We are approximately 2 months away from the 2010 midterm elections, and the polls have consistently shown a gap between likely Democratic voters and Repbublican voters. I have read a number of different interpretations of why this gap exists, and a significant proportion from certain pundits lays the blame squarely at the feet of the White House, more specifically Rahm Emmanuel and Barack Obama.
Yet, so far, I have seen no convincing evidence that this is the reason. This is not a presidential year, so Barack Obama is not on the ballot. The groups that turned out in unprecedented numbers to vote for Obama in 2008 are back to their pre-2008 levels (youth and Blacks), and that is consistent with mid-term elections. Although both these groups face high unemployment, they both continue to give Obama relatively high job approval ratings. So their relative apathy in the midterms is not related to specific issues with Rahm Emmanuel, but is consistent with the usual off-year inattentiveness.
WHERE IS THE LACK OF ENTHUSIASM?
As noted in the recent Gallup (September 3rd 2010)
poll
On the Black-White Discrepancy:
Most notably, in contrast to 2008, when whites and blacks were about equally likely to say they were giving "quite a lot of" or "some" thought to the presidential election, whites are much more likely than blacks to be thinking about the 2010 elections: 42% vs. 25%, a gap exceeding those from recent midterm elections.
I contend that this excess of White over Black enthusiam in this midterm compared to other midterms also stems from the Republican conservative side.
On the Young-Old Discrepancy:
The gap between young adults (aged 18 to 29) and older adults (aged 30+) in their election attention levels was relatively narrow in 2008 -- 12 percentage points -- but the 23-point difference today (42% vs. 19%) is similar to the average 26-point gap seen in October-November of prior midterms, from 1994 through 2006. Again, this suggests that the relatively higher turnout of young voters in 2008 may not be repeated in 2010.
The primary reason for the enthusiam gap is not the deficiency of enthusiasm among Democrats, rather, it's the excess of enthusiam among Republicans. And it's easy to understand why Republicans are highly motivated this year. Apart from the fact that they are not in power, the person currently in the White House is a key factor in Republican turnout this year. The Tea Party, the exaggerated prominence of Glenn Becks, Limbaugh, Palin, and all these folks who ignite and maintain culture and racial wars, are important clues as to what is really driving the midterm turnout on the Republican side.
ARE DEMOCRATS STAYING HOME BECAUSE THEY ARE MAD AT RAHM?
The idea of liberal Democrats being unhappy with Obama and Rahm has not been borne out by the data either. Throughout 2009, and the first half of 2010, Obama consistently enjoyed high approvals among liberal Democrats ranging from 80-90%. During this period, Obama had managed to get the stimulus and HCR passed, both of which have been criticized as being inadequate by left-media pundits. Obama was thought to have sold out to big pharma with backroom deals, killed the public option, and capitulate to the right while "throwing progressives under the bus" time and again. During that period, Rahm was also alleged to have called liberals "f-ing retarded" which has been used quite often as a reason for decline in liberal support of Obama. Yet the data during this period did not show substantive decline in liberal support for Obama.
On the other hand, polls showed that Obama was losing mostly right-leaning Independent voters. A gallup poll on June 14 2010 showed that these Independent voters thought that Obama's policies were too liberal. with a 12-percentage point increase in those who thought so from 2008-2010.
http://www.gallup.com/...
On the public's changing views of the Democratic party from 2008 to 2010:
The recent increase in perceptions of the Democratic Party as too liberal could be a response to the expansion in government spending since President Barack Obama took office, most notably regarding the economic stimulus and healthcare legislation.
The 49% of Americans who now believe the Democratic Party's views are too liberal is one percentage point below the 50% Gallup measured after the 1994 elections, the all-time high in the trend question first asked in 1992.
Since February 2008, the percentage calling the Democratic Party "too liberal" has increased by 12 points among independents and 8 points among Republicans, with little change among Democrats.
WHERE ARE WE NOW AND WHAT HAVE THE TRENDS SHOWN?
Using the gallup tracking trends, it is appears that the bulk of President Obama's loss of support comes from Republicans and Independents. Obama started off with a ~ 61% approval from Indies, but is now at ~ 39%, a 22-point drop. He started off at 88% among Democrats, and is now at 79% - a 9 point drop for Democrats. He started off at 41% among Republicans, and is now at 11% - a whopping 30-point drop among Republicans!! And it's these voters who are most likely being the ones polled and are driving the "Obama approval tanking" narrative.
http://www.gallup.com/...
Bill Clinton at this time in his presidency suffered a 7-point loss in Dem support (from 73% to 66%), a 14-point loss among Independents (from 51% to 37%), and a 19-point loss among Republicans (from 33% to 14%).
President Clinton and Obama do not differ substantively in loss of Democratic support at the same time in their presidencies (9 points for Obama vs 7 points for Clinton), but Obama clearly has lost more support among Independents (22-point drop for Obama vs. 14-point drop for clinton), and Republicans (30-point drop for Obama vs. 19-point loss for Clinton) than Clinton has.
THE TAKE HOME MESSAGE: It should be about upping the enthusiam among the young people and minority voters. It should be about increasing efforts at the local level - having high profile Democrats like Clinton, Obama, etc campaign in the various states. It should be about having the lesser known senators reach out to the youth and minority communities. It should be about Democrats emphasizing the efforts made to increase employment (jobs, jobs, jobs!!!)while highlighting the Republican obstructionism and rooting for failure. It should be about Democrats exposing the do-nothing Republicans in congress adn associating them with Wall Street and tax cuts for wealthiest Americans. The story for this midterm election should NOT be about Rahm Emmanuel because he isn't the driving factor behind the enthusiasm gap.