Little or no attention is being given to the Dem side of the Arizona Senate race, almost as if its an afterthought and that its assumed that John McCain, once he disposes of JD Hayworth should have a cakewalk into the Senate for another 6 years of hypocritical positions as he attempts to be on the right side of the political hot button issue du juor.
The thing is....the Arizona Republicans are split and to a large degree pissed off. The vitriol that Hayworth and McCain are spending on each other are indications of the schism of the Republicans in Arizona itself. Johnny Maverick has his backers (mostly sheriffs that don't have a border with Mexico) and JD has Russ Pearce (the "brains" behind SB1070) in his corner. They aren't likely to forgive and forget once it's done...so what does that really mean?
On the Democratic side we have a slate of nationally unknown folks, and in many ways, this is a good thing. The frontrunner is Rodney Glassman, a local pol who has been quietly bankrolling and sometimes visitor here who has a small lead amongst those indicating a preference and some money but he really hasn't done much other than be an elected Democrat in a mostly blue constituency. Along with Glassman, we have Cathy Eden and John Dougherty also in the race along with Randy Parraz.
Here is what I perceive to be the breakdown. Dougherty is a great press guy, but that's also my biggest question. The work he's done on the left as an investigative reporter is great but can he be a legislator? Eden is quite possibly the best candidate in many ways, she's a Mo Udall school Democrat (which I like), and has been elected in her local areas but outside of that, she has very little prescence. In this climate, I don't think she can raise the level of engagement amongst Arizonans that is needed to beat the other side. Rodney Glassman is "smoother" than Parraz when it comes to public speaking but from what I've seen/researched (even here on Kos) Parraz has the right combination of union roots, history of working locally and not being a homophobe to be the right kind of candidate.
Most folks see Az as a dark Red state and yet, if you look deeper, we're electing Blue congresscritters. Yes, the state is gerrymandered internally to make lots of nice little R districts for the State legislature, but overall, the state is starting to trend blue and even some old school Reds are getting disgusted with what is going on. Remember that a lot of Arizona is old and a good amount of it is Mormon in the Maricopa county suburbs (Sheriff Joe's turf). Outside of Phoenix its a crap shoot, a polyglot of native american blocks (that need to be engaged), hispanics and a healthy sprinkling of Libertarian disposed ranchers that have their own agendas when it comes to social issues and then there's Yuma (retirement town), Tucson, Prescott and Flagstaff, each of them university towns with Tucson being the bluest.
As McCain's street cred is being called into question by Hayworth, and McCain's own hypocrisy on the immigration issue is being brought into the open in Hayworth ads. Then there are the lingering questions about his lack of judgement with selecting Palin as a running mate, those are some big time holes in his re-election boat, the opportunity is there for the right candidate. McCain has a lot of money and its a good thing he needs it as he has a lot of holes in his boat and JD Hayworth is busy making new holes as fast as he can with each new ad that is launched. Arizona is not one Republican nation, unified under Johnny maverick as even the state legislature is split on who is endorsing whom, so its going to be hard for certain folks to "kiss and make up" when this is done.
A savvy campaign, building upon Johnny Mavericks frequent flipflopping on the issues in order to stay on the right side of any issue at any time is sure to strike a chord with some people. We also need someone who can browbeat the noise machine with the simple facts about immigration will also score points, someone who has already stood up, in real life no less, to the likes of Joe Arpaio. So even if Hayworth is nominated, he disturbs those few remaining Republicans who still have a sense of sanity. So for the Republicans it's either vote for the Liar or the Thief, some choice eh?
The thing is, there is a large hispanic base in the state that could be/should be engaged, especially in THIS climate. With bunch of dissaffected Republicans, thanks to the muddy campaign being waged right now with the McCain/Hayworth fight; this plays into a rare opportunity to either run against a baggage heavy Hayworth or a wounded McCain. It is possible to win this, but you do need the right person. I believe that Randy Parraz is that person.
here's a link to a like minded diary for more details:
http://www.dailykos.com/...