The data today is primarily GOP internal polls or emanating from the House of Rasmussen, but that doesn't mean that we don't have an entertaining mid-week edition of the Wrap. How can you not be entertained by an infomercial maven that is less-than-amused by John McCain? How can you not be entertained by a prominent GOP recruit getting shut down (again) by a prominent GOP-friendly interest group?
And we haven't even gotten into the on again-off again West Virginia Senate special election leaning (for the moment, anyway) back towards being "on again."
All this (and more!) on the Wednesday edition of the Wrap....
THE U.S. SENATE
AZ-Sen: A pissed infomercial king is not good news (!) for McCain
Without question, Senator John McCain has gained a ton of political yardage by exploiting the infomercial-hosting past of his primary rival, former Congressman JD Hayworth. But he has now earned the enmity of the King of Infomercials himself: Matthew Lesko (he of the question-mark suits). Lesko isn't displeased with McCain's hammering of Hayworth, however, he is ticked off that McCain's web video used footage of Lesko's infomercials without the permission of the infomercial celebrity.
WA-Sen: Rossi rare Republican to be denied WFB endorsement
In a state as agriculture-rich as Washington, the endorsement of the state Farm Bureau is a must-have. Typically, those endorsements go to Republican candidates. The 2010 cycle in Washington was no exception, as the Washington Farm Bureau endorsed a quartet of House Republican candidates. For the Senate, however, they declined to make an endorsement. The question now, as Goldy notes in the linked article, is why. It is unlikely to be a direct shot at Rossi, since he earned their endorsement in the past. Was it a nod to teabagger insurgent Clint Didier, who (after all) is a farmer? Or, more pointedly, was it a nod towards Senator Patty Murray, who is much more likely to help Washington farmers as a member of the majority than Dino Rossi would be in what, unless the GOP can shoot the moon, would be a minority Senate GOP?
WV-Sen: Now, it's (almost) unanimous, as Manchin backs '10 special
The momentum that has seemed to build all week in favor of moving the Senate special election to replace the late Senator Robert Byrd seemed to hit critical mass today, with a call from none other than Governor Joe Manchin to hold the election this Fall. Manchin again ruled out appointing himself in the interim, but did confirm that he is considering presenting himself as a candidate for the special election. All that appears to be left is for the state Attorney General to clear the move, as well as the affirmation of the state legislature (which now seems likely).
THE U.S. HOUSE
IN-09: Hill leads competitive race according to GOP internal poll
The crew over at SSP has unearthed a slightly dusty (it looks like it was conducted at the end of May) poll for Republican Todd Young which shows him within striking distance, though trailing, Democratic incumbent Baron Hill. The poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, has Hill leading Young by a 41-34 margin. Perhaps the primary season took its pound of flesh (or perhaps Young is still virtually unknown), because a poll conducted for FDL by SurveyUSA in January pitting Hill against former GOP Congressman Mike Sodrel (who lost in the May GOP primary) gave the Republican an eight point edge.
LA-03: Are Dems still fishing for a candidate in Dem-held open seat
Given the terrain, it was already assumed that Southern Louisiana's 3rd district would be a tough hold for Dems (Dem incumbent Charlie Melancon is running for the Senate). And despite the fact that a Democrat is already in the field that had raised nearly half a million dollars as of March, an article in the New Orleans Times-Picayune seems to imply that the Democrats are still on the recruiting trail. Attorney Ravi Sangisetty got into the race early, and already had $469K banked by the end of the 1st quarter. But the article hints that Democrats are still trying to persuade interim state Lt. Governor Scott Angelle into the race.
TN-06: Primary internal poll says to bet on Black in 6th district
If a new internal poll conducted for the candidate by OnMessage is to be believed, then state Senator Diane Black is the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination in this prime pickup opportunity for the GOP. The 6th district, which is being left open by the retirement of longtime Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon, is red territory, and the poll shows Black pacing the field with 41% of the vote. Well behind in second and third are Lou Ann Zelenik (22%) and fellow state legislator Jim Tracy (20%).
TN-08: Fincher internal poll claims lead in other Dem open seat
Despite unforced errors being committed right and left in the GOP primary field, a new poll by Tarrance for NRCC fave Stephen Fincher shows him modestly ahead of his two leading Republican rivals for the GOP nod. Fincher leads with 32%, holding off physician Ron Kirkland (23%) and Shelby County Commissioner George Flinn (21%). The poll release is a little curious, since it is markedly closer than the previous Fincher internal poll, which showed Fincher up with 40%, while the other two GOPers languished in the teens.
WV-01: Distinct thaw between Dem leadership and insurgent Oliverio
If politics makes strange bedfellows, then politics in an uphill climate only magnifies the effect. That might explain why Congressional leaders like Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, and DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen all cut checks for Oliverio in the second quarter of the year. Noticeably absent was Speaker Pelosi, who was the subject of an Oliverio primary-era rant when he openly questioned whether he could support her for Speaker. Oliverio, for what it is worth, backed away from that comment several weeks later.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
AL-Gov: Byrne demands investigation of attack ads
In a repeat of the first round of the GOP gubernatorial primary in Alabama, Bradley Byrne is the target of ads by an opposition that is shrouded in secrecy. Byrne has demanded an investigation of a group called the Conservative Coalition for Alabama, who has not registered with the Secretary of State but has nevertheless launched ads going after Byrne. In the first round of the primary, a group called the True Republican PAC, lambasted Byrne in televised ads.
GA-Gov: Backmarker in GOP primary goes to the Jan Brewer playbook
Illegal immigration might not be quite the issue in Georgia that it is along the U.S.-Mexico border, but that isn't stopping former Republican Congressman and gubernatorial candidate Nathan Deal from trying to lift his standing in that state's competitive primary by jumping on the anti-immigrant bandwagon. Deal is promising to duplicate Arizona's controversial SB 1070 in the Peach State. This might be a bit of a Hail Mary for Deal, who has slid to third place behind John Oxendine and Karen Handel, according to a recent poll by Insider Advantage.
TX-Gov: Dems drop legal challenge--Greens to remain on ballot
Despite what seemed to be some fairly strong connective tissue tying the petition effort to get the Green Party on the ballot to the GOP, the state Democratic Party today reversed course, dropping their legal challenge to the Green Party's ballot status in 2010. While the party retains the right to seek civil penalties if further evidence arises, this means that Green Party nominee Deb Shafto will remain on the gubernatorial ballot, and will likely siphon votes away from Democratic nominee Bill White. The Dems had alleged that advocates of Republican Governor Rick Perry had given an illegal in-kind contribution by funding the Green Party petition drives.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
Ras polls. Republicans look good. Sun rises in east. Sets in west.
KS-Sen: Jerry Moran (R) 59%, Lisa Johnston (D) 23%
KS-Sen: Jerry Moran (R) 60%, David Haley (D) 22%
KS-Sen: Jerry Moran (R) 60%, Charles Schollenberger (D) 23%
KS-Sen: Jerry Moran (R) 60%, Robert Conroy (D) 23%
KS-Sen: Todd Tiahrt (R) 52%, Lisa Johnston (D) 32%
KS-Sen: Todd Tiahrt (R) 54%, David Haley (D) 26%
KS-Sen: Todd Tiahrt (R) 54%, Charles Schollenberger (D) 29%
KS-Sen: Todd Tiahrt (R) 53%, Robert Conroy (D) 29%
NC-Sen: Sen. Richard Burr (R) 52%, Elaine Marshall (D) 37%
OK-Gov: Mary Fallin (R) 48%, Drew Edmondson (D) 39%
OK-Gov: Drew Edmondson (D) 46%, Randy Brogdon (R) 35%
OK-Gov: Drew Edmondson (D) 44%, Robert Hubbard (R) 31%
OK-Gov: Drew Edmondson (D) 45%, Roger Jackson (R) 29%
OK-Gov: Mary Fallin (R) 55%, Jari Askins (D) 32%
OK-Gov: Randy Brogdon (R) 47%, Jari Askins (D) 38%
OK-Gov: Robert Hubbard (R) 43%, Jari Askins (D) 38%
OK-Gov: Roger Jackson (R) 42%, Jari Askins (D) 40%