Forget about cable clowns, faux news nutjobs or corporate shills posing as pundits. Let's start with someone authoritative talking to a professional journalist. I give you United States Coast Guard Rear Admiral Landry's statement to CBS's Henry Smith on April 23rd, several days after the rig blew up:
Landry: At this time, there is no crude emanating from that well-head... or the riser, either.
Henry Smith: Wow.
Of course that was not true... and they wonder why we have grown jaded and cynical. Fortunately, we don't need to rely on spokesmen to get raw data. Unfortunately, the pictures from NASA and NOAA have a sickening familiarity.
The pictures go from bad:
To worse:
As the witch's brew continues to spread, it is no surprise we are seeing this:
Followed by this:
Followed by this:
And inevitably, this:
These animals are merely sentinels of catastrophe to come. The only question now is how much destruction will follow. In the face of this it seems almost petty to wonder who, if anyone, will wind up being held to account for this. If history is any guide, we know the answer -- no one.
The guilty parties will hide behind the corporate veil and a compliant congress will not seek them out. Insulated by a phalanx of high-priced lawyers, the guilty parties will pay pennies on the dollar to settle "legitimate" claims. Just like Iraq, Katrina, and Wall Street, the destruction of our coastline and ocean habitats will be publicly lamented by the very people who make a killing by promoting the practices that brought this catastrophe upon us.
The deaths, disease and dislocation this will generate for decades to come will be treated as "isolated incidents" so the true cost will never have to be confronted. But those of us who watch and remember what life was like before the reefs died must be forgiven for losing our faith in those who claimed to have our best interests at heart.
The trillion dollar question is whether this will spread to the Gulf Stream or not. For that to happen, it has to get picked up by the Loop Current. At the moment, that is not likely to happen. However, the currents and winds will change in June and by July it is almost certain the spill will feed into the Loop Current.
Here is a statistical analysis of recorded Gulf Currents published in 2008. It used data collected from 1980-2002. The data shows the clear seasonal changes in currents along the Northern Gulf of Mexico.
Here are the relevant vector plots at 1/12 degree resolution. Focus on the arrow lengths and directions to see where the current flows. The "x" is the approximate location of Mississippi Canyon Block 252 (the location of the Deepwater Horizon platform).
On average, the currents in April and May flow towards to the north and west. This is bad for the Louisiana coastline and is consistent with what we are seeing right now.
However, in the summer this will change and the currents will head towards the east and south. That is good for the coast -- of Louisiana. Unfortunately, that is not good for the coast of Florida. In fact, it is downright ominous.
This is the average picture for June:
Here is the NOAA composite Loop Current (in white) for July August and Sept. Comparing these last two charts, there is obvious cause for concern. A warmer than average summer and the loop current will move a bit further north.
Don't be fooled into thinking that once (if) the well is capped, the problem is solved. All the oil that has gushed out still needs to be dealt with. That oil and those currents are going to meet sooner or later. I expect oil to be washing up on the shores of Florida during hurricane season.
When I was young, I remember how vibrant the reefs were along the coast where I grew up. You could catch lobsters for dinner with no problem. Now those reefs are a dismal gray and littered with fragments of dead coral. The invertebrates that couldn't move away were the first to go. The brightly colored fish that used to swim all around you have become increasingly scarce. In some areas, they've disappeared altogether. That was before this calamity. As the water gets warmer, more acidic, and more polluted, I can't help but wonder who will be the last to go -- and how far we'll be behind them.