Tick-tock, tick-tock.
The ticking clock was a suspense writer's staple long before it became a right-wing talking point from the Fox series 24. Whether a crime-fighter rushing to defuse a bomb or a fictional athlete straining to reach the end zone, the characters' and audience's awareness that time is running out and This Is The Last Chance heightens the suspense.
But while most scientists agree the clock is ticking down on climate change, both governments and many people behave as if we have all the time in the world. Why is it so difficult to sell the need?
More below the fold....
Selling the Need, Part I - Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock
This week Morning Feature looks at suspense techniques that "sell the need" for a solution, whether in a story or in political advocacy. Today we look at the common suspense device of the ticking clock. Tomorrow we examine another common device, the villain in the closet. Saturday we conclude with the common suspense flaw of writing into a corner that leaves no plausible solution.
The ticking clock became a right-wing talking point in favor of torture from the Fox series 24. Elected officials cited the ticking time bomb as a justification for torture so often you would have thought time bombs - rather than suicide bombers, vehicle bombs, or remotely-triggered IEDs - were the weapons of choice for terrorists. As Georgetown University law professor David Luban wrote:
The ticking time bomb is proffered against liberals who believe in an absolute pro-hibition against torture. The idea is to force the liberal prohibition-ist to admit that yes, even he or even she would agree to torture in at least this one situation. Once the prohibitionist admits that, then she has conceded that her opposition to torture is not based on principle. Now that the prohibitionist has admitted that her moral principles can be breached, all that is left is haggling about the price.
As an argument for torture, the ticking clock is an ugly fiction. It presumes the officials know that the bomb exists, that the person they have in custody knows its location, and that if tortured he will reveal its location in time for them to act. The likelihood that all three of these conditions would ever be met is so remote that the scenario should be dismissed for the rhetorical trap it is. Yet the ticking clock is such an ubiquitous fictional device that the scenario seemed plausible to many Americans.
Tick-tock here, tick-tock there.
Explicit examples of the ticking time bomb are plenty, but the ticking clock is not limited to that scenario. The hero may be trying to solve a murder before an innocent man is executed, to stop some other crime that will happen at a specific time, urging people to heed warnings before a natural disaster strikes, to negotiate a solution before a war breaks out, to get a lover to the hospital before she gives birth, to rescue a hostage before he/she is killed, to beat a deadline with a news story, or to make the winning score before the big game ends.
While the most common resource of the ticking clock device is time, it can also be used with other resources: the last bullet in the gun, the last few chips in a big poker game, the last reserve in a battle, the last rescue flare, or the last teenager alive at Camp Slasher.
Writers use the device because it works. Give the characters unlimited time and resources to solve the problem and the audience has less reason to care about any particular attempt. Sooner or later the characters will trip over a solution. But add a well-built ticking clock and they must rise to the moment - in that moment - or fail.
Building a suspense clock.
A well-built ticking clock has two essential components, both of which must be met in order to "sell the need." The first is the timer: a visible clock, an event certain to happen at a known time, or a visibly diminishing resource ... bullets in the gun, chips in the game, reserves in the battle, rescue flares, or teenagers bumping about Camp Slasher. The characters, and especially the audience, must know the clock is running out and how much time is left.
The second is the consequence of failure: the bomb explodes, the innocent man is executed, the disaster strikes, the war breaks out, the lover must give birth in the car, the hostage is killed, the deadline is missed, the team loses. While many of those consequences are self-evident, in other cases the characters and audience must be told how bad the consequences would be. Thus the stock scene where someone explains that the bomb's blast radius and projected casualties, how much of the city will be flooded, or what will happen if the reporter misses his/her deadline.
If the characters and audience can't see the clock ticking down, or don't know what the consequences will be, the ticking clock doesn't work as well to "sell the need." While a skilled fiction writer can always make sure the characters and audience see the clock and know the consequences, that's not always as true for real world problems.
Case in point: the climate clock.
The scientific consensus on climate change is very strong. Human activity is adding to the buildup of greenhouse gases, trapping more solar energy and warming the planet. That melts glaciers and ice caps, increasing the volume and decreasing the salinity of oceans. It also increases mean sea and air temperatures, fueling more powerful storms. Rising temperatures mean greater desertification in dry areas, thus less plants to scrub CO2 out of the air. Thawing tundra and warmed sea floors may release trapped methane, accelerating the process.
Scientists project a tipping point where the earth's natural energy transfer mechanisms can no longer keep up, resulting in a dramatic and perhaps comparatively sudden climate shift. Sea levels rise, flooding many coastal areas. Some readily human habitable areas will become barely habitable or even uninhabitable. Lakes, wells, and even rivers dry up. Crops fail. Mass migrations happen on a scale never seen before in human history, as tens of millions or even billions look for new homes, both driven by and triggering famine, disease, and violence.
But when, and where, and by how much?
Those are the questions on which the scientific consensus breaks down. Scientists agree the clock is ticking, and on the broad strokes of likely consequences. But as to how much time we have left - or indeed whether we've already passed the tipping point - or what will change where and by how much ... the systems is so complex that scientists admit they can't make precise, specific predictions.
That's a problem for "selling the need" with a ticking clock, and one reason the impulse for change hasn't yet overcome political and popular inertia toward a Manhattan Project for green, sustainable energy. There are other reasons for that inertia: a recession that has many focused on short term goals, as well as industries, institutions, and attitudes that prosper - at least for now - under the status quo.
Many are content to muddle along thinking we humans will sort it out somehow, before, during, or after whatever happens. Maybe we will. Or maybe - more likely, scientists suggest - the clock will run out before we know it and the consequences will be more dire than we dare imagine.
Fortunately, as we'll see tomorrow the ticking clock is not the only suspense device available. There's a better way to "sell the need" on climate change.
+++++
Happy Thursday!