That poblano blogger's gone far in the world. In late 2007, Nate Silver took some time away from Baseball Prospectus to break down polls on this very site. That led him to start FiveThirtyEight where his analysis of polling led to some of the most accurate forecasts of the 2008 primaries and general election. The site continues to generate some of the most thoughtful analysis of polling data around.
The New York Times has noticed. Today, Nate and the Times announced a three-year licensing deal in which FiveThirtyEight moves to the newspaper's site. Nate will also contribute to the print and Sunday magazine editions. This will all start in about ten to twelve weeks.
Nate explains the move:
There are two particular reasons why we felt the Times was the best home for FiveThirtyEight. On the one hand, I very much see what we are doing as a type of journalism, in the sense that it consists of doing original research on a timely basis to help inform the public discourse. Thus, the Times' unflinching commitment to quality journalism makes for a natural fit, and I expect that the relationship will evolve in exciting ways as FiveThirtyEight is incorporated into a "traditional" newsroom setting. On the other hand, the terrific work of their graphic and interactive journalists was a major draw. The new blog should look and feel great, and should be substantially more robust and feature-rich than the simple, one-page design that we have now.
Bill Keller's take on the deal:
"Nate won considerable recognition during the 2008 presidential campaign for his timely and prescient reports on the electoral races and on public opinion," Bill Keller, the executive editor of The Times, said in a statement. "We look forward to his unique perspectives on statistics, covering a wide swath of issues relating to politics, culture and sports."
From my point of view, this platform greatly elevates the discussion of polling in the mainstream media. If Nate is allowed to continue doing what he is doing, he should reach an even larger audience than the one he's grown over the past couple of years. It may be wishful thinking on my part, but his work may improve political reporting at both the Times and elsewhere.
Congratulations to Nate Silver, and more importantly to the Times for treating its readers with the respect to add this important resource.