K.I.S.S.:
We have no credible scientific data on subsurface oil movement and degradation performance.
We have inadequate support for competent public policy and private citizen decision making.
Academic publications are tightly drawn. Our wonderful Free Market and Reaganite teabagging have produced:
-- No research on oil or chemical half-lifes and ascent rates for realistic oceanic pressures and temperatures
-- No deep water temperature and flow maps for the Gulf of Mexico
-- No work on wind effects applicable to hurricanes and oil in the water, much less related to storm surges
E.g., normal EC COREXIT 9500A half-life in a South Carolina coastal marsh is claimed to be 30 days. What about for deep water ?
A $50,000,000 project is outlined below-the-fold with three specific, doable objectives.
Getting these research tasks done could be the best $50,000,000 the Obama Adminstration ever gets to spend.
We need scientific data to understand what is happening. MORE BTF :::
In a nutshell:
- Proper research on chemical and oil half-life performance depends on access to max 2,500 PSI research tanks with temperature controls for cooling and time to run full scale testing.
- ASAP create and do open publication of accurate temperature maps for the Gulf of Mexico showing temperatures at 100-meter intervals to the bottom. Maps should also be provided that display flow data for the unstable geostrophic Loop Current with weekly updates. (Rough surface layer maps are published now along with temperature data.)
- Wind effect tests and oil rising measurements to determine the extent to which a hurricane's front-side winds will drive and concentrate oil and/or "dispersants" at the surface layer.
Without these three research efforts, there is no way to do competent assessments for the immediate effects and likely aftermath problems for a strong hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. American citizens cannot be properly warned and protected.
Testing half-life requires using max 2,500 PSI pressure chambers with cooling. One possibility is that running these tests will show minimal-to-no degradation at deep water conditions. (That's what we're getting from our first efforts.) Interaction between COREXIT and crude oil needs to be determined by pressure, temperature, and concentration levels.
Once you get these data, you can map over to conditions in the Gulf. When you get the data on temperature-pressure mappings in the Gulf. #1 and # 2 work together, hand in glove.
The measurement work at the Gulf can be handled with three small ships, doing resource allocation with best case projections. Set up concentric circles from the DWH site, then work the grids for each ship's assigned area.
Do measurements for temperature and flow with 5 kilometer nodes and 100-meter increments from the surface -- good enough.
Hit each node on the grid once weekly.
If this takes using 10 ships, so be it. We've got a whole #$(*&^% Navy out there. Use it. This task wouldn't take more than 40-foot cabin cruisers with water production for testing crews to do the job and be reasonably comfortable for the ride. The work could be contracted out and start work within a couple of days. Execution is brain-dead simple once you master using a GPS.
Then for # 3: oil and the "dispersant" chemicals are lighter than water. While the "dispersant" chemicals do dissolve, likely remaining deep below for years, the 40% to 80% of the oil that is not "dispersed" is coming to the surface. Slowly... surely.
A hurricane storm surge drives the top layer of oceanic water ahead of it on its front-side cyclone. Performance for lighter-than-water oil and man-made chemicals is at present a matter of conjecture.
Yes, folks, we're doing tests. But we're tiny. What we need to see is full use of the Carderock facility, Naval Surface Warfare Center in Maryland. This operation has enormous tanks that are used to test naval architecture and weapons. The tanks include wave generation equipment. Surely high winds can be added, if they're not installed already for a particular tank.
Carderock is there to protect America. Let's see it happen. Planning to keep a poisonous storm surge from killing people is one damn fine use for these resources -- none better.
Getting these three research tasks done ASAP is the best $50,000,000 the Obama Adminstration will ever get to spend.
Scientific workers need to know ASAP and accurately what is happening to all that below-500-meter oil. When it will reach surface ? What is likely to happen to it ?
What changes to before- and after-disaster plans will be required at FEMA ?
What areas would be unlivable after a poisonous storm surge ? How would livability do assessed ?
Right now its still America's Chernobyl.
Risk denial. Risk denial. Risk denial. Risk denial. Risk denial. Risk denial. Risk denial. Risk denial. Risk denial. Risk denial. Risk denial. Risk denial. Risk denial. Risk denial. And more risk denial.....
"Please give me my life back." Indeed.
These research efforts can change that attitude immediately. No more denial.