care reform proposals running in the mid 30's to mid 40's in the polls:
RCP summary of health care polls
However, you have to look a little deeper to see why this really isn't bad news at all for Democrats. A CNN poll out today confirms what Michael Moore speculated during an appearance on the Situation Room last week. Moore told Blitzer that most people wanted reform, and that the reason the polls were so low is that a lot of people opposed the current legislation because IT DID NOT GO FAR ENOUGH IN REFORMING THE SYSTEM. Of course, this is well know to most of us, but the issue is seemingly always reported in the media as 55 % or 60 % of the poll respondents being opposed to any significant reform.
In typical fashion, Real Clear Politics posted the story about the CNN poll with the headline "59 % oppose final bill." Technically, that may be true. However, the CNN actually did what almost no other poll has done to date, it asked people WHY they oppose the health care bill.
CNN Poll
As you can see, 39 % of respondents support the health care legislation that is set to become law; however another 13 % oppose it because "it is not liberal enough."
So, doing the simple math, 52 % of the people polled either support the legislation, or oppose it because it did not go far enough. Now, how many of those 13 % are likely to turn around and vote for Republicans, who not only don't want to do anything further, but actually want to repeal what was done in the first place? The greater risk, of course, is that of that 13 %, many will feel the Democrats let them down somewhat, and they will not turn out to vote in November. The best way for Democrats to counter that lack of enthusiasm is to show their base they are serious about taking these initial reform steps further in the coming months, with additional efforts to add progressive elements to the law that got lost in the process of getting this historic legislation passed.
Further, of the remaining 48 %, a large portion of these people are right wingers who will never be swayed. But there are many who will likely warm to the legislation when they see the world isn't ending, and in fact for many of them benefits from HCR will be realized by the fall.
That is why I think overall the passage of HCR legislation will be a significant positive for Democrats, even as early as the elections this fall.