Tom Schaller at 538 posts the first part of a two-part summary of his phone interview with Newt Gingrich last Monday before the recent primaries titled Gingrich Sounds Amped to Run. In fact, Schaller quickly lets drop his own opinion that Gingrich will run and says he will state his reasons why with his second installment.
But reading Gingrich's comments, it sure sounds as if, at least now, he is giving very serious consideration to the idea. Some of those thoughts below the fold:
Asked by Schaller if he will run he responds:
Calista and I will make a global decision probably in February or March. We are methodically trying to think through what we’re going to do. We run four small companies and we have a lot of other activities. So we’re taking steps so that if we do decide to run everything will be in order.
And he adds some of the reasons why he seems inclined in that direction:
And I have to say that the failure of the Obama Administration in practical, real terms—jobs, terrorism and other issues—and the radicalism of the Obama Administration, I think make both me and Calista more inclined to say, “Yea, looking at it in the context of what is our duty as citizens, how do we live that out?”
Asked what he sees as the key themes of a campaign against the Obama administration
I think the three key questions we have to discuss in the next three years are: What kind of people are we, what do we have to do to compete with China and India successfully, and what threatens us and what do we have to do to be safe? And I think those three things are the core, big decision points that America’s faced with that we all have to have the courage to talk though.
But then comes one of those fascinating little wrinkles caused by the passage of time. Remember the interview was done before Tuesday's primaries with Specter getting beaten, Critz winning the special for Murtha's seat in PA and the special Congressional election in Hawaii that went to the GOP because of a temporary Democratic split of an otherwise strong Democratic majority in the district (a situation which clearly seems headed for a reversal in the regular election this fall.)
And on the eve of the voting, Newt tells Schaller:
The real test for Republicans will be if we win in 2012 and fail to deliver. I think at that point you'd see some movement toward a third party. But I believe in 2012 virtually everybody who does not want a secular-socialist future is going to be unified behind beating Obama.
And note that Newt, the supposed GOP intellectual, somehow sees the easy to predict GOP victory then upcoming in Hawaii as some sort of bellwether.....Newt and the APrather suddenly makes his crystal ball gazing a tad weak.
Reading a GOP win in Hawaii last Tuesday as a sign of a coming Republican tsunami isn't going to burnish Newt's reputation as a heavy thinker. I'd love to hear what he now has to say about how badly Rand Paul has performed out of the gate after his KY win.
Newt's obvious desire is to be seen at least as a potential candidate for the party nomination. That keeps him on the list of return invitees (by the always liberal media) to appear on MTP and more importantly as a speaker (for big fees) at party functions. But that's the real question.
Mr. Gingrich has a lovely little money machine going and may well be thinking that in the long run he keeps it stoked by keeping visible, without ever actually going for the prize.
What do you think?