Remember Mullah Baradar? The Taliban's #2 that was captured in Karachi either in a joint raid, by accident, or by Pakistani intelligence officials so they could hijack any peace process? The
New York Times has a
must-read detailing what readers of this series should have already known; that Baradar was captured by the ISI to derail a peace process, that the ISI warned other captured leaders that any future peace deal better include Pakistan and cannot go forth without their permission, and that the new military commander, Mullah Zakir, was amongst those initially captured and then set free to wage war in Afghanistan. Zakir, a former detainee at Guantanamo Bay, is said to be far more ruthless and far less concerned about civilian casualties than Baradar had been. His track record so far seems to confirm that.
How long Pakistan will try this double-game remains unclear. Both the U.S. and the Taliban are aware of it. If Pakistan should choose a side it would come when Pakistan is ready to commit to that side. If they were to choose the Taliban, it would come when it's clear that the U.S. and NATO are heading out. If they were to choose the U.S., it would come when they are ready to go into Afghan-Taliban sanctuaries like North Waziristan and the Wana region of South Waziristan- probably after they feel they have done enough damage to the anti-Pakistani militants such as the TTP/Pakistani Taliban and the Punjabi Taliban. Of course, the recent flooding in Pakistan has essentially taken away their capability of conducting such an offensive into either region for some time. So for awhile long, expect more double-gaming to take place from Pakistan's perch on the fence.
Afghanistan:
Reminder: Parliamentary elections take place on September 18th.
A U.S. and another NATO servicemember died in Afghanistan on Monday. The U.S. servicemember died in the south while the unidentified NATO soldier fell in the north of the country.
NATO and the Afghan National Army plan to conduct an offensive into the Zhari district of Kandahar next month. 1,000 U.S. and 400 Afghan troops will try to secure the Taliban-controlled district just west of Kandahar City. There are approximately 10,000 inhabitants of the district where Mullah Omar and the Taliban first arose from. While patrols and raids go into Zhari, the place remains in insurgent hands. Half a million has been slated for development projects that would be designed to employ locals rather than use contractors reliant on cheap help from outside of the district.
While discussing talks with the insurgents, Afghan President Hamid Karzai said there are no "formal" talks underway. He did however admit to discussions with "individual contacts" with some Taliban "elements".
General Petraeus reminds everyone not to expect a sudden drawdown of troops next year. He also has claimed that the Taliban's momentum in the south and around Kabul has been diminished.
Federally-Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan:
It would appear that militants dispatched a suicide bomber to target a pro-government official in South Waziristan. The suicide bomber detonated inside of a mosque, killing at least 18.
Further north in the central-FATA agency of Kurram, another bomb went off inside a school as tribal elders were meeting. 7 died in this incident.
Pakistan:
"Eastern Pashtunistan", also known as "Khyber Pakhtunkhwa" and formerly known as "North-West Frontier Province", remains devestated by torrential rains and flashfloods. Many other parts of Pakistan are also devastated. 20 million are now said by the U.N. to have been affected. The Daily Kos' Noweasels discusses the flooding in depth along with ways to help. Several well-respected experts on the area believe that while militants(namely Lashkar-e-Taiba) are in a strong position to try and win hearts and minds amongst the flood victims, the U.S. and the Pakistani army are likely to earn much respect for their efforts. The U.S. is planning to increase the number of helicopters providing aid to the region, with 15 in the field and 18 more planned to arrive. Because of the devestation to roads and bridges, helicopters are vital to the effort to not only evacuate victims but also to ferry in badly-needed aid. And Angelina Jolie has donated $100,000; what have you done? The flooding is still getting worse, especially in the southern province of Sindh and also in the vast and long-troubled province of Balochistan. CNN covers the many dire problems facing countless numbers who survived the flooding. Text "swat" to 20222 to make a $5 donation right now.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's provincial Information Minister and influential ANP-party leader, Iftkhar Hussain, has said that militants are regrouping outside of the provincial capital of Peshawar and that they are mixing in with the flood survivors. He urged the federal and provincial governments to immediately mount an operation against the militants. The Pakistani Taliban claimed credit last month for the assassination of Iftikhar Hussain's only son.
Maps:
When considering the situation in Pashtunistan, consider these maps of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is in the Pashtun areas where the U.S. and NATO have the most problems. It's important to note that while Pashtuns make up a much larger proportion of the population of Afghanistan than they do in Pakistan, there are still more Pashtuns in Pakistan than in Afghanistan. Here is a good map and rundown of the areas that make up the main warzone.