Summary:
Illinois has 19 representatives, 12 Democrats and 7 Republicans. Vulnerable are
IL-06 (R) esp. if Roskam runs for senate.
IL-10 (R) which is now open
IL-11 (D) where Halvorsen is a freshman in a swing district
Primary is done
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
FEC
and my previous diaries.
District: IL-01
Location Partly the south side of Chicago, partly suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 34
Representative Bobby Rush (D)
VoteView rank 50.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 86-14 over Antoine Members
2006 margin 84-16
2004 margin 85-15
Obama margin 87-13
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Current opponents Ray Wardingley
Demographics More Blacks than any other district (65.3%), 13th most Democratic, per Cook PVI
Assessment Safe. Rush has just over $100K COH. No info on Wardingley
District: IL-02
Location South side of Chicago and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 36
Representative Jesse Jackson Jr (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 14
First elected 1995
2008 margin 89-11 over Anthony Williams
2006 margin 85-12
2004 margin 88-12
Obama margin 90-10
Bush margin 2004 16-84
Current opponents Isaac Hayes (no, not THE Isaac Hayes)
Demographics 4th most Blacks (62%), 13th most Democratic (tied with the IL-01)
Assessment Safe. Jackson has $400K COH, Hayes has little.
District: IL-03
Location Southwestern Chicago map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative Dan Lipinski (D)
VoteView rank 192.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 73-21 over Michael Hawkins
2006 margin 77-23
2004 margin 73-25
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents Michael Bendas
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Lipinski has half a million COH, Bendas has $5. (and no sense)
District: IL-04
Location Possibly the oddest shaped district in the USA (and that's saying something!) this one...looks like an ordinary district with a big piece missing in the middle. It includes the Latino districts on the north side, wanders west, has a string-wide bit going south, and then includes the Latino districts on the south side. map.
Cook PVI D + 32
Representative Luis Gutierrez (D)
VoteView rank 45
First elected 1992
2008 margin 81-11 over Daniel Cunningham
2006 margin 86-14
2004 margin 84-12
Obama margin 85-13
Bush margin 2004 21-79
Current opponents No Republican, but there is a Green candidate
Demographics 5th most Latinos (74.5%) (3 of the 4 higher are in TX), 5th fewest veterans (4.3%)
Assessment Safe
District: IL-05
Location North side of Chicago, from the lake west to O'Hare map
Cook PVI D + 19
Representative Mike Quigley
First elected 2009
VoteView rank NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 73-26
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Current opponents David Ratowitz (R) and a Green candidate
Demographics 23rd fewest veterans (6.7%)
Assessment Safe. Quigley has a quarter million COH, Ratowitz has little.
District: IL-06
Location Western suburbs of Chicago map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Peter Roskam (R)
VoteView rank 381
First elected 2006
2008 margin 58-42 over Jill Morgenthaler
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents Ben Lowe
Demographics 12th fewest people in poverty (4.3%), 30th highest median income ($63K)
Assessment This is almost a swing district, but Roskam now has over $700K COH, while Lowe has little. Plus Roskam is now the incumbent. Looks safe for Roskam.
District: IL-07
Location Chicago's Loop and nearby map
Cook PVI D + 35
Representative Danny Davis (D)
VoteView rank 20.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 85-15 over Steve Miller
2006 margin 87-13
2004 margin 86-14
Obama margin 88-12
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Current opponents Mark Weiman
Demographics 16th most Blacks (61.6%), 20th most people in poverty (24%) (but median income is moderate - $40K)
Assessment Safe. Davis has $400K COH, no info on Weiman.
District: IL-08
Location North of Chicago to the WI border, including Schaumburg map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Melissa Bean (D)
VoteView rank 226
First elected 2004
2008 margin 60-40 over Steve Greenberg
2006 margin 51-44 (remainder "moderate" party)
2004 margin 52-48
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 56-44
Current opponents Joe Walsh
Demographics 28th highest income ($63K)
Assessment After two close races, Bean won easily in 2008, doing even better than Obama. She has over $1 million COH, an established moderate record that suits this swing district. Walsh has only $46K COH, and is a right winger.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Safe
District: IL-09
Location Northern suburbs of Chicago map
Cook PVI D + 20
Representative Jan Schakowsky (D)
VoteView rank 23
First elected 1998
2008 margin 75-22 over Michael Younan
2006 margin 75-25
2004 margin 76-24
Obama margin 72-26
Bush margin 2004 32-68
Current opponents Joel Pollak
Demographics 35th fewest veterans (8%), 37th most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks (mostly 12.3% Asians)
Assessment Safe. Schakowsky has close to half a million COH, Pollak has little.
District: IL-10
Location Northern suburbs of Chicago, along Lake Michigan map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Mark Kirk (R) Running for Senate
VoteView rank NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 61-38
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Current opponents Democrat Dan Seals; Republican Bob Dold.
Assessment Hard to say. Each has roughly $400 K COH; I'd guess Seals has better name recognition from his previous runs. Dold is a businessman (he runs a pest control company), Seals is a former teacher and now a business consultant. This will be hard fought
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup (for lack of a strong sense of what's going on)
District: IL-11
Location Shaped like a T, with the middle of the T in Ottawa, the bottom in Bloomington, the eastern end in Kankakee, and the western end in rural IL map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Debbie Halvorson (D)
VoteView rank NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 58-34 over Marty Ozinga
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Current opponents Adam Kinzinger
Demographics 39th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks
Assessment Halvorsen has over $1.2 million COH, Kinzinger about $300K.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Lean D. Obama got some favorite son votes here; this is a swing district. But Halvorson has more COH and the incumbency.
District: IL-12
Location Southwestern IL, bordering MO and a tiny bit of KY, including Carbondale and East St. Louis map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Jerry Costello (D)
VoteView rank 189
First elected 1988
2008 margin 72-25 over Timmy Richardson
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 54-44
Bush margin 2004 48-52
Current opponents Teri Newman
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Costello has over $2 million COH, no info on Newman
District: IL-13
Location Southwestern suburbs and exurbs of Chicago map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Judy Biggert (R)
VoteView rank 293
First elected 1998
2008 margin 54-44 over Scott Harper
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 65-35
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents Scott Harper is running again.
Demographics 9th wealthiest district (median income = $72K), 2nd fewest in poverty (2.9%)
Assessment Harper was 10 points behind in a Democratic year, with Obama's coattails. I wish him luck, but right now, it doesn't look too hopeful. Biggert has $750K or so COH, Harper about $175K. Both have debt.
District: IL-14
Location From the far western part of Chicagoland, west almost to the IA border in northern IL map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Bill Foster (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 228
First elected 2008
2008 margin 57-43 over Jim Oberweis
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents Randy Hultgren
Demographics 37th highest income (median = $56K)
Assessment Foster, a conservative Democrat, fits this district well. He should be OK. Foster has about $1.2 million COH, Hultgren about $100K.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D
District: IL-15
Location Eastern central IL, bordering IN, centering on Urbana-Champaign map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Tim Johnson (R)
VoteView rank 247
First elected 2000
2008 margin 64-36 over Steve Cox
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 59-41
Current opponents David Gill
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot, Gill has lost to Johnson at least twice. Johnson has about $150K COH, Gill has little
District: IL-16
Location Northwestern IL, bordering WI and IA, including Rockford map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Don Manzullo (R)
VoteView rank 345
First elected 1992
2008 margin 61-36 over Robert Abboud
2006 margin 64-32
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents George Gaulrapp
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot. Manzullo has about $350K COH, Gaulrapp has little.
District: IL-17
Location A strange shaped district in southwestern IL, bordering IA and MO, including Moline and extending eastward almost to Springfield
map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Phil Hare (D)
VoteView rank 151
First elected 2006
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Bobby Schilling
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Hare has about 3/4 million COH, Schilling about $100K
District: IL-18
Location Shaped like a backward C, centering on Peoria in central IL map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Aaron Schock (R)
VoteView rank NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 59-38 over Coleen Callahan
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents Deirdre Hirner
Demographics 75th most Whites (90%)
Assessment Safe for Repubs. Schock has about $450K COH, Hirner has little.
District: IL-19
Location Southern IL, from suburbs of Springfield south and east to the IN and KY border map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative John Shimkus (R)
VoteView rank 307
First elected 1996
2008 margin 64-33 over Dan Davis
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 44-54
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents Tim Bagwell.
Demographics
Assessment Long shot. Shimkus has almost $1.5 million COH, no info on Bagwell.