The polls closed 6 hours ago in the Australian federal election and usually by this time, we have a result. However, for the first time since 1940, Australia is likely to have a hung parliament. With 76 seats needed to win in the 150 seat House of Representatives, Australians have followed their cousins in the United Kingdom and decided that they don't want anyone to have a majority. At this time, it appears as though each of the major parties will have approx 72-73 seats, the Greens will have one seat (formerly ALP) and independents will retain 3 seats and perhaps gain a fourth.
With about 14 million votes cast (voting is compulsory in Australia), it may take days or even weeks to decide who has the most seats in the lower House and whether the Labor Party (ALP) or the Liberal/National Coalition (LNP) will negotiate with 4 or possibly 5 independents who have won seats in the lower House. Even with the support of the independents, it is most likely that we will have a minority government. See the excellent ABC website for the latest updates.
This election was quite an unusual one in Australia. Kevin Rudd had led the ALP to victory in 2007, trouncing the Howard Government which had first won election in 1996. Until a year ago, Rudd had been riding high in the polls and Australians were happy to have weathered the GFC with unemployment of around 5.5% and continuing GDP growth. However, several policy missteps resulted in a plunge in the polls: the failure of the government to push through an emissions trading scheme (ETS), and the mismanagement of two parts of the government stimulus package: the home insulation program and the school infrastructure program. Additionally, many were wary of the proposed tax on windfall mining profits - even though this was a sound policy approved by the OECD, many in mining states like Queensland and Western Australia saw it as a threat to a prosperous industry.
The plunge in the polls was so dramatic that powerbrokers in the ALP (particuarly the New South Wales (NSW) Right faction) combined with the Victorian Left faction to topple first-term Prime Minister Rudd just months short of the next election. Rudd had been popular with the electorate but did not have a power base in any of the factions to support him when times got tough. Rudd made a huge mistake when he asked his Chief of Staff to sound out senior cabinet ministers to ensure that he still had their loyalty. His popular Deputy PM Julia Gillard then proceeded to 'roll' him. Gillard is firmly grounded in the powerful Victorian Left and combined with the NSW Right to remove Rudd almost overnight. For an overview of the ledership spill, seehere.
Gillard began to appease the electorate. She bargained down the mining tax, promised an ETS scheme when the country was ready (even though about 60% of Australians wanted one) and promised to deal with the fraud in the stimulus programs. She called a snap election and began to make mistakes almost immediately. The ALP ran a lacklustre campaign with the positives of the economy and low unemployment, a promised inclusion of dental care into the Medicare (the public health system), much-need infrastructure links in western Sydney etc being drowned-out by damaging cabinet leaks and a remarkably energetic and passionate campaign by Opposition Leader Tony Abbot. One thing both leaders had in common was their severe compassion-deficit on asylum-seekers with both supporting off-shore detention centers. In fact, one of the main criticisms of her campaign was that she was essentially running an LNP agenda, something rather unusual for a member of the Left faction.
With about 80% of the vote counted, the ALP managed to get about 38.1% of the primary vote, the LNP about 43.7% of the vote and the Greens about 11.6% of the vote. The LNP only got about 1.7% of the swing away from the ALP and the Greens were the big winners with 11.6% of the primary vote. The reason that the results are so tight is that many of the Greens preferences flow to the ALP (please don't ask me to explain preferential voting. Instead see this link and if you still don't understand, then just accept that it's like cricket and you have to grow up with it to understand the rules).
The swing was by no means uniform. In fact, local and state factors dominated in NSW and Queensland where 2 unpopular ALP state governments led many to take their dissatisfaction out on the federal ALP. An additional factor in Queenland was the anger over the toppling of local boy Kevin Rudd. These two states are where most of the governments seats were lost. Polls closed last in Western Australia and the handfull of seats there may determine who holds minority government.
You might ask why a country that has come through the GFC with low unemployment, strong growth and low levels of public debt would throw out the government that delivered these things to them. I really can't tell you why. I can say that historically, a government's first election in Australia is always tight. We saw this in 1984 (the first election I voted in) with the Hawke Government and again in 1998 with the Howard Government. A second factor in this is the loss of support for the ALP on the left which has flowed largely to the Greens (who look like they will hold the balance of power in the Senate). A third factor is that electorates in several countries have shown that they are not satisifed with their government's ability to deliver policy. That is certainly the case in Australia which hammered the ALP for not delivering on its promise to pass an ETS scheme. Another factor could be that by ousting a first-term PM right before an election, the ALP appeared desperate and panic-stricken and they cheated the electorate out of its right to pass their own judgement on the PM they had elected only 3 years ago.
Now we must wait for the counting of pre-poll, absentee and postal votes to determine the outcome in about 6 seats that are still in doubt. This process will take days and I'm sure there will be many recounts and challenging of votes. Sound familiar?
What I find interesting about this result, as well as the recent results in the UK, is that even though countries appear to be going through different conditions, there appears to be the same type of dissatisfaction with government and a 'none of the above' thinking seems to be coming into play. Votes are leaking away from the traditional parties and minor parties like the Greens are growing stronger. Perhaps this could have some application to the US elections in November?
Update at 7:30pm AEST 8/22/2010(Australian East Coast time). The results are still in uncertain. The ABC elections page is showing the ALP with a expected 72 seats and the LNP with 73, 4 independents and 1 Green. The Sydney Morning Herald/ (broadsheet owned by Fairfax press and not associated with Rupert Murdoch) reports the Australian Electoral Commission count is at 71 each for the ALP and LNP, 1 Green, 3 independents and 4 too close to call. There are still 80,000 uncounted votes in those 4 seats. Julia Gillard reports that she has already held talks with the 3 independents and the Greens.