I have been following the developments in news regarding the oil spill quite closely and two new news articles have me really worried that we may be facing an environmental disaster of epic proportions.
These articles indicate that we may have 25000 barrels/day spilling with up to 3-8 months required to stop the spill and it appears the spill may NOT be typical 'South Louisiana Crude' that is easy to disperse and evaporates/biodegrades relatively quickly but may be heavy crude with a high content of ashphaltenes.
If both of these are true, we are in for an epic disaster.
From the WSJ article:
Ian MacDonald, professor of oceanography at Florida State University who specializes in tracking ocean oil seeps from satellite imagery, said there may already be more than 9 million gallons of oil floating in the Gulf now, based on his estimate of a 25,000 barrel-a-day leak rate. That's compared to 12 million gallons spilled in the Valdez accident.
Interior Department officials said it may take 90 days to cap the leaking well. If the 25,000 barrels a day is accurate and it leaks for 90 days, that's 2.25 million barrels or 94.5 million gallons.
Mr. MacDonald and his colleagues at the Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science Department have worked jointly with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the past on oil spill tracking, and have shared their estimates with NOAA scientists. He said the NOAA scientists didn't dispute the calculations.
So this article quotes two independent oil slick estimation experts who indicate that it is likely 20-25 thousand barrels/day spilling into the gulf.
The second article which makes the hair stand up on the back of your neck is from NOLA.com, some quotes:
"We’ve got to confirm this with more samples, but if this is the case, we’ve got a roofing tar spill, not a South Louisiana crude spill," said Ed Overton, an LSU professor and one of the state’s experts on oil spills.
"South Louisiana crude is the easier type to clean up and contain. This other stuff would be a whole different ball game. A much tougher ball game. This stuff is harder to treat, especially after it comes ashore."
....
Overton said what he saw was a much heavier crude with less than 2 percent volatile aromatics, and more than 50 percent asphaltenes.
....
"It will stick to our grasses along the edges of the marsh and will be very difficult to get off, and last a very long time," said Overton. "Those grassy edges are some of the real keys to this habitat that drives these incredible estuaries.
In the article the LSU prof admits this is based on just the first sample he has received and many more samples will need to be taken. The ashphaltenes are polyaromatic hydrocarbons which absorb light and give crude oil it's dark color. It's possible this sample was taken from the reddish fingers of oil that were first hitting shore and represent what gets left over after you have evaporated most of the light weight hydrocarbons. But if this sample was from the thick layer at the heart of the spill we are looking at a world of trouble.
Regardless, the volume of the spill appears to be much larger that suggested even yesterday and the content may be worse than we thought.
I'll add one positive thing I read at the BBC:
But Clifford Jones, an oil and gas engineering specialist from the UK's Aberdeen University, suggests it should not be considered in the same category as the Exxon Valdez spill of 1989, with which it is regularly being compared.
It is a threat to the ecosystem, he allows: but "Exxon Valdez was a supertanker holding 11 million barrels, and exit of oil from it was simply by gravity.
"Whereas this current incident involves a well that's under the sea, and at most about four million barrels will have leaked out before the pressure within the well drops sufficiently for there to be no further discharge."
There is hope that it will stop releasing oil on it's own once several million barrels have escaped. SO, depending on the volume and pressure of the oil deposit, it may stop actively flowing by itself at some point.
UPDATE:
H/T Fishgrease: For a really scary article about possible near future developments for this leak
read this article from AL.com which describes the possibility of losing any containment of the well through sand erosion.