Summary:
OH has 18 representatives: 10 D, 8 R, primary done
OK has 5 representatives: 1 D, 4 R, primary July 27
OR has 5 representatives: 4 D, 1 R, primary done
Possibly vulnerable:
OH-01 (D)
OH-02 (R)
OH-06 (D)
OH-12 (R)
OH-13 (D)
OH-15 (D)
OH-16 (D)
OH-18 (D)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
FEC
and my previous diaries.
District: OH-01
Location Southwestern OH, bordering IN and KY, including Cincinnati map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative Steve Dreihaus (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 51-49 over Steve Chabot
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 55-44
Bush margin 2004 51-50
Current opponents Steven Chabot
Demographics 27th fewest Latinos (1.1%)
Assessment Dreihaus ousted Chabot, the incumbent; now, there's a rematch. Vulnerable. Each has about $1 million COH.
SSP rating: Tossup.
My rating: Lean R
District: OH-02
Location Central part of southern OH, bordering KY map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Jean Schmidt (R)
VoteView 374.5
First elected 2005
2008 margin 45-37 over Vic Wulsin. Remainder to David Krikorian, an independent.
2006 margin 50-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-59
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Current opponents Surya Yalamanchili
Demographics 22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%)
Assessment Schmidt is truly odious, although it is still a Republican stronghold.
SSP rating: Safe for Republicans. Schmidt had $300K COH, but a lot of debt; Yalamanchili has little.
District: OH-03
Location Southwestern OH, including Dayton map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Mike Turner (R)
VoteView 278
First elected 2002
2008 margin 64-36 over Jane Mitikides
2006 margin 59-41
2004 margin 62-38
Obama margin 47-51
Bush margin 2004 46-55
Current opponents Joe Roberts
Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Turner has about $200K COH, Roberts has little
District: OH-04
Location Slightly north and west of central OH map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Jim Jordan (R)
VoteView 426
First elected 2006
2008 margin 65-35 over Mike Carroll
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 38-60
Bush margin 2004 34-65
Current opponents Doug Litt and a Libertarian
Demographics 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Jordan has about $800K COH, Litt has little.
District: OH-05
Location Northwestern OH, bordering MI and IN map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Bob Latta (R)
VoteView 345
First elected 2007
2008 margin 64-36 over George Mays
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents Caleb Finkenbeiner
Demographics 41st most rural (51.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Latta has about $250K COH, no info on Finkenheimer.
District: OH-06
Location Southeastern OH, a long narrow strip along the whole of the border with WV map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Charlie Wilson (D)
VoteView 205.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 62-33 over Richard Stobbs
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents Bill Johnson
Demographics 47th most rural (50.0%), 62nd poorest (median income = $33K), 11th most White (95.2%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)
Assessment Although this is a swing district in POTUS, Wilson looks pretty good. Wilson has about $600K COH, but also $200K in debt, Johnson has about $150K COH
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Likely D
District: OH-07
Location Just south of central OH map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Steve Austria (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 58-42 over Sharen Neuhardt
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 45-54
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Bill Conner
Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Austria has about $300K COH, Conner has little.
District: OH-08
Location Central part of western OH, bordering IN map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative John Boehner (R)
VoteView 407.5
First elected 1990
2008 margin 68-32 over Nicholas von Stein
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 38-60
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents Justin Cossoule
Demographics 73rd most Whites (91.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans, although Boehner has his problems. Boehner has almost $1 million COH, Coussoule has little.
District: OH-09
Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including Toledo map
Cook PVI D + 10
Representative Marcy Kaptur (D)
VoteView 72
First elected 1982
2008 margin 74-26 over Bradley Leavitt
2006 margin 74-26
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 62-36
Bush margin 2004 42-55
Current opponents Rich Iott
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Kaptur has $1 million COH, Iott about $250K, but a ton of debt to himself
District: OH-10
Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including part of Cleveland map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Dennis Kucinich (D)
VoteView 2
First elected 1996
2008 margin 57-39 over Jim Trakas
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 60-34
Obama margin 59-39
Bush margin 2004 41-58
Current opponents Peter Corrigan
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Kucinich has about $120K COH, Corrigan about $60K
District: OH-11
Location Cleveland and eastern suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 32
Representative Marcia Fudge (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 85-15 over Tom Pekarik
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 85-14
Bush margin 2004 18-81
Current opponents None
Demographics 52nd lowest income (median = $32K), 63rd fewest Whites (38.8%), 18th most Blacks (55.5%)
Assessment No opponent
District: OH-12
Location Central OH, including part of Columbus map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative Pat Tiberi (R)
VoteView 316
First elected 2000
2008 margin 55-42 over David Robinson
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 62-38
Obama margin 53-46
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents Paula Brooks
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment From the Cook PVI numbers, it should be a bit vulnerable; I don't know anything about Paula Brooks. Tibieri has almost $2 million COH, Brooks an impressive $600K
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Likely R
District: OH-13
Location Northern OH, including Akron map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Betty Sutton (D)
VoteView 98.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 65-35 over David Potter
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 57-42
Bush margin 2004 44-56
Current opponents Tom Ganley
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment A little vulnerable. Sutton has about $600K COH, Ganley is self-financed in the millions. Still, this is a very Democratic district
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D
District: OH-14
Location Northeastern corner of OH, bordering PA and Lake Erie map
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative Steven LaTourette (R)
VoteView 264
First elected 1994
2008 margin 58-39 over Bill O'Neill
2006 margin 58-39
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 49-49
Bush margin 2004 53-44
Current opponents Bill O'Neill
Demographics 30th fewest in poverty (5.7%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. LaTourrette has $650K COH, O'Neill has little.
District: OH-15
Location Central OH, including Columbus map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 311 votes out of 260,000 over Steve Stivers
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 50-50
Current opponents Steve Stivers
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Vulnerable. Killroy has about $1 million COH, Stivers even more ($1.2 million) and no debt.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup
District: OH-16
Location North and east of central OH map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative John Boccieri (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 54-46 over Kirk Schuring
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents Jim Renacci
Demographics 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment A freshman in a Republican district has to be considered vulnerable. Boccieri has just over $1 million COH, Renacci has about $650K, but substantial debt
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D
District: OH-17
Location Northeastern OH, bordering PA, including Youngstown map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative Tim Ryan (D)
VoteView 109
First elected 2002
2008 margin 78-22 over Duane Grassell
2006 margin 80-20
2004 margin 77-23
Obama margin 62-36
Bush margin 2004 63-37
Current opponents Jim Graham
Demographics 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)
Assessment Safe. Ryan has about $250K COH, Graham has little
District: OH-18
Location South and east of central OH map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Zack Space (D)
VoteView 217
First elected 2006
2008 margin 60-40 over Fred Dailey
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 45-52
Bush margin 2004 57-41
Current opponents Bob Gibbs
Demographics 24th most rural (56.7%), 7th most White (95.9%), tied for least Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Looks fairly safe; Space fits the district. Space has $1.3 million COH, Gibbs about $200K
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D