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Tonight will mark the end of the first six months of 2010. Aside from musing in wonderment about time and how it flies and all of that, you might take this opportunity to show some love for those Orange to Blue candidates. You all are so great, of course, that our bar for the day has already been cleared with room to spare. So let's get 4000 contributors total before the clock strikes midnight on the East Coast (we are about 35 away, at last count).

Also, you might want to show some love to any additional candidates you feel are deserving (Tom Perriello and Patrick Murphy will see some of my money personally before the deadline, for example).

For those who hate the campaign cash appeals, there is a bright side. In less than 90 minutes, we'll stop asking. For a while, at least.

On with the Wrap....

THE U.S. SENATE

IL-Sen: Kirk tries to hit Giannoulias, who hits back. Hard.
For fans of aggressive Democratic politicians, this is pretty good to see. As was expected, Mark Kirk followed up his "I'm back" press conference with new ads, one of which resurrected the tired old "mob banker" meme that he had used on Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias in the past. The Democrat hit back today with an ad reminding people of the breadth of Kirk's biographical embellishments. As you can see, it is one hell of a shot.

KY-Sen: Mongiardo rules out 2011 run, 2010 endorsement
Stuff like this just reminds you why Jack Conway was put on the Orange-to-Blue list in the midst of a competitive primary: Conway's vanquished rival in that primary, Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo, has decided that he will not endorse either candidate in the 2010 general election. From the looks of things, though, this does not look like genuine indecision over whether he prefers Rand Paul or Conway. Rather, it looks like a bit of personal pique: Mongiardo noted that he has not heard from Conway since immediately after the primary. Mongiardo also ruled out a 2011 gubernatorial bid, in which he would have been a decided underdog to the ticket of Governor Steve Beshear and his new running mate, Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson.

WV-Sen: Might there be a 2010 special elex, after all?
The semi-definitive word from West Virginia Sec. of State Natalie Tennant this week regarding the special election to replace the late Robert Byrd might not be the final word. There are now rumblings that the concept of a November 2010 special election might not be dead, after all. There are both legal questions (regarding the application of the election laws, something state AG Darrell McGraw is still reviewing) and political questions to consider. Here is a political theory, for example: Democratic Governor Joe Manchin might be a better bet to hold the seat for Democrats now rather than 2012. His approval is sky-high now, with no guarantee that it will remain that way for 30 months. Furthermore, having President Obama at the top of the ticket, even in a good Democratic climate, is not necessarily an asset in West Virginia, given his weak performances there in both the 2008 primary and general elections.

THE U.S. HOUSE

NJ-07: New internal poll implies GOP freshman can be had
From the diaries here at Daily Kos this afternoon came a potentially interesting addition to the 2010 electoral target list: freshman Republican Congressman Leonard Lance. A new internal poll conducted on behalf of Democratic nominee Ed Potosnak shows that Lance is well under 50% in his re-election bid against Potosnak. Lance holds a 43-30 lead over the Democrat, but an "informed trial heat" cuts the lead down to four points (47-43). In 2008, when the seat was a top-tier open seat race, Lance defeated Linda Stender by a surprisingly wide 50-42 margin.

WA-02: Best internal poll. Ever.
This is awesomeness, squared: the campaign of Republican contender John Koster is flogging an internal poll claiming a lead over Democratic Rep. Rick Larsen. Now, Koster did hold Larsen to a 50-46 margin in their first battle for this seat back in 2000, and this is a tough climate. Two things foster a bit of skepticism about the poll, though. Numero Uno: the results revealed by Koster's pollster says that the toplines were "in the neighborhood" (WTF?) of a 53-47 Koster lead. Not only no undecideds, but..."in the neighborhood"?! Numero two-o, though, is even better: at least one polling question identified Larsen as a Republican. How do we know this? Because Larsen himself was one of the 700-ish people polled! How do you like those one-in-one-thousand odds?!

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

AZ-Gov: Local personnel dispute latest bizarre Brewer claim
Now that she has apparently sewn up the Republican nomination through her anti-immigrant crusade, Governor Jan Brewer might be creating an opening in the general election from her inability to close her own mouth. Her latest outlandish claims are being refuted by medical examiners in her home state. Brewer claimed over the weekend that border-region law enforcement are finding beheaded bodies in the desert, a sign of the violence that is visited upon Arizona by immigration along the Mexican border (right up there with the drug mules comment from last week). Her problem: six county medical examiners are disputing that assertion, saying that they have never encountered such a case.

WI-Gov: PPP sees modest leads for GOP contenders vs. Barrett
Falling in line with virtually every poll in the state, the crew over at PPP find that either Republican contender for Governor holds the lead against the likely Democratic nominee, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker leads the Democrat by seven points (45-38), while former Congressman Mark Neumann holds a slightly smaller advantage (41-36). One aggravating factor is that this is one of a handful of states where favorability for President Obama has taken a real downfall in the 20 months since his election. Elected in the state by a 56-42 margin, he now faces a 45/50 approval spread. Barrett also doesn't benefit from the Democrat in charge of the statehouse: Governor Jim Doyle's approval rating languishes in the high 20s.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA

The House of Ras hits two high-profile Dem Senate targets for 2012, and has the Dems trailing (shocking, I know). Notably, though, both Democrats are within striking range. Meanwhile, one Democratic pickup seems assured, even by Team Rasmussen--Republican Linda Lingle will apparently be replaced by a Democrat.

HI-Gov: Neal Abercrombie (D) 58%, Duke Aiona (R) 32%
HI-Gov: Mufi Hannemann (D) 52%, Duke Aiona (R) 30%
HI-Gov: Neal Abercrombie (D) 59%, John Carroll (R) 30%
HI-Gov: Mufi Hannemann (D) 57%, John Carroll (R) 23%
KY-Sen: Rand Paul (R) 49%, Jack Conway (D) 42%
MO-Sen: Roy Blunt (R) 48%, Robin Carnahan (D) 43%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 07:56 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  It's always a beautiful day in the (5+ / 0-)

    neighborhood when you guesstimate your own polling.

    You don't bring a knife to a gunfight and you don't bring a chicken to the doctor.

    by beltane on Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 08:03:45 PM PDT

  •  sadly, Brewer's bizarre claims might work (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, deep, happymisanthropy

    If anything, I fear that Brewer's bizarre claims might endear her to AZ voters. Consider that her base consists of the same people who regularly re-elect Joe Arpaio and a sizable minority of whom would prefer to throw John McCain overboard for being too liberal.

    •  She is a very low person (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pine, deep

      to concoct horrible stories like this. Will her next trick be to claim that the Jews have poisoned the wells?

      You don't bring a knife to a gunfight and you don't bring a chicken to the doctor.

      by beltane on Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 08:09:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  if it involved illegal immigrants . . . (3+ / 0-)

        Then yes, it sounds about right for her. I totally agree that she's a scumbag.

        What's doubly sad here is that Brewer's xenophobic rhetoric didn't start until she realized that her re-election campaign was in danger and that she needed some convenient scapegoat to unify her base. It seems to be working in terms of getting her through the primary, although it remains to be seen whether it will carry her through the general. If she does win, I suspect it will be a pyrrhic victory that will permanently damage the GOP's reputation with Latino voters.

    •  Do you think (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pine
      she's hallucinating?  Could she be on drugs? (snark)

      When shit happens, you get fertilized.

      by ramara on Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 08:42:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  i will take 50 tshirts with this on them: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, beltane

    "Numero two-o, though, is even better: at least one polling question identified Larsen as a Republican. How do we know this? Because Larsen himself was one of the 700-ish people polled! How do you like those one-in-one-thousand odds?!"
    gods be shinin' and clouds be puffy...

    The Addington perpwalk is the trailhead for accountability in this wound on our national psyche. [...you know: Dick Cheney's "top" lawyer.] --Sachem

    by greenbird on Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 08:06:19 PM PDT

  •  Dr. Dan is making a mistake (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    not endorsing Jack. It was a tough race -- but pique does not serve one well in the long run, and political memories can be long.

    As for running for governor -- that's another story. There are any number of people who are not enamored of either the Gov or Mayor-for-Life Abramson, so Dr. Dan might have some shot there. But not if he takes his ball and blankie and goes home.

    Bruce in Louisville
    Visit me at brucemaples.com

    Follow me on Twitter: @brucewriter

    by bmaples on Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 08:09:14 PM PDT

  •  Well, HI-GOV numbers look good (7+ / 0-)

    Dems should have a good top of the ticket there, with the governor's race and Daniel Inouye in the Senate race. That should help Colleen Hanabusa win the House race.

    •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

      Much better than the numbers I have seen for governors races in Wisconsin and Illinois.  I worry that Democrats could actually be down to less than 15 governorships out of 50 after the election.  That could happen if Democrats lose Tennessee, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Oregon, New Mexico, Michigan, Colorado, Massachussetts, and Wisconsin and only pick up Hawaii.  That would leave Democrats with just 13 seats to 36 for Republicans.  That would leave Democrats at their weakest point in governorships dating back to Teddy Roosevelt or earlier.  

      •  GOP is really focusing on Governorships... (0+ / 0-)

        Dems not so much.  Who does the redistricting? Also GOP knows there is a good chance the 2016 President will be a governor as opposed to another Senator.

        I like White over Perry in Texas.  Strickland looks decent to be re-elected, as does Deval Patrick.  

        Politics is like playing Asteroids - You go far enough to the left and you end up on the right. Or vice-versa.

        by Jonze on Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 08:32:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Senators have a very tough time winning (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          scamperdo

          Obama was an exception because Bush and Palin were so awful.  Every President elected since 1960 has either been a governor(Clinton, Reagan, Carter, Bush) or a Vice President(Bush 41, LBJ, Nixon) except for Obama.

          •  Exactly. GOP is already planning for 2016... (0+ / 0-)

            Dems don't seem to have their eye on that ball yet.  

            Politics is like playing Asteroids - You go far enough to the left and you end up on the right. Or vice-versa.

            by Jonze on Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 09:00:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  What do you expect? (0+ / 0-)

              When do Democrats think about anything other than right here, right now?

              •  Which is crazy... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                flhiii88

                Since 2016 President will replace Scalia, Kennedy and Thomas probably with in their first term.  

                I guess Dem hopes will be on Schweitzer or Warner.  Bayh will make a run for the Indiana Governorship in 2012, but he can't start running in 2014 for the Presidency.  I suspect Kaine will be given a Cabinet spot when the eventual reshuffle happens. I wonder if the plan is to bring back Huntsman as a Democrat.

                Politics is like playing Asteroids - You go far enough to the left and you end up on the right. Or vice-versa.

                by Jonze on Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 09:14:50 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  Redistricting is done by state legislatures (0+ / 0-)

          in most states.. with most states needing approval of the governor.

          That is one important aspect of the Gubernatorial race here in Illinois.

          "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others." - G. Marx

          by Skeptical Bastard on Thu Jul 01, 2010 at 05:12:05 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Well, I think Dems have a strong chance of (5+ / 0-)

        pickups in CA and CT(and to a lesser degree, FL, TX, GA), and I think have a good chance of holding OR, NM, OH, and MA.  

      •  We need to counter by concentrating on SoS races (0+ / 0-)

        Don't forget that typically the Secretary of State has authority over elections and can be very important in making sure our underrepresented base that is easily confused by the complexity of voting still has their vote counted. It's not flashy, but for us as progressives, the Secretary of State races are extremely important.

  •  Shocked Ras even admits its that close in KY lol (0+ / 0-)

    I figured they would keep their Rand over Conway by 20 polling going for a while longer!

  •  I gotta ask.... (0+ / 0-)

    Who or what is Linda Lingle?

    Meanwhile, one Democratic pickup seems assured, even by Team Rasmussen--Republican Linda Lingle will apparently be replaced by a Democrat.

  •  Kentucky Elections Prediction (0+ / 0-)

    Here is an interesting prediction:  Conway is elected to the Senate in 2010; Beshear and Abramson are elected Gov. & Lt. Gov in 2011;  Beshear runs against McConnell in 2014.  If he wins, Abramson becomes Governor, and wins reelection in 2015.

    You read it here first.

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