As I've published repeatedly and it has been documented elsewhere, Justice Stevens is set to retire as early as this month. This has been no surprise to the Obama administration. There have been reports of vetting candidates since January. In fact, it would be political malfeasance had there been none.
But Obama's going to have to make a decision as to what he wants done before the midterms. Whether he wants Energy and Immigration Reform or he wants a fight for the Supreme Court. Because, as democrats in the hill are warning, a fight on one would displace the other.
Stevens' Successor or Immigration and Energy?
It's possible for him to do both. There's literally no question that is. However, should Obama do that, and go the safe route that could dampen liberal turnout in November but may allow him to get both done.
Still, what is being contemplated, as names are getting leaked to the press is that Obama may swing for the fences and appoint a liberal to the court. Perhaps, Goodwin Liu, Pamela Karlan, or Harold Koh.
The White House’s aggressive drive to recalibrate its message and emphasize the issues it thinks will resonate best with voters could be upended if — as is widely expected — John Paul Stevens, the Supreme Court’s senior justice, decides it is time to retire.
The retirement of the court’s 89-year-old liberal stalwart would confront President Barack Obama with a difficult and highly partisan confirmation battle that could drag on for months at a time when the White House wants to focus on selling the administration’s historic health care legislation and efforts to turn around the economy.
Facing a markedly different political landscape than last spring, when David Souter’s retirement provided the first chance to put a Democrat on the court since 1994, Obama will likely decide on a successor to Stevens based on a calculation of how contentious a confirmation fight he wants to have, and whether it would help mobilize his party’s liberal base for the mid-term election in November.
Should the administration choose an outright liberal, they may have to put on pause the rest of the agenda. As was evident during the Sotomayor hearings, Senators and Congressmen can truly only do one thing at a time. This would be detrimental to Energy and Immigration Reform (which would still be possible, post Republican gains, would be shifted more to the right).
Hence we hear how the President's likely to choose someone like Diane Wood or Elena Kagan or Merrick Garland or a politician, like Jennifer Granholm.
The question is what should Obama do?