Periodically, I go through the professional forecasters' House race rankings and assign numerical values to each ranking. I then rank the races based on their score and give each of them a consensus rating. This year, because the big question is "will we see Speaker Boehner?", I have fashined an overall projection of seat change from this data. I will explain my methodolgy after the jump, but the bottom line is that despite Charlie Cook saying the GOP "will very likely gain far more than the 39 seats needed for control," Larry Sabato projecting a GOP gain of 47, and Stu Rothenberg placing the range at 37-42, their own race ratings (combined with those of Congressional Quarterly and the New York Times), when compared with their ratings and results in 2006 and 2008, project out to a current gain of only 28.93 seats for the GOP.
The caveat, of course, is that this rests on certain assumptions, the key one being that the various race raters calls will not change between now and November. This, of course, will almost certainly not be the case; as I recall, in both 2006 and 2008, more and more GOP seats were rated more likely to fall as the elections drew near. I do not have my spreadsheets from September 2006 or 2008; I just have the final, pre-election ratings. So, just as the projected loss was 19 seats when I did this exercise in May (four months ago), the projected number will likely climb again between now and November 2.
The methodology I use both to compile the rankings and consensus ratings and the projections is as follows:
Each of The Cook Report, CQ, Rothenberg and Sabato use a three-tier rating system ("tossup" or "no clear favorite"; "leans [party]"; and "likely [party]" or "[party] favored"), and the New York Times uses only two tiers (Tossup and Leans [party]). For the three-tiered rating services, I assigned 45 points for tossup races, 30 for lean hold races, and 15 points for likely hold races. I used 53 for Rothenberg's tossup/lean takeover, 60 points for a pure lean takeover, and 75 for a likely takeover. I also used 37 for Rothenberg's tossup/lean hold category. For the Times, I assign 20 for lean hold, 40 for tossup, and 60 for lean takeover.
I present the composites both in terms of tiered rating and ranked by total points. Obviously, the higher a seat's total points, the more likely it is to change parties. I broke ties based on (1) open seat races before incumbent races and (2) district PVI. What is presented, in order, is a seat’s rank, its partisan vote index (note: this is mine, not Cook’s. I have a slightly different methodology), its total score, its overall net rating, and the candidates. Some of the last needs to be updated.
In order to create my ultimate projection, I looked at how seats scoring in certain ranges in the final ratings of 2006 and 2008 performed on Election Day, and applied the varying turnover percentages to the current ratings. Thus, in addition to assuming (for now) that these ratings are staying the same (and thus it is fair to compare these scores to the final totals for 2006 and 2008 races), I assume that the GOP will perform as well as the 2006 and 2008 Dems did at actually picking up seats rated as vulnerable, and vice versa. Thus, someone could argue, I suppose, that the Dems' national position is weaker than the GOP's in '06 and '08 and therefore they are likely to have a higher conversion rate in actually winning competitive races. While that may be the case, I would respond that (1) I'm not sure the national mood/position actually is worse for the Dems this year than it was for the GOP the last two; and (2) I would expect the race ratings already reflect the macro environment.
In any event, the projection is based on the GOP netting:
-4.00 seats from the 4 Dem seats with takeover scores of 345 and above (each seat having a 100% chance of flipping);
-2.85 seats from the 5 Dem and 2 GOP seats with scores between 260 and 324 (each having a 95% chance of flipping);
-19.63 seats from the 44 Dem and 2 GOP seats scoring between 190 and 259 (representing a sliding scale from 67% chance of flipping down to 42.5%);
-2.22 seats from the 17 Dem and 4 GOP seats rated between 110 and 154 (with the D seats given a 15.8% chance of flipping and the R seats 11.5% (this is the only range where I saw the party on offense performing markedly better than the party on defense)); and
-0.22 seats from the 32 Dem and 10 GOP seats with scores between 1 and 109 (a 1% chance of flipping).
The seats:
Dem Seats
1. AR-02 (Overall Rank: 1). PVI: R+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 365. Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover. D: J.Elliott. R: T.Griffin.
2. TN-06 (Overall Rank: 2). PVI: R+11. Total Vulnerability Score: 360. Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover. D: B.Carter. R: D.Black.
3. LA-03 (Overall Rank: 3). PVI: R+10. Total Vulnerability Score: 360. Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover. D: R.Sangisetty. R: J.Landry/ C.Leopold/ K.Magar/ N.Monica.
4. NY-29 (Overall Rank: 4). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 360. Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover. D: M.Zeller. R: T.Reed.
5. KS-03 (Overall Rank: 7). PVI: R+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 300. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: S.Moore. R: K.Yoder.
6. IN-08 (Overall Rank: 8). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 285. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: T.Van Haaften. R: L.Bucshon.
7. CO-04 (Overall Rank: 9). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 270. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: B.Markey*. R: C.Gardner.
8. OH-15 (Overall Rank: 10). PVI: E. Total Vulnerability Score: 270. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: M.Kilroy*. R: S.Stivers.
9. OH-01 (Overall Rank: 11). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 270. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: S.Driehaus*. R: S.Chabot.
10. AR-01 (Overall Rank: 12). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 255. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: C.Causey. R: R.Crawford.
11. TN-08 (Overall Rank: 13). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 255. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: R.Herron. R: S.Fincher.
12. MD-01 (Overall Rank: 14). PVI: R+12. Total Vulnerability Score: 250. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: F.Kratovil*. R: A.Harris/ R.Fisher/ J.Ghrist/ M.Romblad.
13. NM-02 (Overall Rank: 15). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 250. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: H.Teague*. R: S.Pearce.
14. FL-24 (Overall Rank: 16). PVI: R+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 250. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: S.Kosmas*/ P.Partyka. R: C.Miller/ K.Diebel/ S.Adams/ G.Garcia/ D.Long.
15. VA-05 (Overall Rank: 17). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 248. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: T.Perriello*. R: R.Hurt.
16. WA-03 (Overall Rank: 18). PVI: E. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: D.Heck/ C.Pridemore/ C.Crist. R: J.Herrera/ D.Castillo/ D.Hedrick/ C.Boyd.
17. NH-02 (Overall Rank: 19). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: A.Kuster/ K.Swett. R: C.Bass/ J.Horn/ R.Giuda/ L.Mannino/ A.Hemingway/ W.Sonner.
18. MS-01 (Overall Rank: 20). PVI: R+13. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: T.Childers*. R: A.Nunnelee.
19. ND-AL (Overall Rank: 21). PVI: R+10. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: E.Pomeroy*. R: R.Berg.
20. NH-01 (Overall Rank: 23). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: C.Shea-Porter*. R: F.Guinta/ R.Ashooh/ R.Bestani/ P.Bearce/ M.Castaldo.
21. TX-17 (Overall Rank: 24). PVI: R+18. Total Vulnerability Score: 235. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: C.Edwards*. R: B.Flores.
22. IL-11 (Overall Rank: 25). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 235. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: D.Halvorson*. R: A.Kinzinger.
23. MI-01 (Overall Rank: 26). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: G.McDowell. R: J.Allen/ D.Benishek.
24. VA-02 (Overall Rank: 27). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: G.Nye*. R: S.Rigell.
25. FL-02 (Overall Rank: 28). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: A.Boyd*/ A.Lawson. R: W.Southerland/ B.Olschner/ D.Scholl/ E.Hendry/ R.McNeil.
26. PA-03 (Overall Rank: 29). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: K.Dahlkemper*. R: G.Kelly.
27. FL-08 (Overall Rank: 30). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: A.Grayson*. R: D.Webster/ W.O'Donoghue/ K.Kelly/ W.Long/ P.Sullivan/ D.Fanelli/ R.Bieling.
28. NY-24 (Overall Rank: 31). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: M.Arcuri*. R: R.Hanna/ L.Bell.
29. NV-03 (Overall Rank: 32). PVI: D+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: D.Titus*. R: J.Heck.
30. PA-11 (Overall Rank: 33). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: P.Kanjorski*. R: L.Barletta.
31. WV-01 (Overall Rank: 34). PVI: R+9. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: M.Oliverio. R: D.McKinley.
32. WI-07 (Overall Rank: 36). PVI: D+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: . R: S.Duffy/ D.Mielke.
33. PA-07 (Overall Rank: 37). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: B.Lentz. R: P.Meehan.
34. SC-05 (Overall Rank: 38). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: J.Spratt*. R: M.Mulvaney.
35. IN-09 (Overall Rank: 39). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: B.Hill*. R: T.Young.
36. OH-16 (Overall Rank: 40). PVI: R+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: J.Boccieri*. R: J.Renacci.
37. MI-07 (Overall Rank: 41). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: M.Schauer*. R: T.Walberg.
38. SD-AL (Overall Rank: 42). PVI: R+9. Total Vulnerability Score: 212. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: S.Herseth Sandlin*. R: K.Noem.
39. IL-14 (Overall Rank: 43). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 212. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: B.Foster*. R: R.Hultgren.
40. IA-03 (Overall Rank: 44). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 190. Consensus Rating: Tossup/Lean D Hold. D: L.Boswell*. R: B.Zaun.
41. AZ-05 (Overall Rank: 45). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 182. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: H.Mitchell*. R: D.Schweikert/ J.Ward/ E.Wnuck/ C.Salvino/ S.Bitter-Smith/ M.Spinks/ L.Gentry/ J.Smith.
42. AZ-01 (Overall Rank: 46). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 177. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: A.Kirkpatrick*. R: P.Gosar/ R.Bowers/ B.Beauchamp/ S.Mehta/ J.Jensen/ J.Jaraczewski.
43. PA-08 (Overall Rank: 47). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 175. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: P.Murphy*. R: M.Fitzpatrick.
44. AL-02 (Overall Rank: 48). PVI: R+16. Total Vulnerability Score: 170. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: B.Bright*. R: M.Roby.
45. NC-08 (Overall Rank: 49). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 170. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: L.Kissell*. R: H.Johnson.
46. PA-10 (Overall Rank: 50). PVI: R+8. Total Vulnerability Score: 162. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: C.Carney*. R: T.Marino.
47. GA-08 (Overall Rank: 51). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 162. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: J.Marshall*. R: A.Scott.
48. NY-19 (Overall Rank: 52). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 162. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: J.Hall*. R: N.Hayworth/ D.McFadden/ N.DiCarlo/ T.DeChiaro/ J.MacEnroe.
49. CA-11 (Overall Rank: 53). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 162. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: J.McNerney*. R: D.Harmer.
50. IN-02 (Overall Rank: 54). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 160. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: J.Donnelly*. R: J.Walorski.
51. ID-01 (Overall Rank: 55). PVI: R+18. Total Vulnerability Score: 155. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: W.Minnick*. R: R.Labrador.
52. OH-18 (Overall Rank: 56). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 155. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: Z.Space*. R: B.Gibbs.
53. TX-23 (Overall Rank: 57). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 155. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: C.Rodriguez*. R: F.Canseco.
54. AZ-08 (Overall Rank: 58). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 155. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: G.Giffords*. R: J.Kelly/ B.Miller/ V.Goss/ T.Carlson.
55. WI-08 (Overall Rank: 59). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 147. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: S.Kagen*. R: R.Ribble/ M.Trager/ R.Roth/ T.McCormick/ M.Savard/ A.Williams/ K.Thomas.
56. MO-04 (Overall Rank: 61). PVI: R+14. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: I.Skelton*. R: V.Hartzler.
57. VA-09 (Overall Rank: 62). PVI: R+10. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: R.Boucher*. R: M.Griffith.
58. KY-06 (Overall Rank: 63). PVI: R+9. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: B.Chandler*. R: A.Barr.
59. CO-03 (Overall Rank: 64). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: J.Salazar*. R: S.Tipton.
60. PA-12 (Overall Rank: 65). PVI: E. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: M.Critz*. R: T.Burns.
61. NJ-03 (Overall Rank: 66). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: J.Adler*. R: J.Runyan.
62. NM-01 (Overall Rank: 67). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: M.Heinrich*. R: J.Barela.
63. OH-13 (Overall Rank: 68). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: B.Sutton*. R: T.Ganley.
64. MA-10 (Overall Rank: 70). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: B.Keating/ R.O'Leary. R: J.Perry/ J.Malone/ R.Kasperowicz.
65. TN-04 (Overall Rank: 71). PVI: R+12. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold. D: L.Davis*. R: S.DesJarlais.
66. NY-20 (Overall Rank: 72). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: S.Murphy*. R: C.Gibson.
67. NY-23 (Overall Rank: 74). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: B.Owens*. R: D.Hoffman/ M.Doheny.
68. NY-01 (Overall Rank: 75). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: T.Bishop*. R: R.Altschuler/ C.Cox/ G.Demos/ G.Berntsen.
69. OR-05 (Overall Rank: 77). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. D: K.Schrader*. R: S.Bruun.
70. VA-11 (Overall Rank: 78). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. D: G.Connolly*. R: K.Fimian.
71. FL-22 (Overall Rank: 79). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. D: R.Klein*/ P.Renneisen. R: A.West/ D.Brady.
72. NY-13 (Overall Rank: 80). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 95. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: M.McMahon*. R: M.Grimm/ M.Allegretti.
73. MI-09 (Overall Rank: 81). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 95. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: G.Peters*. R: A.Raczkowski.
74. CA-47 (Overall Rank: 82). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 95. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: Lo.Sanchez*. R: V.Tran.
75. WA-02 (Overall Rank: 83). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 90. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: R.Larsen*/ L.Kalb/ D.McGinness. R: J.Koster/ J.Carmack.
76. PA-17 (Overall Rank: 84). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: T.Holden*. R: D.Argall.
77. NY-25 (Overall Rank: 86). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: D.Maffei*. R: A.Buerkle/ D.Gay/ M.Paolini.
78. KY-03 (Overall Rank: 87). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: J.Yarmuth*. R: T.Lally.
79. CT-04 (Overall Rank: 88). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: J.Himes*. R: D.Debicella.
80. MN-01 (Overall Rank: 90). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: T.Walz*. R: R.Demmer.
81. CT-05 (Overall Rank: 91). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: C.Murphy*. R: S.Caliguri.
82. CO-07 (Overall Rank: 92). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: E.Perlmutter*. R: R.Frazier.
83. WI-03 (Overall Rank: 93). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: R.Kind*. R: D.Kapanke/ B.Evers.
84. NC-11 (Overall Rank: 95). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: H.Shuler*. R: J.Miller.
85. PA-04 (Overall Rank: 96). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: J.Altmire*. R: K.Rothfus.
86. IL-17 (Overall Rank: 99). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: P.Hare*. R: B.Schilling.
87. IL-08 (Overall Rank: 101). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 50. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: M.Bean*. R: J.Walsh.
88. CA-18 (Overall Rank: 102). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 50. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: D.Cardoza*. R: M.Berryhill.
89. RI-01 (Overall Rank: 104). PVI: D+14. Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: D.Ciccilline/ W.Lynch/ J.Brien. R: J.Loughlin.
90. WV-03 (Overall Rank: 105). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: N.Rahall*. R: E.Maynard.
91. AR-04 (Overall Rank: 107). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 35. Consensus Rating: . D: M.Ross*. R: B.Rankin.
92. OH-06 (Overall Rank: 108). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 35. Consensus Rating: . D: C.Wilson*. R: B.Johnson.
93. GA-12 (Overall Rank: 109). PVI: D+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 35. Consensus Rating: . D: J.Barrow*/ R.Thomas. R: R.McKinney.
94. IA-01 (Overall Rank: 110). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 35. Consensus Rating: . D: B.Braley*. R: B.Lange.
95. NC-07 (Overall Rank: 111). PVI: R+. Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Consensus Rating: . D: . R: .
96. NC-02 (Overall Rank: 112). PVI: . Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Consensus Rating: . D: . R: .
97. GA-02 (Overall Rank: 113). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Consensus Rating: . D: S.Bishop*. R: M.Keown.
98. CA-20 (Overall Rank: 114). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Consensus Rating: . D: J.Costa*. R: J.Vidak.
99. OR-01 (Overall Rank: 115). PVI: D+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Consensus Rating: . D: D.Wu*. R: R.Cornilles.
100. UT-02 (Overall Rank: 117). PVI: R+. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: . R: .
101. NY-04 (Overall Rank: 118). PVI: . Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: . R: .
102. NJ-12 (Overall Rank: 120). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: R.Holt*. R: S.Sipprelle.
103. MO-03 (Overall Rank: 121). PVI: D+8. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: R.Carnahan*. R: E.Martin.
GOP Seats
1. LA-02 (Overall Rank: 5). PVI: D+25. Total Vulnerability Score: 315. Consensus Rating: Lean D Takeover. D: C.Richmond/ J.LaFonta. R: J.Cao*.
2. DE-AL (Overall Rank: 6). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 300. Consensus Rating: Lean D Takeover. D: J.Carney/ S.Spencer. R: G.Urquhart/ K.Wade/ R.Izzo/ M.Rollins.
3. HI-01 (Overall Rank: 22). PVI: D+9. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: C.Hanabusa/ R.Castillo. R: C.Djou*/ C.Amsterdam/ J.Giuffre.
4. IL-10 (Overall Rank: 35). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: D.Seals. R: R.Dold.
5. FL-25 (Overall Rank: 60). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold. D: J.Garcia/ L.Meurice. R: D.Rivera/ P.Crespo/ M.Cancio.
6. CA-03 (Overall Rank: 69). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold. D: A.Bera. R: D.Lungren*.
7. PA-15 (Overall Rank: 73). PVI: D+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold. D: J.Callahan. R: C.Dent*.
8. WA-08 (Overall Rank: 76). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely R Hold. D: S.Del Bene/ T.Cramer. R: D.Reichert*/ E.Huber.
9. PA-06 (Overall Rank: 85). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: M.Trivedi. R: J.Gerlach*.
10. NE-02 (Overall Rank: 89). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: T.White. R: L.Terry*.
11. MN-06 (Overall Rank: 94). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: T.Clark. R: M.Bachmann*.
12. OH-12 (Overall Rank: 97). PVI: E. Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: P.Brooks. R: P.Tiberi*.
13. CA-45 (Overall Rank: 98). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: S.Pougnet. R: M.Bono-Mack*.
14. AZ-03 (Overall Rank: 100). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 50. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: J.Hulburd. R: B.Quayle/ V.Parker/ J.Waring/ S.Crump/ E.Winkler/ P.Gorman/ B.Branch.
15. FL-12 (Overall Rank: 103). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: L.Edwards/ D.Tudor. R: D.Ross/ J.Lindsey.
16. AL-05 (Overall Rank: 106). PVI: R+11. Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: S.Raby. R: M.Brooks.
17. MI-03 (Overall Rank: 116). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: P.Miles. R: J.Amash.
18. CA-44 (Overall Rank: 119). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: B.Hedrick. R: K.Calvert*.