How could such a thing be? Isn't Idaho the reddest state in the nation? Maybe not as red as you think.
Signs and portents are in the air in the Big Potato.
Before I start acting like a wizened trail scout cutting sign, I'd like to express my deep gratitude for the kind remarks and hat tips for my maiden diary on the Kos. Many thanks, folks!
I'm a 5th generation native, and my family has lived in the Idaho Falls area before Idaho became a state. Bonneville County and Idaho Falls, the county seat, lie in the S.E. corner of the state, in the heart of the state's Mormon corridor, which extends from the Utah border to the Montana border on the west side of the Great Divide.
I.F. is the largest city south of Boise these days, and the state Republican convention was held here recently.
Idaho Falls has always contributed major power players to our state politics, from the wise to the wacky; an early Democrat, Barzilla Clark, served as our Governor way back, and more recently, I.F. was home to Idaho's latest national joke, Rex Rammell, the Veterinarian on a Mission From God for Governorship. If you haven't heard of Rex, Google him and be amazed. (Sadly, Rex recently departed for more friendly and extreme pastures in the north of the state. He took his plastic dinosaur with him, dammit.)
We have our share of leaders in both parties, but for the past 20 years or more, Idaho Falls was the home to several very powerful Republican leaders who held great party influence but were never candidates for anything. These guys were the ones who largely shaped the directions the party followed, and influenced the party's philosophy and goals.
There's a lot of back story that I'm not getting into here, but these guys constitute much of the Old Guard of the state's Republican faithful, and there is a lot of the faithful around these parts. The Old Guard is now in disarray, largely from the influence of the teabaggers and the hard right, which got all the harder after the election of 2008. Like everywhere, the tea party got a disproportionate amount of attention here.
But Idaho Republicans aren't all that confidant this year, and it shows in their platform. Here are some of the interesting planks:
• A loyalty oath for all Repub candidates. (Penalties for not toeing the party line are mentioned but unspecified)
• Repealing the 17th Amendment to the Constitution (that's the amendment that allowed voters to elect Senators)
• Closed primaries for the party (Idaho has always had an open primary)
• Support for the Idaho Health Care Freedom Act. (that's the notorious law that was passed in opposition to HCR)
All evidence that Idaho Republicans are trying to throw out their moderates in the party leadership. Lots of red meat for the Beck set, but very little that is practical politics. The Health Care Freedom Act is sure to go to the courts, and it's going to cost us money for that hanky-panky.
Meanwhile, the party has a candidate roster that they have to support, even though doing so is causing a lot of dyspepsia among the hard right.
The big candidate is Butch Otter, a rich and powerful party insider who's the current Governor. Butch is an old-time Idaho populist who always had a hankering for the Governor's office, but he's been very weak in his leadership as Governor. He went head to head with his party in the 2009 legislative session, which lasted the longest in history, and he came out bloodied... most of his agenda was either defeated or left on the table.
In this year's session, he caved in, and the session passed the largest cuts in education ever, the first time Idaho has ever decreased it's education budget. By the end of the school year, the cuts were being felt all over the state, and people aren't happy about them, especially here. Idaho Falls has been a leading tech center in nuclear research for 50 years, and we understand the importance of good public education.
Butch has never been popular in this side of the state, and the feeling is mutual. The reasons are obscure, but S.E. Idaho defeated his first try at the Governor's seat, 20 years ago. And following his miserable performance of the past two sessions, his popularity is no greater now. The same is true in Boise and other parts of the state.
The Democrats, meanwhile, have an excellent candidate- Keith Allred.
Keith is a native, is LDS, an ivy-league graduate, and has an independent consulting firm that has resolved many bills that were stalemated. He was an undeclared Independent until just before the primaries, but he's garnered support from many moderate Republicans, and has a bigger war chest than Otter's, all from small contributions. He's also as cowboy as Otter- Keith rides reining horses- and as tall and good looking. Superficials, for sure, but it's always the little details that count here.
So the Repubs are stuck with a candidate who has a fight on his hands, and they're shaky supporting him. They have another shaky candidate, running for the 1st Congressional District- Rual Labrador.
Labrador was the tea party favorite, and got nowhere until the Old Guard's hand-picked buy, Vaughn Ward, pulled the pin and put the grenade in his pocket.
You might remember him- he's the idiot who ripped off big hunks of Obama's 2004 convention speech when he announced his candidacy. The grenade went off a week before the primaries, and Labrador slid into the position, but the Old Guard is playing like he doesn't exist, so far. Labrador is running against the incumbent Democrat, Walt Minnick, who is a blue dog, but a popular blue dog with a lot of money and support.
The primaries didn't pan out well for the far right in this area. Rep. Mike Simpson is an Old Guard bring-home-the-pork Republican who is probably the most popular politician in Idaho, and the teabagger who ran against him got 25% of the vote. In Idaho, 25% a ten pound can of whoopass. Anything less than 30% is humilating.
In recent local and county elections, the hard right has done no better. S.E. Idaho is conservative, but they're essentially moderate, and they're not crazy most of the time.
Right now, the hard right are the most active partisans in the local Republican party. They have seized many Central Committee seats from the folks who have held them for decades, and those people aren't a bit happy with their loss of influence and power. I have a relative through marriage who is one of the defeated, and she's real busy now, supporting Keith Allred. Bonneville County Republicans officially endorsed two local candidates last year in the city elections, and one in the recent primary, and all were beaten soundly. City elections have always been non-partisan, and none of the incumbents accepted any endorsements.
It's going to be a down and dirty time from here to November here. Idaho has a taste for wingnuts, so no one is making any predictions yet, but a few things are certain- the Idaho Republicans are in deep disarray, and are splitting up to some degree as yet unknown. A lot of chickens are coming home to many roosts. And we few outnumbered Democrats are taking care of business. Idaho could become a purple state this time around, or not- but it's sure fun in the watching, either way.