Democrates Heath Shuler (NC-11) and Larry Kissel (NC-08) both survived primary challenges by much narrower than expected margins. In NC-11, sophmore Shuler (who, from the pillar of my own perpsective, did not bother to run), is winning 61-38 against unknown challenger Aixa Wilson. In NC-08,freshman Kissell is winning 62-37 against another unknown, poet and high school teacher Nancy Shakir.
Neither of these were supposed to be contested races. Kissell is winning 23K - 14K with about 2/3 of the votes in. Shuler is winning 23K - 15K at the same point. If we had cranked turnout in Buncombe County (about 61,000 Democratic votes cast in 2008), it would have made the difference in my home country, out of the 13 in the district. I grew up in the 8th, but I'm out of touch there now, so let me tell you about the 11th...
Asheville is the only urban area in the district, ~70,000 in town, ~220,000 in the country, roughly a third of the district. Right now, Shuler is LOSING 52%-47% in Buncombe (7,163 -6533). That 600 votes is overmatched by lopsided victories in several of the red counties of the districts.
But I do believe a signal has been sent. The Base Is NOT HAPPY. Conservadems may have been the way to go in a purple district in the past, but it will be difficult to continue to win in the 11th without strong Democratic support in Asheville. And Heath Shuler, by refusing to vote along with our president on key legislation, has Lost The Base.
Make no mistake. Losing 40% to a no-name, who never hit the airwaves, will have quite a few potential challengers weighing their chances for 2012. Shuler, widely regarded as able to out-think a wet paper bag in two falls out of three, is vulnerable to a well funded, progressive challenger.
So, bring it on. Heath may be a good fit for the district, but he's not a good fit for me and my friends. We've got some serious support for his challenger in 2013. Best,
-Paleo